Monday 9 January 2012

9/1

Apologies for loss of internet yesterday which rather spoiled my research day.
6pm - Fenerbahce v Gaziantepspor - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
16.09.2011D1Gaziantepspor1-3Fenerbahçe SK
16.04.2011D1Fenerbahçe SK1-0Gaziantepspor
13.11.2010D1Gaziantepspor2-1Fenerbahçe SK
20.03.2010D1Fenerbahçe SK1-0Gaziantepspor
18.10.2009D1Gaziantepspor2-1Fenerbahçe SK
01.02.2009D1Fenerbahçe SK1-1Gaziantepspor

Look at the home matches for Fenerbahce - 1-1, 1-0, 1-0 -do Gaziantepspor 

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 14th - Fenerbahce are losing touch with revitalised Galatasary so this becomes a must win to stay within 4 points of Gala and hope the latter slip up at some stage in the title battle.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Fenerbahce

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWWWW - unbeaten at home, draws v 11th and 17th. Of slight concern is the 4 1-0 wins at home, 1-1 draw, and 0-0 draw amongst others , particularly in light of the scorelines in home head to heads for Fenerbahce. 5 of 8 clean sheets at home. 1-0 against 15th and 16th and 0-0 v 17th and playing 14th today

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWLWDWLWWDD - only 2 defeats away from home against 1st and 7th - in the last 3 matches fener have scored 1-0-1 and this again pervades my research so far.I don't think there is a question of Fener losing this match, the draw is there. They are unbeaten home and away v bottom 10 but there have been 2 1-1 and 2 0-0 draws

GOAL TRENDS - 25% over 2.5 goals at home. As if to emphasise the point!!33% overs overall this season .3 clean sheets in last 4.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak at home. 8 without defeat at home. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team  -Gazientepspor

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDWDLDD - it seems the best the away side can hope for today is a draw. 4 away draws this season have been 0-0 and further reinforces the apparent tight nature of head to heads, recent fenerbahce form at home - 3 of the away 0-0's did come against bottom 4 sides.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWLDDLWDLDDW - last 2 wins have come at home, and both 1-0's. Have anomolously beaten galatasary away 2-4. Drew 0-0 at home v 2nd and lost 0-1 to 4th and 5th at home. 

GOAL TRENDS  -25% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have kept 4 clean sheets in last 6 and failed to score in 3 of last 5.

STREAKS - 2 0-0's last 2 away matches. No defeat in 3 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the Gaz 2-4 anomolous win away v Galatasary not withstanding, this has under 2.5 goals written all over it , also 0-0 back, Fenerbahce 1-0 , 0-0, 1-1 scoreline. Note this is based solely on what the form is telling me. A 1 in 4 chance for over 2.5 goals based on the goal trends shows if we back unders we are most likely to be successful.


745pm - Arsenal v Leeds - 1.33 home - Thierry Henry likely to return this evening, along with Pat Jennings in goal. Henry is going to be playing with Cliff Bastin up front. Another FA Cup match and the Racing Post recounts a significant Leeds injury list including the likes of Billy Bremner and Eric Cantona.
There have been few surprises regarding Premiership sides and lower league opposition in the Cup. The likes of Wigan were obvious contenders for the banana skin away at Swindon. The big boys though, are doing fine and winning emphatically generally.
The Robin Van Persie effect has become prolonged now. For game after game I have recounted the fact that if he has not scored, Arsenal do not win.This goes back some 15 matches in all competitions . Now with Henry returning and Oxlade-Chamberlain likely to play, will this amazing stat continue in the FA Cup, or should the FA Cup be wholly separated from the Premiership?
Those superstitious fellow amongst you might want to lay Arsenal if VAn Persie does not start

Mon16/02/09FACArsenal4 - 0Cardiff CityView eventsMore info
Sun08/03/09FACArsenal3 - 0BurnleyView eventsMore info
Tue17/03/09FACArsenal2 - 1Hull CityView eventsMore info
Sat18/04/09FACArsenal1 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sun03/01/10FACWest Ham United1 - 2ArsenalView eventsMore info
Sun24/01/10FACStoke City3 - 1ArsenalView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACArsenal1 - 1Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Wed19/01/11FACLeeds United1 - 3ArsenalView eventsMore info
Sun30/01/11FACArsenal2 - 1Huddersfield TownView eventsMore info
Sun20/02/11FACLeyton Orient1 - 1ArsenalView eventsMore info
Wed02/03/11FACArsenal5 - 0Leyton OrientView eventsMore info
Sat12/03/11FACManchester United2 - 0Arsenal

Recent losses only to Premiership opposition in this competition.

Sat26/01/08FACArsenal3 - 0Newcastle UnitedMore info
Sat03/01/09FACArsenal3 - 1Plymouth ArgyleView eventsMore info
Mon16/02/09FACArsenal4 - 0Cardiff CityView eventsMore info
Sun08/03/09FACArsenal3 - 0BurnleyView eventsMore info
Tue17/03/09FACArsenal2 - 1Hull CityView eventsMore info
Sat18/04/09FACArsenal1 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACArsenal1 - 1Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Sun30/01/11FACArsenal2 - 1Huddersfield TownView eventsMore info
Wed02/03/11FACArsenal5 - 0Leyton Orient

At home, Arsenal have been generally strong and convincing. Interesting this time nearly to the day last year, Leeds played away at Arsenal and drew 1-1.That was a tight match with 2 2nd half goals, both penalties for either side.
Difficult to call with a different Arsenal side to the Premiership side, as well as Leeds injuries. If we take our cues from last year, expect a 0-0 for a long period.

Sat07/11/09FACOldham Athletic0 - 2Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Sun29/11/09FACKettering Town1 - 1Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Sun03/01/10FACManchester United0 - 1Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACTottenham Hotspur2 - 2Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat08/01/11FACArsenal1 - 1Leeds United

A very interesting set of 5 away in the FA Cup for Leeds, who are unbeaten against Man Utd, Spurs and Arsenal all away. Does this herald a speculative lay of Arsenal given the short initial odds and minimal downside, in the hope that.......
815pm - Beira-Mar v Braga - 1.92 away
HEAD TO HEADS
02.04.2011D1SC Beira-Mar1-2Sporting Braga
07.11.2010D1Sporting Braga2-3SC Beira-Mar
11.03.2007D1Sporting Braga0-0SC Beira-Mar

overs a good call last 2 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 4th - Benfica and Porto are storming clear. Braga in danger of being totally out of reach without 3 points today. 3 points and a win by 2 clear goals will put Braga equal 3rd with sporting.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Beira - Mar

RECENT HOME FORM - DLDLWL - losing alternately at present. Lost to 1st and 2nd 0-1 and 1-2 and drew 0-0 v 3rd. An inference that Beira Mar are not going to win, but could draw.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDDLLWWLW - 3 wins in last 4 v 13th home, 6th away and 16th away ( bottom side). Yes, not top 4 sides , but the very confidence of 3 wins in 4 might help Beira-Mar today?

GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs at home. 39% overs this season suggests focus on defence.BUT 4 of the last 5 matches were over 2.5 goals. Recent 1-2 home loss to Porto, and I would put Braga a level lower than Porto. 2 clean sheets in last 3 have come away from home.

STREAKS - 3 without a draw at home, 6 overall. Have scored in last 5 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Braga

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDLDLW - away defeat to Porto was close 3-2, draws against 6th and 7th away. . Braga are better at home than away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWLWDDLWW - Braga have scored 2-5-4 in last 3 matches. 

GOAL TRENDS - 29% over 2.5 goals away from home. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored and conceded in last 4 matches. Have only failed to score in last 3. 

STREAKS - 2 match winning streak overall. Have scored and conceded in last 4.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Braga are unlikely to lose this match. Both teams have strong goal trends which signals under 2.5 goals. BUT recently both sides have strong over 2.5 goals trends. 0-1, 1-2 and 1-1 potential scorelines for the speculative.

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