Friday 6 January 2012

6/1

A day off yesterday and a day spent headscratching what with all of those results that go against the form. All I do with my research is look coldly at form, but there are other factors such as team news, injuries, and fixture list congestion. Add to that list, today, the beginning of the January transfer market. We have already seen what a huge impact key signings can have - I speak of Martin O'Neill.So the transfer market is worth following.

And make note that the African Cup on Nations is soon upon us. The likes of Arsenal, Man City,Chelsea,  Newcastle will be most affected. Key players absent. And Newcastle without Demba Ba - how will they cope?

1130am - Torino v Albinoleffe - 1.54 home
HEAD TO HEADS

09.04.2011D2AlbinoLeffe1-2Torino FC
09.11.2010D2Torino FC1-0AlbinoLeffe
13.02.2010D2AlbinoLeffe0-1Torino FC
12.09.2009D2Torino FC2-1AlbinoLeffe

Tight matches throughout in head to heads. And Torino have won last 4 head to heads. They are priced to repeat this ( 1/2 indicates precisely what we see in the head to heads).

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 17th

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Torino

RECENT HOME FORM - DWDWWWDWW - unbeaten at home. Great form .Draws against 12th, 13th and 16th. 1-0 win against 18th. It might hint at another tight night, to reinforce the head to heads. 3 1-0's, 2 1-1's, and a 0-0 again point towards a potential for a tight match. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWWDDDWWLL - only 3 defeats this season, and 2 have happened in the last 2 matches against 19th and 20th away from home. Guess the losing scorelines for Torino 1-0 and 2-1 ( exactly the same winning scorelines in head to heads - I am aware these matches are away matches).These defeats came against 19th and 20th , yes away, and playing 17th at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 22% overs at home. That word " tight" again.0.55 conceded at home on average and 0.65 overall. 2 of the last 3 matches over 2.5 goals but this in no way reflects the general trend of under 2.5 goals for Torino this season.Torino have conceded in last 3 matches, and this after 4 out of 5 matches clean sheets. 

STREAKS - 9 at home without defeat. 2 match winning streak. Have scored in last 6 at home. Have conceded in last 3 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Albinoleffe

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLLLDDWL - only 2 wins away have come against 12th and 16th, where 3 goals were scored. 3 defeats away to 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and defeats v 2nd and 3rd were 1-0. Food for thought. Have lost all away against top 7 .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWLLLLWDDDWDLD - horrendous losing run has ended recently with only a single defeat in last 8 matches. 5 draws in last 8 matches, albeit against teams 6th and below, 4 of the draws came at home. 

GOAL TRENDS - 70% overs away from home and 65% overall in stark contrast to Torino. The majority of matches which made it over 2.5 goals came against 4th and more. Remember 2nd and 3rd away were 1-0 defeats. 5 of the last 8 matches under 2.5 goals. Last 2 matches clean sheets. Have kept a clean sheet in only 4 matches. 

STREAKS - have conceded in the last 3 away. No win in 3 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - knee jerk and the word " tight" has appeared on numerous occasions. Tightness therefore suggests a lay of odds on Torino based solely on reliance for Albinoleffe's defence standing firm long enough to ensure a profit. But Albinoleffe away have conceded 2 goals regularly, that is the concern, although they only lost 1-0 against 2nd and 3rd.
No correct scores predictions because Albinoleffe anomalous goalscoring antics concern me ( 1-3 win away, 2-2 draw, 5-3 away loss to 3rd.)
Torino are in poor form- a 2 match losing streak  , 2 of only 3 matches lost this season. A sign of vulnerability for torino.
value must lie in the lay initially in the hope there is no early goal for Torino. Under 2.5 goals as a trade too.

7pm - Rennes TA v Quevilly - 1.44 away - also known as Tour D'Avergne. - Quevilly are the Division 3 side. I don't know either of these teams.
8pm - Liverpool v Oldham - 1.16 home - Back now to a normalish schedule. Liverpool team all important. 1.16 obviously the value call for the lay.It's the FA Cup and Liverpool's record v minnows at home is questionable in all cup competitions.. We go to www.soccerway.com for a look at the FA Cup and Liverpool.

Sat03/01/09FACPreston North End0 - 2LiverpoolView eventsMore info
Sun25/01/09FACLiverpool1 - 1EvertonView eventsMore info
Wed04/02/09FACEvertonE1 - 0LiverpoolView eventsMore info
Sat02/01/10FACReading1 - 1LiverpoolView eventsMore info
Wed13/01/10FACLiverpool1 - 2EReadingView eventsMore info
Sun09/01/11FACManchester United1 - 0Liverpool


And at home? Questionable form from Liverpool

Tue15/01/08FACLiverpool5 - 0Luton TownMore info
Sat26/01/08FACLiverpool5 - 2Havant & Water…More info
Sat16/02/08FACLiverpool1 - 2BarnsleyMore info
Sun25/01/09FACLiverpool1 - 1EvertonView eventsMore info
Wed13/01/10FACLiverpool1 - 2EReading
Oldham are league one. In the FA Cup overall.

Sat05/01/08FACEverton0 - 1Oldham AthleticMore info
Sat26/01/08FACOldham Athletic0 - 1Huddersfield TownMore info
Sat08/11/08FACCheltenham Town2 - 2Oldham AthleticView eventsMore info
Tue18/11/08FACOldham Athletic0 - 1Cheltenham TownView eventsMore info
Sat07/11/09FACOldham Athletic0 - 2Leeds UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACAccrington Stanley3 - 2Oldham AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat12/11/11FACOldham Athletic3 - 1Burton AlbionView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACSouthend United1 - 1Oldham AthleticView eventsMore info
Tue13/12/11FACOldham Athletic1 - 0Southend United
We have to go back to 2008 for the last match against Premiership opponents and a tight 1-0 win away to Everton!. Hmmm.

Sat05/01/08FACEverton0 - 1Oldham AthleticMore info
Sat08/11/08FACCheltenham Town2 - 2Oldham AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat06/11/10FACAccrington Stanley3 - 2Oldham AthleticView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11FACSouthend United1 - 1Oldham Athletic
Not that good a record away in the Cup. Is Luis Suarez out of the Cup as well as the Premiership? Is Andy Carroll's confidence waivering. Do we sniff a potentially frustrating night, or is logic going to replace my doubt, and that 1.16 convert to a 3/4 or more goals to nil win. Again I return to the lay of Liverpool at such short odds. It is the value call, a trade to nothing with minimal downside. 0-0 back pre match could pay off if Oldham do some Roy of the Rovers defending.

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