AEK could not score and kept Doxas to nil. Form Lab right with unders here.
Galatasary won 4-1, my highly speculative 3-1 nearly came off. Istanbul did manage to score.
1-1 insurance bet wise in the Spurs match as WBA were again gallant losers. Analysis spot on " this has an eerily familiar feel to recent apparent mismatches which have seen one team defend to the hilt. Spurs eventually for me I feel" 1-0 eventually for Spurs.
Wigan v Sunderland - well I could not have seen 1-4 final score and left this well alone.
Amazingly City scored 3 to nil against Liverpool. Not what I envisioned in another of those clashes where the best on the day wins.
315pm - PAOK v Levadiakos - 1.35 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 09.01.2010 | D1 | Levadiakos | 0-2 | PAOK Salonica | |
| 30.08.2009 | D1 | PAOK Salonica | 3-0 | Levadiakos | |
| 14.02.2009 | D1 | Levadiakos | 0-3 | PAOK Salonica | |
| 25.10.2008 | D1 | PAOK Salonica | 3-1 | Levadiakos |
Only 1 2010 head to head suggests one of these 2 are newcomers. And given the odds, it would seem to be the away side. Comfortable wins in head to heads, consistency too. 3 goals scored twice.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 14th of 16. PAOK have played 14 matches and levadiakos 8. The latter are in a false position therefore. And we saw Doxas draw 0-0 yesterday so caution.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - PAOK -
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDLWDW - sole defeat at home v 2nd . Difficult to weigh up the bottom teams as , for some reason, they are way behind in matches played. 2 draws were 0-0 and perhaps a saver on that given this is Greece and look at AEK result yesterday. AEK have scored 3 goals in 3 home wins ( and look at their goalscoring in the head to heads)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDDLLWDDWW - 3 of the 4 defeats came away from home to 1st, 8th and 12th. Beat Doxa 0-2 away recently
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs at home. 0.57 conceded on average at home. 5 clean sheets at home and conceded only against 2nd and 4th.
STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat, 5 overall. Have scored in the last 3 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Levadiakos - note they have only played 8 matches.
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDW - lost 2-1 away v AEK, draws 1-1 v 4th and 6th and a 0-1 win v 7th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLWDDLLW - 2 wins, both 1-0. Have lost to 1st and 3rd. Drew 1-1 with 4th and 6th and playing 5th today.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs away from home. Have scored in all aways ( 1 goal only)Failed to score in 3 of last 5.
STREAKS - scored in last 4 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the head to heads and PAOK's record at home indicates a potential by them of scoring 3 minimum against the likes of Levadiakos, but Lev have scored in all aways and also drew 1-1 with 4th and 6th. So there are mixed messages here.
Add to the fact Levadiakos have played 8 to PAOK's 14, and this is a niggly game.
VALUE PUNTS - the value must lie in under 2.5 goals surely , as the market is aware PAOK can score 3 against this lot.
Correct scores? Well 0-0, 1-1 would be the biggest odds. 3-0, 3-1 would be even more speculative.
Trading angle? Tough to call as it is rather conflicting. 25% overs away from home and 5 clean sheets for home side at home signal a potential tight early affair?
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: PAOK have won 9/11 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 65% of away matches against top-six teams since 2006-07. PAOK have scored first in 7/11 home matches.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - home clean sheet v promoted
2) - home ht win v all
3) - home win to nil v promoted
4pm - Orduspor v Fenerbahce - 1.74 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 12.09.2011 | D1 | Fenerbahçe SK | 1-0 | Orduspor |
31st minute winner on 12th September. Will it be this tight away from home?
LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 2nd. Galatasary have been eating their weetabix this season, 5 points ahead. This falls therefore into the "must-ish win" category for fenerbahce.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - ORDUSPOR
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDDLLL - wins have come against 4th and 10th , defeats against 1st, 7th and 8th and draws v 12th, 15th and 16th. All home losses came in last 3 matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDDLLLLLLL - talk about the wheels coming off - all defeats v top 9 home and away, 5 away and 4 at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% overs at home. Have failed to score in half of the matches. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - current losing streak of 7 overall, no win in 10 overall. No draw in 7 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWDLDLWD - a bit of a wobble recently away. 2 defeats against 1st and 8th away, and wins v 7th, 9th, 12th and 15th. Playing 14th today.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDDWLWDWLWWD - only 2 losses this season have come away v 1st and 8th, suggesting Fenerbahce should not lose against 14th
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 3 clean sheets in a row. Strong trend towards unders so if you think Fener will win, then factor this in ( i.e. 0-1, 0-2 wins are the only way Fenerbahce can win under 2.5 goals.)
STREAKS - 3 without conceding overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to head, albeit extremely small sample, points to a tight match. Fenerbahce should not lose this match and could be meeting Orduspor at an ideal time, when the latter are in the middle of a horrendous losing sequence. BUT losing runs always end eventually, but today? All of Orduspor's defeats came against top 9 home and away. Goal trends are inconclusive. Although once reaching this losing run, Orduspor have had 3 over 2.5 goal matches in their last 4.
FORM LAB
• -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Orduspor home matches and -1.5 goals in 4/8 Orduspor home matches. Fenerbahce have won 9/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
530pm - Olympiakos v Atromitos - 1.24 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 10.04.2011 | D1 | Atromitos | 3-1 | Olympiakos Pireus | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | Olympiakos Pireus | 2-1 | Atromitos | |
| 28.02.2010 | D1 | Olympiakos Pireus | 2-0 | Atromitos | |
| 31.10.2009 | D1 | Atromitos | 0-1 | Olympiakos Pireus |
What do we make of Atromitos winning, quite convincingly, in April 2011 at home? Seems normal for Oly at home to score 2 when meeting this lot.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 4th, Oly have actually played 2 matches more than 2nd placed Pana.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Oly
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDDWWW - unbeaten at home and 2 draws both score draws. Beat 5th and 6th 2-1 and drew 2-2 with 7th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDLWWWWW - solid run , all wins to nil and minimum scored 2 . Have drawn 1-1 with 2nd and 3rd home and away, and beat 5th 2-1. A feeling that 1-1 and 2-1 should be included if doing correct scores?
GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches.Have kept clean sheets in last 5 matches, all wins. Have failed to score in only 1 match this season.Have scored 2 exactly in 5 home matches.
STREAKS - 3 match winning streak at home. no draw in 6 overall. No defeat in 7 at home. 5 clean sheets in a row.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - atromitos
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDDLL - only away losses came last 2 matches conceding 3 goals against 5th and 6th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWWDLWLW - last 2 wins came at home and both 1-0 against 3rd and 8th.
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs away from home. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3, both home matches. Failed to score in only 2 matches.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win. Have conceded in last 3 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it seems that olympiakos score 2 at home when meeting Atromitos, and couple that with atromitos losing 3-1 and 3-0 against 5th and 6th and we have the potential for a 2-0, 3-0, 2-1 kind of scoreline. Hope for overs? - yes I know this is dour defensive Greece! Oly have a great habit of winning to nil of late. Will this sequence continue?
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Olympiakos have won 18/20 home matches while Atromitos have had L/L double results in 4/6 away matches against Big Three teams. Olympiakos have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - home ht win v top 6
2) - home win by 2 v all
3) - home win/win v top 6
630pm - Besiktas v Eskisehirspor - 1.71 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 10.09.2011 | D1 | Eskişehirspor | 2-1 | Besiktas JK | |
| 16.05.2011 | D1 | Besiktas JK | 3-1 | Eskişehirspor | |
| 10.12.2010 | D1 | Eskişehirspor | 2-0 | Besiktas JK | |
| 27.03.2010 | D1 | Besiktas JK | 3-2 | Eskişehirspor | |
| 24.10.2009 | D1 | Eskişehirspor | 0-1 | Besiktas JK | |
| 26.04.2009 | D1 | Eskişehirspor | 0-2 | Besiktas JK |
talk about a mixed bag,alternate wins for both teams in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 4th , could be a tight match.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Besiktas
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLDWDWDW - 1 win only at home v 9th 0-2. All bar one of the wins came against bottom 6. 2 draws against 1st and 2nd and not played 4th to 7th inclusive.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLDWWWDDW - 2 of 3 defeats came away from home. Great recent run but goalscoring stuttering. 1-1-1 scored last 3 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs at home. 5 of last 7 unders -
STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat. have scored in last 6 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - eskis
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDWLWWD - losses away v 1st, 2nd and 14th. Playing 3rd today. Losses v 1st and 2nd 2-0 and 1-0.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDWWLWWWWWD - strong emphasis on defense with 4 consecutive 1-0 wins and a 0-0 last match. Have played 6 matches against top 7 home and away and failed to score in 6 of those matches. Did beat besiktas this season 2-1 at home, the only match they scored in v top 7.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 5 consecutive clean sheets. Overwhelming under 2.5 goals trend this season overall.
STREAKS - no goal conceded in 5 consecutive matches.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 3rd v 4th immediately, and logically, assumes a tight match.All bar one of Besiktas wins came v bottom 6. Lay Besiktas initially? add to the fact Eskis have kept 5 clean sheets in a row and that lay could pay off. Besiktas have only scored 1 in each of last 3 matches. And Eskis have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches v top 7 home and away.
This all points to under 2.5 goals, 0-0 back initially. But then this is not congruous with the head to heads which clearly point to the likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
So decide, does recent form supercede head to heads? At 1.71 Besiktas are layable initially in the hope Eskis recent clean sheet run continues.
FORM LAB
• 1st half outcome: Besiktas have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams as have Eskisehirspor in 8/13 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/14 Eskisehirspor away matches against top-six teams.
Top 3 Indicators
1) - Over 3.5 goals match v all
2) - over 2.5 match goals v top 6
3) - both teams score v top half
So the Form lab has , rather robotically, gone purely with overs and not accounted, as I have, for recent goals form.
8pm - Everton v Bolton - 1.53 home - and you don't need telling that we are in a unique period where true form is not apparent because of the unnatural fixture list.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.11.2011 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 0-2 | Everton FC | |
| 13.02.2011 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 2-0 | Everton FC | |
| 10.11.2010 | PR | Everton FC | 1-1 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 20.03.2010 | PR | Everton FC | 2-0 | Bolton Wanderers | |
| 25.10.2009 | PR | Bolton Wanderers | 3-2 | Everton FC | |
| 07.02.2009 | PR | Everton FC | 3-0 | Bolton Wanderers |
Everton unbeaten at home.
LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 20th and Everton have 2 matches in hand over the vast majority.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Everton
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWLLWLDW - inconsistent at home. wins have come against 12th, 16th and 18th .Everton have scored 0-0-2-0-1-1 in their last 6 home matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWLLWWLLDWDW - all bar one of the defeats has come home and away against the top 8. This suggests an ability to cope with bottom side.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs at home. 1 in 3 matches at home under 2.5 goals. Everton have overwhelmingly score most goals ( 10) in the last quarter of an hour of matches. Everton score 74% of goals in the 2nd half, and lead at half time in only 11% of matches.Everton have only scored 2 goals in the first halfhour of matches, suggesting if there were to be a goal, Bolton would be the likeliest scorers. Last 7 matches unders. Everton have scored 0-0-1-1-1-1 last 6 and 1-1-1-1 during this unique Xmas period.Everton have kept 2 clean sheets in last 3, and only 3 clean sheets all season. Strong emphasis on defense.
STREAKS - no defeat in 4 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bolton
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLWLLLLW - no draw away . Recent win 1-2 v Blackburn.Wins have come away to 17th, 18th and 19th. All defeats saw 3-3-3-3-2-2 conceded but ask yourself whether Everton are 2/3 goal goalscorers?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLLWLLLLLWLD - win v Blackburn and draw v Wolves some solace. 1-0-0-1-0-2-0-1 scored recently. Most likely not to score 2 goals!
GOAL TRENDS - 89% overs away from home based on the concession rate. Only 2 clean sheets all season. Have failed to score in 4 of the last 7.
STREAKS - 9 away without a draw. Have conceded in last 8 away and last 8 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Everton unbeaten at home.Have failed to score in 3 of last 6, scoring 1-1-2 in other 3 matches. This hints at laying Everton if you are seeking value. Struggle scoring? And 33% overs at home backs up this goal barren spell.Everton scored a massive 10 in the last 1/4 hour and 74% of goals in the 2nd half. So this may point to a short term 0-0 back to lay, and a lay of 0-0 at half time if that is the scoreline.During the Xmas fixture list, Everton have scored 1-1-1-1.
Bolton's 3 wins v 17th, 18th and 19th and lost all home and away v top 9 - Everton are 11th with a game or 2 in hand of near rivals. Bolton concede 3 or 2 in away defeats but can Everton do this? Not on recent form. Bolton are most unlikely to score 2 goals if recent form anything to go by.
89% overs away from home because teams have been scoring 3/2 in those defeats. Again we ask if Everton have 3 goals in them?
CONCLUSION - goal trends are incongruous , and I cannot see Everton scoring 3 goals . I see , I hope, a tight early encounter, and 0-0 possible for a short while. Goals could all come in the 2nd half so half time traders get stuck in. Bolton unlikely to win, all wins v bottom 4, and they themselves are bottom. Under 2.5 goals a possible but I am worried at Bolton's concession rate away. 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 possible scorelines today.Both teams seem incapable of late of scoring 2. If this continues then we have a small band of scorelines to choose from. 1.53 looks too short for me for Everton initially although they are unlikely to lose this match.
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Both of these sides have struggled defensively this season. Everton have kept just 4/18 clean sheets while Bolton have conceded in 17/19 league fixtures. Since the start of last season, both teams have scored in 17/28 of Bolton’s home matches. Likewise, both sides have netted in 16/28 of Everton’s home games since 2010/11.
TOP 3 indicators
1) - Home draw/win v Bottom half
2) - Home win v all
3) - Home score last v all
8pm - Newcastle v Man Utd - 1.77 away - and so the ball bounces from Spurs' court into Man Utd's. Spurs won and heaped the pressure on United. City won too . This means that United are vulnerable with anything other than a win here as regards the title.It truly is a 3 horse race as I write today.United must keep it that way.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.11.2011 | PR | Manchester United | 1-1 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 19.04.2011 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 0-0 | Manchester United | |
| 16.08.2010 | PR | Manchester United | 3-0 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 04.03.2009 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 1-2 | Manchester United |
United unbeaten in last 2 visits. Team news important as tinkering likely, especially from United.(Man)
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 2nd. A win takes Man Utd equal on points but 2nd on goal difference to City.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Newcastle
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDWWLDL - recent defeats v Chelsea and WBA saw Newcastle concede 3 on both occasions. A worrying trend as you will see below. Have played 3 of top 5, 2-2 v Spuds, 0-3 loss to Chelsea and 0-0 v Arsenal. A draw the best likely outcome if this continues.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLDLLDLWL - a great unbeaten run ended, and how. Most worryingly, Newcastle have conceded 3-1-3-4-0-3-0-3 - they kept clean sheets against Swansea and Bolton. But notice how many recent matches Newcastle conceded 3 or 4 in . A worrying pattern. Have conceded 2 and 3 against 3rd and 4th.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home. Failed to score in only 4 this season. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 4 matches. Have failed to score in 1/3rd home matches.Newcastle lead at half time in only 21% of matches. Demba Ba the really key man, scoring 14 this season and next best scored 3. Now this may be the same as Van Persie at Arsenal. An over reliance on a single player a great cause for concern.
STREAKS - no win in 3 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Man Utd
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDDWWWWW - solid unbeaten. Have only played 2 of the top 10 away, 2 1-1 draws v Liverpool and Stoke. Ominous? Wins v 11th, 12th and 13th were all 0-1. It must be said the Man Utd sequence of 1-0's has ended with 4-2-5-5-2 scored.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWDWWWWWL - 2-3 home loss to Blackburn a superbly profitable enhanced trade as Blackburn were 0-2 up. 3 consecutive clean sheets prior to that aberration. United have not lost 2 on the trot this season, in fact they have only lost 2 matches all season.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. 3 1-0's, a 1-1 and a 2-0 helped United with the unders quota away but they have certainly stopped 0-1 wins recently.United have scored in all matches this season, so this could be a good stat for reactive traders if a sustained 0-0.Concede 0.33 on average away - standout stat.United have scored 17 and conceded 2 in the first half hour of matches this season.United score first in 84% of matches. Opponent leads at half time in only 10% of matches. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals as those 0-1's have been banished. 7 clean sheets in the last 10, but what made United concede 3 against Blackburn? Was it just the fact Yakubu was on form that day?
STREAKS - 5 match away winning streak No draw in 6 overall. Have scored in 19 matches this season.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - like Spurs yesterday, motivation may supercede form to ensure a United win. That's not to say there's anything wrong with away from. 5 match winning streak. Newcastle have conceded 3-1-3-4-0-3-0-3 recently. And with United finding the onion bag with regularity, Newcastle could be on the end of another 3/4 goal loss ( and just to make things difficult, they could replicate the recent 0-0 v Arsenal). 3 clean sheets in last 4 for Man utd. Over reliance on Demba Ba for Newcastle could make them vulnerable if he is shut out.
Man Utd likely to score first. I would go with overs today as I feel Man Utd's 33% overs stat away was largely down to their 1-0 winning phase which has ended now.
SPECULATORS - 0-3, 1-3 0-4 to United in the hope Newcastle continue to ship 3/4 goals as they have done.
FORM LAB
• HT/FT: Newcastle have picked up just one point from their last three home matches and both defeats were L/L doubles. The hosts are also winless in seven home games against top-six teams. Man Utd have been stronger on the road than at home this season. The visitors have won 7/9 unbeaten games with W/W doubles in their last five.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home draw v top 6
2) - Home concede last v too half
3) - Home draw/draw v top 6
9pm - Barcelona v Osasuna - 1.09 home - Cup match and the odds say it all. 3-2 to Real yesterday so neutral goals bet incase Osasuna are up for a scrap.
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