SATURDAY - I'm afraid I am very non committal with the FA Cup matches today. Premiership sides meeting means they are difficult to decipher. As I write www.soccerstats.com is down again but I got plenty of work done last night which I will post along with FormLab game notes.
12pm - QPR v Chelsea - 1.66 away - FA Cup - so no traditional research required. The added twist of Sparky in the Cup could lift QPR. Chelsea are minus Drogba and Kalou at the African Nations. So difficult to get an angle into this match therefore. So go with your gut instinct.
1245pm - Liverpool v Man Utd - 2.72 home - FA Cup - another of those one offs which will simply go with the best team on the day. Liverpool after the Lord Mayor's show after reaching the Carling Cup Final might leave them vulnerable.
230pm - B Munich v Wolfsburg - 1.22 home - Bundesliga
HEAD TO HEADS
| 13.08.2011 | D1 | VfL Wolfsburg | 0-1 | Bayern München | |
| 15.01.2011 | D1 | VfL Wolfsburg | 1-1 | Bayern München | |
| 20.08.2010 | D1 | Bayern München | 2-1 | VfL Wolfsburg | |
| 06.02.2010 | D1 | VfL Wolfsburg | 1-3 | Bayern München | |
| 29.08.2009 | D1 | Bayern München | 3-0 | VfL Wolfsburg | |
| 04.04.2009 | D1 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5-1 | Bayern München |
At home, Bayern have managed 2 goals minimum but have been kept relatively quiet away to Wolf last 2 matches.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 9th. A win puts the pressure back on Dortmund for FC Hollywood.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bayern Munich
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWLWW - no draw at home for Bayern. Interestingly only 2 defeats at home were 0-1 defeats against 2nd and 4th. Outside of these matches, Bayern have scored 3 minimum and only conceded 1 goal ( that is in 7 matches).
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWLWWLLWWWL - 3 of last 4 defeats have come away from home 4th and 15th, these were goal laden.
GOAL TRENDS - 78% over 2.5 goals at home. only 5 matches this season under 2.5 goals. Where, early season, Bayern did not concede, of late 8 of the last 10 matches have seen Bayern concede. This, I suppose, could help a goals trade. Bayern have failed to score in only 3 matches this season.
STREAKS - 9 at home without a draw, 10 overall. Bayern have scored in last 5 matches.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Wolfsburg
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLLLDLLL - strikingly poor away form sees defeats against 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th, interestingly these scorelines are either 3-1, 4-1 or 5-1.Win came against 11th and draw against 14th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWDLLWLDLWW - last 2 wins were at home, 1-0 and against 10th and 11th. Despite extremely poor record away to top 8, are these 2 home 1-0's a sign of a change of tack by Wolfsburg?Positive results of late came from home. Only lost 0-1 when Bayern visited this season.
GOAL TRENDS - 78% overs away from home conceding an average 2.78 away. Have failed to score in only 3 this season and kept clean sheets in only 4 matches . Do Wolfsburg look likely to score?
STREAKS - 8 away without a win. Have conceded in last 8 away .
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the first thing to note is Wolfsburg's appalling performance away to top 8, losing either 3-1, 4-1 or 5-1. Bayern are known for their goals and could, if on form, obviously replicate this. Wolfsburg have only failed to score in 3 matches this season as have Bayern. 78% over 2.5 goals for both sides is extremely strong. If we look at Bayern's performances outside the top 4, they have scored 3+ minimum and kept a clean sheet. It does point to over 4.5 goals for the ultra speculative, but a note of caution , 2 1-1 draws last 2 matches at Wolfs and Wolfs winning 1-0 at home might be a sign that Wolfs are getting a defensive head up.
Scorelines for the speculative could start at 3-1, and move up to 5-1, 6-1 . We assume Wolfsburg will score .
FORMLAB
• HT/FT: Bayern have had W/W double results in 8/11 home matches against top-half teams while Wolfsburg have had L/L double results in 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. Wolfsburg have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.Top 3 indicators
1) - Home win by 2+ v middle third
2) - home win/win v middle third
3) - over 2.5 match goals v middle third
230pm - Dortmund v Hoffenheim - 1.37 home - Bundesliga
HEAD TO HEADS
| 13.08.2011 | D1 | Hoffenheim | 1-0 | Borussia Dortmund | |
| 12.03.2011 | D1 | Hoffenheim | 1-0 | Borussia Dortmund | |
| 24.10.2010 | D1 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | |
| 18.04.2010 | D1 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | |
| 28.11.2009 | D1 | Hoffenheim | 1-2 | Borussia Dortmund | |
| 28.02.2009 | D1 | Borussia Dortmund | 0-0 | Hoffenheim |
Ahh, Hoffenheim - coupon busters last year in the Bundesliga when Dortmund were similarly priced. I have spoken previously about bogey sides, and Hoff look exactly like a bogey side for Dortmund. This immediately calls into question the 1.37 quote. But, put into context, Dortmund must win if we assume Bayern will win, in order to stay 1st in the league.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 8th.2nd only on goal difference.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dortmund
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWWWWD - Have only played one of top 8, a 2-0 win v 3rd so a little difficult to gauge Dortmund at home v top 8. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches against top 12. Recent 1-1 draw v 16th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWWWDDWW - all draws were 1-1 so if you feel that the Hoff of head to heads will turn up, then 1-1 is a good saver.Have lost 1-0 to Hoff this season already .
GOAL TRENDS - 63% over 2.5 goals , have scored in all home matches. 3 of last 8 matches only over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in 2 matches this season. Have conceded no more than 1 goal in last 12 matches. Dortmund have conceded only 4 in the first half this season, scoring 18
STREAKS - no defeat in 5 at home and 12 overall. Have scored in last 14 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Hoffenheim
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLLLLLW - have lost away to 3rd, 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th, 14th. 4 of the scorelines were 2-0, 1 3-1 and 1 2-1. Not quite as per the 1-0's and 1-1's of head to heads.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLWLDLDLWDD - last 2 wins, 1-0 at home to 4th and 0-2 away to 12th. Last 3 home draws 1-1 and a 0-0. No draws away for Hoffenheim.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. A very strong recent trend this season for the Hoff. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3. Hoffenheim have been solid defensively until conceding 9 in the last half hour of matches.
STREAKS - 9 away without a draw , 3 away without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - if the head to heads continues, this is a 1-1 or 1-0 to Hoff. BUT will recent form supercede head to heads. Hoff have lost away to teams between 3rd-14th 2-0, 3-1, or 2-1. And Dortmund's wins have seen them score 2+.
So, if you think head to heads will be replicated, Dortmund can be layed at 1.37.
Recent form would suggest Dortmund score 2 and possibly concede.
FORM LAB• Asian handicap: B. Dortmund have won by two or more goals in 10/12 home matches while Hoffenheim have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to top-six teams. B. Dortmund have won 10/12 home matches.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home win by 2+ v All
2) - Equal goals in both halves v all
3) - Home win v all
230pm - W Bremen v Leverkusen - 2.34 home - Bundesliga
HEAD TO HEADS
| 14.08.2011 | D1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | |
| 27.02.2011 | D1 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
| 03.10.2010 | D1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | |
| 21.02.2010 | D1 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
| 20.09.2009 | D1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0-0 | Werder Bremen | |
| 30.05.2009 | Cup | Bayer Leverkusen | 0-1 | Werder Bremen |
Werder = over 2.5 goals but that ended last head to head.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 6th may explain the odds. Only 1 point between them, only 1 goal between them.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Werder Bremen.
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLWWW - only loss at home was against Dortmund 0-2. Wins have all come against 9th and lower, scoring 2 minimum.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDWWLWLWLD - inconsistent of late but winning in turn, coinciding with the home matches
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs at home. Average 2.5 goals at home. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals typically Werder. Werder though, have failed to score in last 2in the league. Werder have lost 6 out of 6 home and away against top 7 home and away.
STREAKS - 8 at home without a draw. 3 match home winning streak.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Leverkusen
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLDWWDD - only 2 away losses 3-0 against top and 2-0 against 15th. Have only played 2 matches away against top 6 sides, a 3-0 loss to Bayern and 2-2 draw with Mgladbach .Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLWDWDWDLW - inconsistent in the sense that they cannot string together a solid run . 3 of last 4 losses have been at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 3 clean sheets in last 6 matches but conceded 3-3-2 in the other matches. Have failed to score in 2 of last 3.
STREAKS - 5 away without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Werder are so often overs candidates. Head to heads, bar most recent confirmed this, as has Werder's recent record of 6 over 2.5 goals matches in last 8 matches but Leverkusen have not been playing ball.
A feeling that Werder, too , really are vulnerable against top 7, they have lost 6 matches home and away out of 6 against the top 7, but it must be said that they have only played a single home match and 5 of those defeats came away from home.Leverkusen are a difficult team for me to read I'm afraid. They have loss, draw, draw against top 8, and have conceded 3 and 2 against top 4 teams away. Chance for Werder to get back to goal scoring ways ? Werder have beaten all teams at home 9th and lower and a real question mark -we simply down't know- about how they will perform against top 8 sides.
A toughie to call and the hope there are more readable matches elsewhere. If we stick to the kind of quality we saw in the Standard v Mons match on Thursday , then we will have a great strike rate.There is no need for involvement in every match. Some are just " yuk".
FORM LABA feeling that Werder, too , really are vulnerable against top 7, they have lost 6 matches home and away out of 6 against the top 7, but it must be said that they have only played a single home match and 5 of those defeats came away from home.Leverkusen are a difficult team for me to read I'm afraid. They have loss, draw, draw against top 8, and have conceded 3 and 2 against top 4 teams away. Chance for Werder to get back to goal scoring ways ? Werder have beaten all teams at home 9th and lower and a real question mark -we simply down't know- about how they will perform against top 8 sides.
A toughie to call and the hope there are more readable matches elsewhere. If we stick to the kind of quality we saw in the Standard v Mons match on Thursday , then we will have a great strike rate.There is no need for involvement in every match. Some are just " yuk".
• +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Leverkusen away matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/9 Leverkusen such matches. W. Bremen have won 8/10 home matches.
Form Lab likes over 2.5 goals here and I suppose they could be right given Werder's history
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1st) - HT Home score 0-1 v Top Half
2) - Home Draw v Top 6
3) - Home concede first v all
3pm - Bolton v Swansea - 2.54 home - FA Cup - the odds for the favourite at 2.54 tells you this is another imponderable. Bolton are getting better in the premiership, Swansea are getting a reputation for solidity in defence, and if your main striker is , ahem, Kevin Davies, then we might get a run from 0-0? Another tough match.
3pm - Rangers v Hibernian - 1.26 home - Premier League
HEAD TO HEADS
| 10.12.2011 | PR | Hibernian FC | 0-2 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 01.10.2011 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 1-0 | Hibernian FC | |
| 26.01.2011 | PR | Hibernian FC | 0-2 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 10.11.2010 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 0-3 | Hibernian FC | |
| 22.08.2010 | PR | Hibernian FC | 0-3 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 25.04.2010 | PR | Hibernian FC | 0-1 | Glasgow R |
Rangers away are good. Rangers at home are shaky, 0-3 loss and 1-0 win in recent head to heads. 3 clean sheets in last 3 matches in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 11th ( 2nd top v 2nd bottom). A must win for Rangers who are rather cocking up their title hopes. 4 points behind Celtic and will have played a game more still after this match.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 11th ( 2nd top v 2nd bottom). A must win for Rangers who are rather cocking up their title hopes. 4 points behind Celtic and will have played a game more still after this match.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Rangers
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWDWDWWWD - solid at home. Errant draws against 4th, 5th, 8th and 9th. 3 of those draws were 1-1 suggesting over 2.5 goals as a trade may be covered , dependent as it is on timing of the 2nd goal.Have played Hibs at home this season, winning only 1-0 with a 68th minute goal in October 2011.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWWLLWWD - defeats, all away, against 1st, 7th and 9th. All draws have come at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 42% overs at home and overall this season suggest Rangers, under Ally McCoist are not as strong as they have been previously under more established management. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches against bottom 2 home and away.
STREAKS - No defeat in 12 at home. Have scored and conceded in last 2 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Hibs
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDLWDLLLW - significantly, the only wins for Hibs away have been against bottom 4 sides . This season a 0-0 draw with Celtic and 1-0 loss v Rangers perhaps hint at the Hibs shape when playing the Old Firm away. Defeats against 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th conceded 2-3-3-4 goals. So it does seem that Hibs set up completely differently exclusively against the Old Firm.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLDLLLLDLWL - last 3 wins amazingly 3-2 scorelines but history shows an inability to score 3 against Old Firm.
GOAL TRENDS - 55% overs away from home. Again isolating the Old Firm, it's an impressive 0-0 and 1-0 loss. 4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Hibs have only kept a clean sheet 3 times this season.
STREAKS -4 away without a draw. Have scored in last 5 overall and conceded in last 10 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I always feel that Old Firm performance should be taken in isolation. If so, it points to a Hibs side who may have their measure defensively. 0-0 and 1-0 away this season. Will this be repeated. Quite clearly Hibs are vulnerable if they conceded 2-3-3-4 away to 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th.
Rangers are unbeaten at home, unlikely to lose, but it is difficult determining which Rangers will turn up.
Best odds will be for the 0-0 and 1-0 and under 2.5 goals in the hope Hibs are thorns in the side of the Old Firm yet again. Another tough match as it is equally conceivable Rangers could give Hibs a hammering as the 4th to 7th have done away.
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Rangers have won 11/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hibernian have lost 10/14 away matches against Big Two teams. Rangers have scored first in 11/12 home matches against bottom-six teams.TOP 3 INDICATORS
1st) - Home Draw/win v Bottom 6
2nd ) - Home win by 2 v All
3rd) - Home win by 2 + v bottom half
3pm - Sheff Utd v Birmingham - 2.74 home -FA Cup - more imponderable cup matches. 2.74 tells its own story. Blades in superb form at home this season and a feeling Brum might want to focus on the Premiership.
3pm - West Brom v Norwich - 2.04 home - FA Cup - this has " low scoring" written all over it does it not? Another premiership clash in the Cup.
515pm - Brighton v Newcastle - 2.1 away - FA Cup - this is a surprise - over evens for a Premiership side against lower league opponents represents value if we see the full side out. The only match so far with teams from different leagues. And I like matches with teams from different leagues.
530pm - Olympiakos v Ergotelis - 1.18 home - Super League
HEAD TO HEADS
| 24.09.2011 | D1 | Ergotelis Creta | 2-3 | Olympiakos Pireus | |
| 06.03.2011 | D1 | Olympiakos Pireus | 3-0 | Ergotelis Creta | |
| 24.11.2010 | D1 | Ergotelis Creta | 0-2 | Olympiakos Pireus | |
| 20.02.2010 | D1 | Ergotelis Creta | 1-1 | Olympiakos Pireus | |
| 24.10.2009 | D1 | Olympiakos Pireus | 2-1 | Ergotelis Creta | |
| 06.09.2009 | CF | Ergotelis Creta | 5-0 | Olympiakos Pireus |
Oly have scored 2-3-3- in last 3 head to heads, and that fits in with the 1.18 quote tonight. -
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 9th.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 9th.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Oly
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDDWWWWW - draws against 1st and 7th, 1-1 and 2-2. Have scored 2 or more in 6 of the 7 wins this season at home. Have not played 8th, 9th, 10th ,11th so a slight questionmark.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWWWWWDWL - losses have both been away from home, 1-0 and 2-0, most recently last match played.
GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs throughout the season.Have scored in all home matches this season.
STREAKS - 5 match home winning streak. No defeat in 9 at home. Have scored in last 9 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ergotelis
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLLWL - all bar one defeat away to top 7 includes an ominous 4-0 away loss to Olympiakos. 3 of the 5 away defeats to top 7 were 1-0 which could hint at a typically defensive display if Ergotelis play to their optimum. Losing 2-3 already at home to Oly though signals that Ergo will have to be lucky to keep a clean sheet or keep Oly down to 1 goal.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWDLWLWWLWLD - 8 of last 9 matches saw no draw.
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs throughout the season. Have scored in last 6.Have kept a clean sheet in only 1 match away this season and failed to score in 4 of 5 away to top 7.
STREAKS - 7 away without a draw. Have scored in last 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Ergotelis should lose as they have done against top 7 away this season. They could conceivably lose to nil, although we must note a 2-3 scoreline in the same match at home. It could be 1-0 or Olympiakos could replicate Pana's 4 goals against today's opponents. Oly have a tendency to score 2 or more in wins at home, so we can hope at least for that. 1.18 signals the potential to score 3 minimum for Oly today. The goal trends are right in the middle so it could swing either way. 1-0, 3-0, 4-0 are potentials for the speculative.
FORM LAB• HT/FT: Olympiakos have had W/W double results in 9/12 home matches against bottom-half teams while Ergotelis have had L/L double results in 10/14 away matches against Big Three teams. Olympiakos have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-half teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home win v bottom half
2) - Home win by 2+ v middle third
3) - Home win by 2+ v bottom half
545pm - Heerenveen v Utrecht - 1.56 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 22.10.2011 | D1 | FC Utrecht | 1-4 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 15.04.2011 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 3-0 | FC Utrecht | |
| 11.01.2011 | CF | SC Heerenveen | 2-1 | FC Utrecht | |
| 05.12.2010 | D1 | FC Utrecht | 2-1 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 06.02.2010 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 2-0 | FC Utrecht | |
| 08.11.2009 | D1 | FC Utrecht | 2-3 | SC Heerenveen |
That's what we want to see in Holland, goals goals goals , all bar one match overs in head to heads. A hope this will continue today.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 14th. 1.56 signals a tight match and possible 1 goal win for Heerenveen
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 14th. 1.56 signals a tight match and possible 1 goal win for Heerenveen
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team -Heerenveen
RECENT HOME FORM - DLWDDWDWL - only defeats this season have come against 2nd and 3rd , both 1-5. And a whole raft of draws against 12th, 13th, 15th and 17th , and playing 14th today. ( all score draws, 3 of them 1-1 and the other 2-2)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDDWWWDDWWLW - only 1 loss recently was one of those 1-5's against PSV.Heerenveen have scored 4-4-2-1-2-5-5-1-2 in recent matches. Some great attacking performances. Have already beaten Utrecht 1-4 away this season so may very well continue with the scoreline today ( but the 1.56 does not relay that).
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home .Have scored in all matches this season. 7 of 9 last matches over 2.5 goals. The exceptions were 2 goal games but the 2nd goals came around the 75th minute marker so questionable whether we could have had a successful over 2.5 goals trade.
STREAKS - have scored in last 9 at home and last 18 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Utrecht
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWLLLDLL - solitary win away was against bottom side. Defeats against 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th, 11th, 13th. Vulnerable therefore to 5th?3 defeats were 1-0's, and one 2-0 against league leaders suggest Utrecht might not get thrashed and to be fair 1.56 reflects that ( over 1/2 usually points to a home team win but after a struggle)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLLWDLLDLD - last 2 wins at home were 3-0 v Waalwijk and 6-4 v Ajax.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. 67% overs overall suggests 2 of every 3 matches over 2.5 goals. General trend to overs overall this season. Have only kept 2 clean sheets this season. All wins by Utrecht goal laden, featuring 4-5-3-10 goals.
STREAKS - 6 away without a win, and 6 overall without a win. Have conceded in last 10 overall and last 8 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Heerenveen have scored 2-3-4 in last 3 head to heads suggesting they may have the measure of Utrecht with home advantage.What is worrying though are the draws against 13th-17th inclusive, all score draws and 3 of them 1-1.
Heerenveen have scored 4-4-2-1-2-5-5-1-2 in recent matches which contrasts somewhat with those draws. Heerenveen have already beaten Utrecht 1-4 this season so are capable of a goal laden match, but 1.56 does not reflect that. 67% overs at home against 67% overs overall. Over 2.5 goals has a chance of success.
I think This could be a 2-1 scoreline for Heerenveen with the potential to score a lot more. Over 2.5 goals has a distinct chance of success ( although Utrecht away is only 44% overs)
FORM LABHeerenveen have scored 4-4-2-1-2-5-5-1-2 in recent matches which contrasts somewhat with those draws. Heerenveen have already beaten Utrecht 1-4 this season so are capable of a goal laden match, but 1.56 does not reflect that. 67% overs at home against 67% overs overall. Over 2.5 goals has a chance of success.
I think This could be a 2-1 scoreline for Heerenveen with the potential to score a lot more. Over 2.5 goals has a distinct chance of success ( although Utrecht away is only 44% overs)
• Match outcome: Heerenveen have won 10/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while Utrecht have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams. Utrecht have drawn the first half in 9/12 away matches against top-six teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home draw/win v Bottom 6
2) - home under 2.5 match goals v bottom half
3) - home clean sheet v bottom half
6pm - Lyon v Dijon - 1.41 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 10.09.2011 | D1 | Dijon FCO | 1-2 | Lyon | |
| 08.07.2006 | CF | Dijon FCO | 0-2 | Lyon |
Only 1 head to head of relevance was a tight 1-2 away win for Lyon.
LEAGUE POSITION -4th v 13th.A win takes Lyon provisionally 3rd.
LEAGUE POSITION -4th v 13th.A win takes Lyon provisionally 3rd.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Lyon
RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWWLWW - draw against bottom side and sole loss v Rennes 1-2.All wins have seen either 2 or 3 scored. Suggests that if Dijon keep Lyon to a single goal, then they have a chance to get something from this match. Lyon have conceded at home against 9th, 12th, 17th and 20th.And Lyon did conceded to Dijon in head to head in September 2011.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWLWLLWWWWLL - no draw in 17 -6 defeats in last 7 were away defeats. Lost 1-0 away in last 2 matches. All bar one defeat this season came away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home. Lyon have scored in all home matches. 3 of last 4 matches under 2.5 goals but they were all away from home. Lyon have only failed to score in 4 matches this season an they were all away matches.
STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak. 8 at home without a draw, 17 overall. Have scored in last 9 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - DIJON
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLDLLLWLD - have lost away to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th , 14th and 15th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDLLLLWWDLLDW - fairly straightforward. Dijon have lost home and away all 8 matches against top 8.They have won their 5 matches home and away against 9th, 10th, 11th , 12th. This suggests that Lyon, a top 4 side, should win. 3 of the scorelines away to top 8 were 2-0.
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs overall this season.Conceded an average 2.2 away per match this season. Have conceded 24 goals in the 2nd half of matches this season.
STREAKS - have conceded in the last 8 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - you get the feeling this could be 2-0 or 2-1 starters . This also covers unders and overs. No draw in 17 for Lyon points more to a home win than an away win. Lyon have only failed to score in 4 matches this season so if this is 0-0 for a while, and you are a reactive trader, than back Lyon or goals at better in play odds.
FORM LAB• 1st goal: Lyon have scored first in 14/16 home matches while Dijon have lost 4/5 away matches against top-six teams. Lyon have won 10/13 home matches.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home win by 2+ v Bottom half
2) - home win by 2+ v all
3) - home win by 2+ v middle third
645pm - Heracles v Excelsior - 1.31 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 22.10.2011 | D1 | SBV Excelsior | 0-2 | Heracles Almelo | |
| 12.03.2011 | D1 | Heracles Almelo | 4-1 | SBV Excelsior | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | SBV Excelsior | 2-1 | Heracles Almelo | |
| 22.01.2008 | D1 | Heracles Almelo | 2-0 | SBV Excelsior |
Heracles have scored 6 in last 2 head to heads .
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 18th of 18 hence the market's relative confidence behind the home side.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 18th of 18 hence the market's relative confidence behind the home side.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Heracles
RECENT HOME FORM - WDLWWLDWL - no wins in 5 matches at home against top 7, but wins against 8th, 11th were 2-1 and importantly, 7-0 and 2-0 wins at home against 16th and 17th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLLDLWLLL - 4 of the 6 defeats came away from home lately. 2 of most recent losses were away.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs at home.Heracles have failed to score in only 3 this season, and 2 of those were in last 3 matches. Heracles have conceded 6 in the first half and 21 in the 2nd half of matches this season. That's quite something! But against bottom 3, they are yet to concede. Most goal scoring action occurs in the last 15 minutes of each half.
STREAKS - no draw in 5 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Excelsior
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDLDLL - no surprise we see no wins away from bottom side. Surprising draw 2-2 v Twente and 0-0 to bottom
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWDDLDLLW - only 2 wins at home against 11th and 15th. 11 defeats though, 3 draws and 1 win against top 14 sides home and away.
GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs away from home reliant on prompting therefore from opponents. Have scored 6 in first half , conceding 18, and scored 6 2nd half, conceding 23 so note that most of the goal action is likely to occur 2nd half. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals includes a 0-0 home draw v AZ in there. Excelsior have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
STREAKS - 8 away without a win. 3 overall without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Heracles , v bottom sides, win to nil, if history is anything to go by. Tough to nail an exact scoreline. The 2nd half may see most goal action so an involvement at halftime if 0-0 on over 2.5 goals will represent value.
FORM LAB• Match outcome: H Almelo have won 11/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Excelsior have lost 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Excelsior have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home 2nd half win v Bottom 6
2) - Most match goals 2nd half v bottom 6 ( Great minds think alike -that is exactly what I concluded)
3) - home win by 2+ v Bottom 6
7pm - Real Madrid v Zaragoza - 1.09 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 28.08.2011 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 0-6 | Real Madrid | |
| 30.04.2011 | D1 | Real Madrid | 2-3 | Real Zaragoza | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 1-3 | Real Madrid | |
| 24.04.2010 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 1-2 | Real Madrid | |
| 19.12.2009 | D1 | Real Madrid | 6-0 | Real Zaragoza | |
| 11.05.2008 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 2-2 | Real Madrid |
the 6-0 last time out is most certainly in keeping with a 1.09 quite.
LEAGUE POSITION - top v bottom and Zaragoza having a nightmare. After going out in the Copa Del Rey , Real will want to gain revenge in the league and keep the 5 point gap with a win .
LEAGUE POSITION - top v bottom and Zaragoza having a nightmare. After going out in the Copa Del Rey , Real will want to gain revenge in the league and keep the 5 point gap with a win .
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Real Madrid
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWLWW - loss was against those who shall not be named!Wins included Real scoring 3,4,5,6,7 goals. So take your pick today. Interestingly Real have only kept 1 clean sheet at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWWWWWLWWWW - don't mention that loss again ( clears throat) -only 1 draw this season . Real have scored 6-4-4-4-3-1-7-3-4-3-1-6-5-2-4 in recent matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 100% overs at home. Of course, scored in all home matches . 84% overs overall this season. 14 of last 15 matches over 2.5 goals. Failed to score in only 2 this season.
STREAKS - 9 at home without a draw, have scored and conceded at home in last 5. No draw in 15 overall and have scored in last 15 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Zaragoza
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDLLLLLL - defeats against top 10 include concession of 4-3-2-3- goals. Failed to score in 3 away matches against top 6.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLLLLLLDD - says it all really. A hint of late, though, that Zaragoza are making a real defensive effort. Recent defeats 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1 draw, 0-0. That noted, rather like the SPL, the results v the top 2 should be taken in isolation and they are 6-0 home to Real and 4-0 away at Barca this season.
GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs away from home. 6 of the last 7 matches have been under 2.5 goals, really coinciding with the ultra strong defensive displays, albeit in defeat. Zaragoza have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
STREAKS - 10 away without a win, 12 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS-this goes one of 2 ways. An all out defensive display from the away side results in an unlucky 1-0, 2-0 win for Real Madrid. Or this resorts to what Zaragoza have suffered against the big 2 this season already, 4-0, 5-0 , 6-0 defeat. Zaragoza are unlikely to score if the form is anything to go by. Value seekers can hope for over 5.5 goals for trading. And if 0-0 for a concerted period get on after 20 minutes
FORM LAB• HT/FT: Real Madrid have had W/W double results in 13/15 home matches against bottom-six teams while Real Zaragoza have had L/L double results in 4/5 away matches against Big Two teams. Real Madrid have won 18/20 home matches against bottom-six teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home win/win v bottom 6
2) - home score last v all
3) - home ht win v bottom 6
745pm - Juventus v Udinese - 1.67 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 21.12.2011 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 0-0 | Juventus FC | |
| 30.01.2011 | D1 | Juventus FC | 1-2 | Udinese Calcio | |
| 19.09.2010 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 0-4 | Juventus FC | |
| 03.04.2010 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 3-0 | Juventus FC | |
| 22.11.2009 | D1 | Juventus FC | 1-0 | Udinese Calcio | |
| 28.01.2009 | D1 | Udinese Calcio | 2-1 | Juventus FC |
Udinese thorns in Juve's side in 2011.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 3rd. Likely to be a tight match. Udinese could go equal top on points with a win so plenty of incentive. The incentive for Juventus is to get some distance in a tight top of the league tussle.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 3rd. Likely to be a tight match. Udinese could go equal top on points with a win so plenty of incentive. The incentive for Juventus is to get some distance in a tight top of the league tussle.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Juventus
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWWWWD - draws have come against 10th, 11th and 16th All score draws. Wins against 2nd, 8th, 18th and 20th came with 2+ goals and without conceding. Only 2 home matches against top 8, were those 2-0 and 3-0 wins.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWDWDWDW - 3 of last 4 draws were away draws.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% of matches at home over 2.5 goals. Juve have scored in all home matches so worse case scenario should be a score draw. Average 2.11 goals scored at home this season. Last 7 matches though under 2.5 goals -7 of last 10 matches saw Juve keep a clean sheet.
STREAKS - 9 at home without defeat, 19 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Udinese
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDDLLWDL - only 2 wins 0-1 away to Inter and 0-2 away to Lecce. Defeats have come against 7th, 10th and 12th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLWWWDDWLW - last 3 defeats all away to 7th , 10th and 12th.
GOAL TRENDS - 22% over 2.5 goals away from home. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in only 5 this season.
STREAKS - have scored and conceded in last 3 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - first thing to note is the fact this is a match which will hold great significance for both sides. This could be tight with so much at stake. IF Juve win, it could be 2-0, and so overs is difficult to predict . Recent trends have seen Juve on unders and Udinese ( with only 22% of away matches over 2.5 goals) on overs. Advantage Juve here. Under 2.5 goals a goer , and perhaps a 0-0 back to lay incase this 1st v 3rd clash gets cagey. If Juve are on form, 2-0 and 3-0 cover overs and unders.
FORM LAB• 1st half outcome: Juventus have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams as have Udinese in 7/11 away matches against Big Four teams. Udinese have lost 11/16 away matches against Big Four teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home draw/lose v top half
2) - most match goals 2nd half v all
3) - home 2nd half lose v all
745pm - Roda JC v AZ Alkmaar - 1.85 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 23.10.2011 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-0 | Roda Kerkrade | |
| 12.03.2011 | D1 | Roda Kerkrade | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-2 | Roda Kerkrade | |
| 13.02.2010 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Roda Kerkrade | |
| 21.11.2009 | D1 | Roda Kerkrade | 2-4 | AZ Alkmaar | |
| 04.02.2009 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-0 | Roda Kerkrade |
League leaders and odds which suggest favouratism but a toughie today.
LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 1st
LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 1st
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - RODA
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWLLWW - no draw at home.Defeats have come against 4th, 5th and 15th. Beat Twente 2-1.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWLLLWWWLWD - sole draw of the season came last match 3-3, with an 82nd minute saver. What chance another draw on the trot after so long without a draw.Overall a poor record against top of the league. In 7 matches against top 7 home and away Roda had 6 defeats and that 2-1 home win v Twente. Only 1 defeat in last 6 but against other than top 7 sides.
GOAL TRENDS - 89% overs at home and 83% overall. Overwhelming sequence of over 2.5 goals matches.Roda have only kept one clean sheet all season. Roda have conceded 12 goals in the first quarter hour of the 2nd half and 11 goals in the last 1/2 hour of the 2nd half. So if we see a heroic 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime, lay it! Roda are likely to concede.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home - no draw in 9 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - AZ Alkmaar
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWWDWLDL - losses have come against 3rd, 5th and 11th Interestingly 2 of those losses and 2 of those draws all came away in last 5 matches. Are AZ struggling for form away of late?Or have they coincidentally just met the top teams
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
8pm - Lille v St Etienne - 1.66 home
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE POSITION
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT HOME FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
830pm - Feirense v Benfica - 1.33 away
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE POSITION
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT HOME FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
9pm - Villarreal v Barcelona - 1.29 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 29.08.2011 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 5-0 | Villarreal CF | |
| 02.04.2011 | D1 | Villarreal CF | 0-1 | FC Barcelona | |
| 13.11.2010 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 3-1 | Villarreal CF | |
| 01.05.2010 | D1 | Villarreal CF | 1-4 | FC Barcelona | |
| 02.01.2010 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 1-1 | Villarreal CF | |
| 10.05.2009 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 3-3 | Villarreal CF |
4 wins in last 4 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 2nd and a must win for Barcelona now. Real have, on paper, an easy match .
LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 2nd and a must win for Barcelona now. Real have, on paper, an easy match .
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Villareal
RECENT HOME FORM - DWDLWWDDW - sole loss at home against 4th placed Levante 0-3. Draw 2-2 against 3rd placed Valencia were the only 2 matches at home against top 8.Wins have come against 12th and lower at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLLWDWLLDLDLW - last 3 wins were at home. Last 5 losses were away from home.
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
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