Saturday 7 January 2012

7/1

The betting gods do read this blog! Oldham only went and scored first. Lay of Liverpool nailed, albeit for a short time. Enhanced traders heaven too but you had to be in and out in a flash as Liverpool equalised quickly, and normal service was resumed.
Unders came in the Torino match with a very welcome 0-0. Lay of Torino an obvious success too.

I'm stuck today really as far as researching is concerned , as it is FA Cup day. You should know by now that we cannot realistically research Cup matches. What I will do is shortlist some matches which stand out and relay FA Cup form only, via www.soccerway.com.

This is a day where you take an opinion based on gut instinct rather than rely on any form, recent or Cup specific.IS Kevin Pullein's contention that there is no romance left in the Fa Cup accurate? We should not expect surprises, he contends especially with Premiership sides v minnows.

1230pm - Birmingham v Wolves - 2.52 home. Typical of the conundrum we face. Local derby, Brum are favourites and Wolves would much prefer Premiership survival to any fancy cup run.

Tue16/01/07FACNewcastle United1 - 5Birmingham CityMore info
Sat27/01/07FACBirmingham City2 - 3ReadingMore info
Sat05/01/08FACHuddersfield Town2 - 1Birmingham CityMore info
Tue13/01/09FACBirmingham City0 - 2Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACNottingham Forest0 - 0Birmingham CityMore info
Tue12/01/10FACBirmingham City1 - 0Nottingham ForestView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACEverton1 - 2Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat13/02/10FACDerby County1 - 2Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat06/03/10FACPortsmouth2 - 0Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACMillwall1 - 4Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACBirmingham City3 - 2Coventry CityView eventsMore info
Sat19/02/11FACBirmingham City3 - 0Sheffield Wedn…View eventsMore info
Sat12/03/11FACBirmingham City2 - 3Bolton Wanderers

Only 1 draw recently for Brum an angle in , in this FA Cup match?

Fri07/01/05FACBirmingham City3 - 0Leeds UnitedMore info
Mon16/01/06FACBirmingham City2 - 0Torquay UnitedMore info
Mon06/02/06FACBirmingham City2 - 1ReadingMore info
Mon20/03/06FACBirmingham City0 - 7LiverpoolMore info
Fri05/01/07FACBirmingham City2 - 2Newcastle UnitedMore info
Sat27/01/07FACBirmingham City2 - 3ReadingMore info
Tue13/01/09FACBirmingham City0 - 2Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Tue12/01/10FACBirmingham City1 - 0Nottingham ForestView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACBirmingham City3 - 2Coventry CityView eventsMore info
Sat19/02/11FACBirmingham City3 - 0Sheffield Wedn…View eventsMore info
Sat12/03/11FACBirmingham City2 - 3Bolton Wanderers

General trend at home for goals in the FA Cup.

Tue13/01/09FACBirmingham City0 - 2Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Sat24/01/09FACWolverhampton …1 - 2MiddlesbroughView eventsMore info
Sun03/01/10FACTranmere Rovers0 - 1Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACWolverhampton …2 - 2Crystal PalaceView eventsMore info
Tue02/02/10FACCrystal Palace3 - 1Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACDoncaster Rovers2 - 2Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Tue18/01/11FACWolverhampton …5 - 0Doncaster RoversView eventsMore info
Sun30/01/11FACWolverhampton …0 - 1Stoke City

Against the right opponents, Wolves like to let loose too with the goals.

Fri28/01/05FACArsenal2 - 0Wolverhampton …More info
Mon15/01/07FACOldham Athletic0 - 2Wolverhampton …More info
Sat26/01/08FACWatford1 - 4Wolverhampton …More info
Sat16/02/08FACCardiff City2 - 0Wolverhampton …More info
Tue13/01/09FACBirmingham City0 - 2Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Sun03/01/10FACTranmere Rovers0 - 1Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Tue02/02/10FACCrystal Palace3 - 1Wolverhampton …View eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACDoncaster Rovers2 - 2Wolverhampton …

Frustrating bout of 2-0's have squashed the over 2.5 goals stats. Will the very recent 2 match over 3.5 goal habit continue against a Brum side who have scored 4-4-3-2 in their last 4 FA Cup matches?
Remember to account for the time of the year, off the back of a tough recent fixture list for the Premiership sides.Will Mick McCarthy field his strongest side? If he doesn't, how will this impact the goals count?

1pm - Versailles v Dijon - 1.28 away - French cup - Dijon are mustard! Dijon are top flight and Versailles non league it would seem. I know little about either side. Either go with the odds or not. 4 matches without winning in the league and today is an ideal time to break that sequence? Dangerous though as we are unfamiliar with the team so cannot tell if it will be a weakened side.
3pm - Barnsley v Swansea - 2.42 away. Swansea have really impressed me, and if taking this match seriously, their defense could set up a possible victory at tasty odds. The odds though do suggest team changes, coming off the back of the Festive mayhem fixture list.. Barnsley have lost 4 of their last 5 in the league and have lost their last 4 FA Cup fixtures without scoring. They face a Swans side adept at clean sheets. At home, Barnsely have been tight last 2, with a 1-0 win and 1-0 loss, ( v Cardiff, another welsh side)

Sat14/02/09FACSwansea City1 - 1FulhamView eventsMore info
Tue24/02/09FACFulham2 - 1Swansea CityView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACLeicester City2 - 1Swansea CityView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACSwansea City4 - 0Colchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACSwansea City1 - 2Leyton Orient

Perhaps a hint at where Swansea's priorities might lie? An instistence on 2-1 defeats in the FA Cup and quick exits from the competition.The Premiership is the place to be, above any showcase final  surely?

Tue13/01/09FACHiston1 - 2Swansea CityView eventsMore info
Sat24/01/09FACPortsmouth0 - 2Swansea CityView eventsMore info
Tue24/02/09FACFulham2 - 1Swansea CityView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACLeicester City2 - 1Swansea City

Last 2 2-1's away down to 80th+ minute winners for the opponents. This new found Swans defensive bent may end that. BUT team news key. Likely surely to be changes from the Swans premiership first XI?
3pm - Brighton v Wrexham - 1.56 home
3pm - Everton v Tamworth - 1.14 home - shorter price than Liverpool and all we can hope for , for getting value, is Tamworth to score first. Can Everton replicate the 5-1 for Liverpool yesterday.

Sat02/01/10FACEverton3 - 1Carlisle UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACEverton1 - 2Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACScunthorpe United1 - 5EvertonView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACEverton1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat19/02/11FACChelsea1 - 1PEvertonView eventsMore info
Tue01/03/11FACEverton0 - 1Reading

2 draws and a 1-0 loss in the last 3 FA Cup matches, albeit with Chelsea twice.

Sat02/01/10FACEverton3 - 1Carlisle UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACEverton1 - 2Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACEverton1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue01/03/11FACEverton0 - 1Reading

Poor recent run for Everton at home in the cup with a lack of goals but I suppose the 3 against Carlisle is proof they can let loose against the right opponents.Tamworth have lost their last 4 matches, 3 in the Conference and 1 in the FA Trophy.  They have scored 2 in each of their last 3 FA Cup away matches, but against Everton, and their devastating new inform striker, erm, Tim Howard?
Look out for team changes.


3pm - Forfar v Aberdeen - 1.44 away
3pm - Fulham v Charlton - 1.5 home - a relative solidity about Fulham of late, as seen with recent home Premiership performances. This should justify the favouratism today if the recent tough fixture list has not taken its toll, or resulted in wholesale changes. Something tells me there is relative solidity to this trade today.

Sat02/01/10FACFulham1 - 0Swindon TownView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACAccrington Stanley1 - 3FulhamView eventsMore info
Sun14/02/10FACFulham4 - 0Notts CountyView eventsMore info
Sat06/03/10FACFulham0 - 0Tottenham HotspurMore info
Wed24/03/10FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 1FulhamView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACFulham6 - 2Peterborough U…View eventsMore info
Sun30/01/11FACFulham4 - 0Tottenham HotspurView eventsMore info
Sun20/02/11FACFulham0 - 1Bolton Wanderers

Have been lucky to have largely played at home where they have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches. They conceded 2 against Peterborough when 4-0 up.

Sat27/11/10FACCharlton Athletic2 - 2Luton TownView eventsMore info
Thu09/12/10FACLuton Town1 - 3Charlton AthleticView eventsMore info
Sun09/01/11FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 0Charlton AthleticView eventsMore info
Sun13/11/11FACHalifax Town0 - 4Charlton AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACCharlton Athletic2 - 0Carlisle United

Charlton's recent 3-0 loss to Spurs in the FA Cup is perhaps a marker for Fulham.Note all goals in that game 2nd half goals which might hint at the Charlton tactic today, and note their 2 clean sheets after that Spuds match.Likely to be tough to break down eventually, and then likely to capitulate.
3pm - Gillingham v Stoke - 1.67 away - again the mystery re team selection unfolds here with Stoke another Premiership side coming off the back of the tough Xmas fixture list. A first team would easily cope with gillingham, with a possible win to nil.

Tue19/01/10FACAccrington Stanley1 - 0GillinghamView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACGillingham0 - 2Dover AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACAFC Bournemouth3 - 3GillinghamView eventsMore info
Tue22/11/11FACGillingham3 - 2AFC BournemouthView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACLeyton Orient0 - 1Gillingham

The Gills lost 1-2 to a 79th minute penalty at home v Villa in the Cup, which might hint at an ability to stay in this game today?

Tue18/01/11FACCardiff City0 - 2EStoke CityView eventsMore info
Sun30/01/11FACWolverhampton …0 - 1Stoke CityView eventsMore info
Sat19/02/11FACStoke City3 - 0Brighton & Hov…View eventsMore info
Sun13/03/11FACStoke City2 - 1West Ham UnitedView eventsMore info
Sun17/04/11FACBolton Wanderers0 - 5Stoke CityView eventsMore info
Sat14/05/11FACManchester City1 - 0Stoke City

Stoke like the cup and its clean sheets all the way apart from v City recently. Sign of things to come today?

3pm - Hearts v Auchinleck Talbot - 1.1 home there's only 1 Auchinleck Talbot. Sounds like the kind of place where they pour 25 year old malt whisky on their porridge . 1.1 signals goals, and following Barca's cues at 1.09 earlier in the week, 4-0 or thereabouts is a starting point.
3pm - MK Dons v QPR - 2.84 away, and QPR are not favourites. This suggests wholesale changes and a focus on Premiership survival, or glass half full it suggests a great value price if playing anything resembling the Premiership side.Local derby. QPR have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and have shown, I suppose, some tiredness with the Xmas fixture list. Psychologically, this match is a chance to arrest that losing sequence. But as I say the odds are suspiciously high for QPR and with MK Dons favs, we will likely not see the QPR first team.At home in the FA Cup, MK Dons have only had one draw since 2004, and that was a 90th minute goal.
QPR have not won any FA Cup matches since 2005. 3 1-0 defeats away and a 1-1 suggest they only just lose. Speculators may chance a 1-0 for MK Dons? 1-1 looks a starter for the trader ?
But we are betting blind until we see the QPR side.
3pm - Macclesfield v Bolton - 1.8 away - a fragile confidence for Bolton to be continued with a Cup run? It's a difficult call for the manager.League 2 v Premiership and signs of recovery for Bolton of late with 2 wins and a draw in last 5. again 1.8 looks high, on paper, for a League 2 outfit facing seasoned Premiership side, but factors in Bolton's horrid season, recent fixture list, and likely team changes.

Mon22/11/04FACMacclesfield Town2 - 0Alfreton TownMore info
Fri04/11/05FACMacclesfield Town1 - 1Yeovil TownMore info
Sun12/11/06FACMacclesfield Town0 - 0WalsallMore info
Fri01/12/06FACMacclesfield Town2 - 1Hartlepool UnitedMore info
Sat03/01/09FACMacclesfield Town0 - 1EvertonView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACMacclesfield Town2 - 2Southend UnitedView eventsMore info
Wed14/12/11FACMacclesfield Town1 - 0Chelmsford City

Decent enough home form in the FA Cup sees a 0-1 defeat v Premiership everton in this competition in 2009.

Sat02/01/10FACBolton Wanderers4 - 0Lincoln CityView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACBolton Wanderers2 - 0Sheffield UnitedView eventsMore info
Sun14/02/10FACBolton Wanderers1 - 1Tottenham HotspurView eventsMore info
Wed24/02/10FACTottenham Hotspur4 - 0Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACBolton Wanderers2 - 0York CityView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACBolton Wanderers0 - 0Wigan AthleticMore info
Wed16/02/11FACWigan Athletic0 - 1Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sun20/02/11FACFulham0 - 1Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sat12/03/11FACBirmingham City2 - 3Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sun17/04/11FACBolton Wanderers0 - 5Stoke City

Bolton have met more illustrious opponents away and coped with them .Defeats in this competition in last 2 years has come at the hands of Premiership sides.

3pm - Motherwell v Queens Park - 1.2 home
3pm - Norwich v Burnley - 1.95 home - Norwich at home have been superb, but I repeat that the recent fixture list might take its toll.3 draws in their last 4, all score draws, for Norwich, tells you where they are, and how they approach matches.Only Spurs, Arsenal and West Brom have scored at Delia's home turf this season.

Fri06/01/06FACNorwich City1 - 2West Ham UnitedMore info
Tue13/02/07FACNorwich CityE3 - 2BlackpoolMore info
Sat05/01/08FACNorwich City1 - 1BuryMore info
Tue13/01/09FACNorwich City0 - 1Charlton AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACNorwich City0 - 1Leyton Orient

The tradition of tight matches flows over to the FA Cup.
No draw in 19 matches in all competitions for Burnley -could this be an angle in, or is this match particularly suited to this sequence ending with a draw? Remember that Norwich have drawn 3 of last 4 in the Premiership.

Tue13/01/09FACBurnleyE2 - 1Queens Park Ra…View eventsMore info
Sat24/01/09FACWest Bromwich …2 - 2BurnleyView eventsMore info
Tue03/02/09FACBurnley3 - 1West Bromwich …View eventsMore info
Sun08/03/09FACArsenal3 - 0BurnleyView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACMilton Keynes Dons1 - 2BurnleyView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACReading1 - 0BurnleyView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACBurnley4 - 2Port ValeView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACBurnley3 - 1Burton AlbionView eventsMore info
Mon21/02/11FACWest Ham United5 - 1Burnley

A real trend towards over 2.5 goals in the FA Cup for Burnley suggests shackles loose. And this may go some way to persuading us that this match may not end in a draw.

Mon28/02/05FACBlackburn Rovers2 - 1BurnleyMore info
Fri06/01/06FACDerby County2 - 1BurnleyMore info
Mon08/01/07FACReading3 - 2BurnleyMore info
Sat03/01/09FACQueens Park Ra…0 - 0BurnleyMore info
Sat24/01/09FACWest Bromwich …2 - 2BurnleyView eventsMore info
Sun08/03/09FACArsenal3 - 0BurnleyView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACMilton Keynes Dons1 - 2BurnleyView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACReading1 - 0BurnleyView eventsMore info
Mon21/02/11FACWest Ham United5 - 1Burnley

Not the best away record in the FA Cup for Burnley.
yet again, ???? here over Norwich's team sheet, so take note.
3pm - Sheff Utd v Salisbury - 1.2 home. I have got to know the Blades recently and they are superb at home in the league.4 match winning run in league 1 and scoring 2+ regularly , Sean Bean will be a happy boy.And if he's been backing the Blades, he can now afford some acting lessons.

Tue13/01/09FACLeyton Orient1 - 4Sheffield UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat24/01/09FACSheffield United2 - 1Charlton AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat14/02/09FACSheffield United1 - 1Hull CityView eventsMore info
Thu26/02/09FACHull City2 - 1Sheffield UnitedView eventsMore info
Sun03/01/10FACSheffield United1 - 1Queens Park Ra…View eventsMore info
Tue12/01/10FACQueens Park Ra…2 - 3Sheffield UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACBolton Wanderers2 - 0Sheffield UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACSheffield United1 - 3Aston VillaView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACSheffield United3 - 0Oxford UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACSheffield United3 - 2Torquay United

The blades are another side who like to let loose in the FA Cup, be it conceding or scoring.
Conference N/S side Salisbury themselves like scoring the goals in the FA Cup

Sat23/10/10FACCorby Town3 - 0Salisbury CityView eventsMore info
Sat01/10/11FACSalisbury City3 - 0Swindon Superm…More info
Sat15/10/11FACSalisbury City3 - 1Poole TownMore info
Sat29/10/11FACBishop's Stortford1 - 2Salisbury CityView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACSalisbury City3 - 1Arlesey TownView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACSalisbury City0 - 0Grimsby TownMore info
Tue13/12/11FACGrimsby Town2 - 3ESalisbury City

Expectation for an exciting match this afternoon, with the obligatory look at the Blades team regarding changes etc. Home advantage and a team high on confidence and scoring 2+ should make for a good afternoon for Mr Bean and the Boys.
3pm - Swindon v Wigan - 2.5 away - try and get in the manager's mind here. Wigan must stay in the Premiership above any romantic cup run.. Wigan have been tough to beat against Chelsea and Liverpool of late and if bringing that into the Swindon match today, will make the 2.5 away odds quite enticing.
A good day to employ Mystic Meg, Uri Geller, or Derek Acorah to get inside the Premiership managers' heads. League 2 Swindon have only lost 1 of 18 matches and that was a 1-0.

Tue22/01/08FACBarnetP1 - 1Swindon TownMore info
Sat08/11/08FACHiston1 - 0Swindon TownView eventsMore info
Sat07/11/09FACSwindon Town1 - 0WokingView eventsMore info
Sat28/11/09FACWrexham0 - 1Swindon TownView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACFulham1 - 0Swindon TownView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACPlymouth Argyle0 - 4Swindon TownView eventsMore info
Fri26/11/10FACCrawley Town1 - 1Swindon TownView eventsMore info
Tue07/12/10FACSwindon Town2 - 3ECrawley TownView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACSwindon Town4 - 1Huddersfield TownView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACColchester United0 - 1Swindon Town

In the FA Cup ,defeats have recently only been by a solitary goal. The defeat to Crawley was after extra time.

Fri07/01/05FACDerby County2 - 1Wigan AthleticMore info
Mon16/01/06FACLeeds United3 - 3PWigan AthleticMore info
Fri27/01/06FACManchester City1 - 0Wigan AthleticMore info
Fri05/01/07FACPortsmouth2 - 1Wigan AthleticMore info
Sat05/01/08FACSunderland0 - 3Wigan AthleticMore info
Fri02/01/09FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 1Wigan AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACNotts County2 - 2Wigan AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACHull City2 - 3Wigan AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACBolton Wanderers0 - 0Wigan Athletic

Mixed bag for Wigan away in the FA Cup.
Tough match to call here because of the already discussed end of the tiresome Xmas fixture list, need to reestablish a Premiership foothold, and possible enforced-through-tiredness team changes.
3pm - Tottenham v Cheltenham - 1.18 home. Will the big boys play? Bale, Defoe, Van Der vaart?Spurs have scored 1-1-2-1-1 in last 5 - the Xmas fixture list? Last 4 defeats in the FA Cup for Spuds - 2 v Man Utd away, 0-2 after extra time v Pompey ( 0-0 full time), and 4-0 away at Fulham as recently as Jan 2011.

Tue16/01/07FACTottenham Hotspur4 - 0Cardiff CityMore info
Sat27/01/07FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 1Southend UnitedMore info
Mon19/03/07FACTottenham Hotspur1 - 2ChelseaMore info
Sat05/01/08FACTottenham Hotspur2 - 2ReadingMore info
Fri02/01/09FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 1Wigan AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACTottenham Hotspur4 - 0Peterborough U…View eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACTottenham Hotspur2 - 2Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Wed24/02/10FACTottenham Hotspur4 - 0Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Wed24/03/10FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 1FulhamView eventsMore info
Sun11/04/10FACTottenham Hotspur0 - 2EPortsmouthView eventsMore info
Sun09/01/11FACTottenham Hotspur3 - 0Charlton Athletic

Superbly consistent goalscoring at home in the FA Cup.
Only 2 defeats in 19 for Cheltenham suggest they may be able to hold on for a short while?

Tue18/11/08FACOldham Athletic0 - 1Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Tue02/12/08FACMorecambe2 - 3Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Tue13/01/09FACCheltenham Town0 - 0Doncaster RoversMore info
Tue20/01/09FACDoncaster Rovers3 - 0Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Sat07/11/09FACTorquay United3 - 1Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACCheltenham Town1 - 0MorecambeView eventsMore info
Sat27/11/10FACSouthampton3 - 0Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACTranmere Rovers0 - 1Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACLuton Town2 - 4Cheltenham Town

Cheltenham have conceded 3-3-3-2 recently away in the FA Cup and are, let me remind you, playing a Spuds team consistently scoring 2+ at home in the FA Cup.
So begin your speculative correct scores at around the 3-0 marker and work from there. Confidence in goals will be in equal proportion to the strength of the Spuds team.
3pm - West Brom v Cardiff - 1.82 home. Knee jerk and this 1.82 is layable to start with.

Sat03/01/09FACWest Bromwich …1 - 1Peterborough U…View eventsMore info
Tue13/01/09FACPeterborough U…0 - 2West Bromwich …View eventsMore info
Sat24/01/09FACWest Bromwich …2 - 2BurnleyView eventsMore info
Tue03/02/09FACBurnley3 - 1West Bromwich …View eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACHuddersfield Town0 - 2West Bromwich …View eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACWest Bromwich …4 - 2Newcastle UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat13/02/10FACReading2 - 2West Bromwich …View eventsMore info
Wed24/02/10FACWest Bromwich …2 - 3EReadingView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACReading1 - 0West Bromwich …

The last match, a 1-0 loss , ties in with this time of year, and current defensive WBA characteristics.
Only 1 defeat in 15 for Cardiff may confirm my initial knee jerk reaction.

Sat03/01/09FACCardiff City2 - 0ReadingView eventsMore info
Sun25/01/09FACCardiff City0 - 0ArsenalMore info
Mon16/02/09FACArsenal4 - 0Cardiff CityView eventsMore info
Tue12/01/10FACBristol City1 - 1Cardiff CityView eventsMore info
Tue19/01/10FACCardiff City1 - 0Bristol CityView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACCardiff City4 - 2Leicester CityView eventsMore info
Sat13/02/10FACChelsea4 - 1Cardiff CityView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACStoke City1 - 1Cardiff CityView eventsMore info
Tue18/01/11FACCardiff City0 - 2EStoke City

Not the greatest FA Cup record. Last 3 wins have come at home. 1-1 defeat by Stoke this time last year seems to fit eerily well with today's opponents.
What chance a tight affair today with 1-1 a good starting point? Team news something I cannot factor in at time of writing.

330pm - AS Marck v Nice - 1.28 away - looks a massive price for this mismatch.
5pm - Deportivo v Xerez - 1.54 home
530pm - Bristol Rovers v Aston Villa - 1.52 away - Big 'Eck, or whatever his nickname, loves a Cup run, as he showed with Brum. . 4-3-5-2- conceded by Bristol Rovers in the league last 4 matches in League 2.

Sat26/01/08FACBarnet0 - 1Bristol RoversMore info
Sat16/02/08FACBristol Rovers1 - 0SouthamptonMore info
Sun09/03/08FACBristol Rovers1 - 5West Bromwich …More info
Sat08/11/08FACAFC Bournemouth1 - 0Bristol RoversView eventsMore info
Fri06/11/09FACBristol Rovers2 - 3SouthamptonView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACDarlington2 - 1Bristol RoversView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACBristol Rovers3 - 1Corby TownView eventsMore info
Sun04/12/11FACAFC Totton1 - 6Bristol Rovers

No draw in recent FA Cup campaign for Rovers. And a rather ominous 1-5 home defeat to West Brom in 2008 - a gauge to today?
Last 2 Premiership wins came away for Villa. Unbeaten in last 4 away in the league.

Wed04/02/09FACAston Villa3 - 1Doncaster RoversView eventsMore info
Sun15/02/09FACEverton3 - 1Aston VillaView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACAston Villa3 - 1Blackburn RoversView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACAston Villa3 - 2Brighton & Hov…View eventsMore info
Sun14/02/10FACCrystal Palace2 - 2Aston VillaView eventsMore info
Wed24/02/10FACAston Villa3 - 1Crystal PalaceView eventsMore info
Sun07/03/10FACReading2 - 4Aston VillaView eventsMore info
Sat10/04/10FACAston Villa0 - 3ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACSheffield United1 - 3Aston VillaView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACAston Villa3 - 1Blackburn RoversView eventsMore info
Wed02/03/11FACManchester City3 - 0Aston Villa

We keep seeing these teams, whose FA Cups are characterised by goal filled matches.
Again, team news a prerequisite for Villa.
7pm - Real Madrid v Granada - 1.08 home
HEAD TO HEADS
no head to heads can sometimes bring about a shock not in keeping with the odds.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 13th

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Real Madrid

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWL - sole loss was against Barcelona. 7-4-4-4-6-3 scored in other home wins. Scored 4 against 10th, 11th and 12th and playing 13th today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWWWLW - superb form and sole defeat v guess who!

GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs at home. Average 4.14 scored at home. 11 of last 12 matches overs. Only failed to score in 2 consecutive away matches ( 3rd and 4th of season). Only 1 clean sheet in last 6 matches. 

STREAKS - No draw in 12, and have scored in last 12.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - granada

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLWWL - no draw away couples with Real no draw in 12 .Wins against 6th and 9th. A 1-0 loss v 3rd placed Valencia a barometer to what can be achieved this evening? Or are Barca and Real a step ahead of 3rd place. All defeats were to nil

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLLWDWWDLW - good recent form, last 2 defeats were 0-1 v Barcelona at home and Getafe away. Interesting that they should keep the mighty Barca quiet, albeit with home advantage.

GOAL TRENDS - 29% overs away from home in stark contrast to Real Madrid.Only 4 matches all season over 2.5 goals. 2 of those came in last 3 matches, albeit at home. An inability to score in 7 of the first 9 matches of the season ended with Granada scoring in 5 of the most recent 7 matches. Average 0.43 scored away 

STREAKS - 7 without a draw away. HAve conceded in last 3 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - if you were a value seeker and wanted the potential of great upside for minimal risk, then you would hope for Granada to replicate their recent 1-0 loss to barcelona at home. You would also want to see Real Madrid replicate the kind of matches they have had in the past against apparent strugglers, where a 0-0 back at the start of the match paid off handsomely. A lay of Real Madrid is unlikely to produce much movement unless Granada score a goal, and in their away defeats they have not been scoring. 
Oh, dream land! Likely though, based on form , to be a minimum of 4 scored by real Madrid and a likely win to nil, given Granada's away losses have all been to nil.

745pm - Inter v Parma - 1.48 home
HEAD TO HEADS
16.04.2011D1Parma FC2-0Inter Milan
28.11.2010D1Inter Milan5-2Parma FC
10.02.2010D1Parma FC1-1Inter Milan

Inter at home a little more commanding in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 13th. A great recovery from an Inter side near the bottom of the league a couple of months ago.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Inter

RECENT HOME FORM - DLWLWLWW - only one draw at home was a 0-0 first match at home. Losses at home have come against 2nd, 3rd and 6th suggesting an obvious chance against other than top 6.Against 7th, 12th and 14th , Inter have not conceded and they are playing 13th today

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWLWWWW - 3 of 5 wins were 1-0 so Inter doing enough. Last 2 defeats against 2nd and 3rd suggest Inter are back on track. The early season defeats a mixture of poor confidence and poor manager.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs all season so we take cues from the opposition.Only 1 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals thanks largely to those 1-0 wins and clean sheets. 4 clean sheets in last 6 matches. Have failed to score in only 3 matches. 

STREAKS - 7 at home without a draw. 4 match winning streak overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Parma

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLLLD - have lost away to 1st, 2nd and 4th , 14th and 18th away. May be vulnerable against 5th. 1st and 2nd both 4-1 defeats.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLWLDDDD - last 2 draws 3-3 and if that happens today, I'll walk down my local street in my girlfriend's sunday best. 4 match draw sequence - will it end today. 2 0-0 and 2 3-3 draws. 

GOAL TRENDS - 71% overs away from home. Average 2.14 conceded in away matches. 4-4-3-2- 1 conceded in away defeats.,

STREAKS - 4 away without a win, 5 overall. 4 match draw sequence.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - will this 4 match draw sequence end today? Inter are priced to end it. Take our cues from away goal trends and side with overs, as Inter are 50/50 overs/unders? But it is tricky as Inter recently had had a raft of 1-0 wins. 
Lay the draw a goer? Tough to find a speculative/value trade here.

745pm - Red Star FC 93 v Marseille - 1.43 away - Division 3 v top flight and a team in great unbeaten league form. 1.43 is suspiciously high with this very basic research as evidence.
745pm - US Chantilly v Lille - 1.17 away - Top flight must be able to translate this into 3/4+ goals

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