1130am -
Feyenoord v Ajax - 2.38 away
HEAD TO HEADS
The odds reflect the tigtness of last year's head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 4th
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Feyenoord
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWLWLWW - defeats against 10th and 13th. 2-5-4 total goals against top 6 at home , scoring 2-3-2 and conceding 0 against PSV, 2 against Twente in a 3-2 win, and 2-2 v 5th Heerenveen.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWDLLWWWDWL - great recent run ended with a loss away 2-1 to VVV. ( 3rd bottom).Prior to that Feyenoord scored 4-2-2-2-3-1 ( scoring 1 in defeat and 4-3-2 in 4 wins and a draw). Generally competitive overall against top 5, losing only 2-1 away to AZ, and featuring 2 score draws
GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs at home, 3/4 matches will be overs if this continues. And generally heading to overs against top sides too.Strong overs trend this season overall. A good run of 7 consecutive matches scoring. Scored 2-3 against top sides. Will that continue today against another top side?
STREAKS - no draw in 6 at home. 2 match home winning streak. Have scored in last 6 overall and conceded in last 3 overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ajax
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWDLWLWWD - defeats against 8th and 14th.Have only played 1st and 2nd of the top 7, and both score draws .
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWLDWWWWD - the 6-4 away loss to Utrecht very anomolous. They do show an Ajax which could score bucket loads. They have scored 4-4-2-3-4-1-4-1. What will it be today?score draws home and away against top 3. Beat heerenveen at home 5-1 (5th) and beat 7th 4-1 at home. BUT are Ajax less flamboyant away?
GOAL TRENDS - 70% overs away from home. 72% overs overall ties in nicely with Feyenoord.Have only failed to score in one match all season. 6 overs in last 8 . Clean sheets in 3 of last 5 but no clean sheets home and away against top 7. After half an hour is when Ajax get their shooting boots on, scoring by far the most goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches ( 24 goals and 6 conceded).
STREAKS - Have scored in last 10 overall. No defeat in 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Can Feyenoord continue their promising trend scoring at least 2 against top teams at home. Both sides seem to be adept at scoring and conceding which lends itself to over 2.5 goals and the potential laying of the first goalscorer. Goal trends rather obviously for overs. Tough to call the loser/winner here with Feyenoord obviously good against top sides at home.
130pm -
Sunderland v Middlesbrough - 1.66 home - bookies favour the O'Neill revival and maybe we should take note. They were spot on with their Newcastle quote yesterday , which I thought was a touch high, and that saw the Geordies bow out 1-0 to Brighton. A wearside derby and derbies are always unpredictable but potentially good for cards backers. I am not going to research this any further .
130pm -
Twente v Groningen - 1.42 home
HEAD TO HEADS
A hint that overs ( as a trade) might have legs - dependent as always on the time of the 2nd goal.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 8th.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - chance to go 2nd on goal difference with a home win.
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDDWDWW - worse case a draw today?draws against 1st, 7th and 18th. In all bar one match at home, Twente have scored a minimum of 2 goals.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWDDWDDWWLW - too many draws, shared equally home and away. But like Ajax, Twente hint at big scoring at home. Look at last 4 matches - 6-2-2-5 scored .
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs at home. And largely scoring 2+ at home, this could be assured if allowing the opponents to score a goal. 29 goals scored in 2nd half.Generally the BIG scoring comes against bottom 7. HAve failed to score in only 1 this season.
STREAKS- 2 match home winning run. 9 at home without defeat. No goal conceded in 4 at home, largely agaisnt bottom sides but included a 0-0 v 7th.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Groningen
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLWLDLD - only 1 win away this season. Lost 6-1 away to 1st and 3-0 away to 5th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDWDWLDDWW - beat Ajax 1-0 at home ( but playing away today)4 defeats and a 0-0 draw away to top 10. Groningen are much better at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs away from home is typically Dutch. Failed to score in only 3 this season. Clean sheets in 2 of last 3. Score 61% of goals in 2nd half.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win. No defeat in 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again the goal trends stand out strongly here, but 2-0 is conceivable so success built on time of 2nd goal.Only 1 win for Groningen this season stacks the chips against them. Watch out for potential for 2nd half goals.Twente have failed to score in only 1 this season so if the match is 0-0 for a sustained period you will get better value in play if delaying entry.
FORM LAB
• Asian handicap: Twente have won by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Groningen have lost by two or more goals in 7/11 trips to top-six teams. Twente have won 14/19 home matches.
Top 3 indicators
1)Home HT draw v top half is a strong indicator
2) - Home draw/draw v top half
3) - home score last v all
2pm -
Ankaragucu v Trabzonspor - 1.22 away- always worth checking out these short prices , especially away, to see if we can get a better value goals trade.
HEAD TO HEADS
Trab scoring 3 last time out is in keeping with current odds today.
LEAGUE POSITION - 18th v 6th. A motivation for go 4th with a win against bottom side today.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ankar
RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLLWDDDL - signs of recovery in last 5 matches?3 consecutive draws 0-0 against 3rd, 9th and 16th. And if Ankar can keep 3rd out , then it suggests , if on form defensively, they can keep 6th out. The home win came against 3rd bottom. Defeats against 1st and 4th without scoring.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLDLWDLLL - last 3 draws were those 0-0'sMost recent win away v 12th. 3 defeats latest without scoring, but look at the 0-1 v 4th at home. Again a case of Ankar just going down.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home suggests dependent on opposition.Have not scored at home against top 4. Did score in 1-2 defeats against 5th and 8th. Have failed to score in 8 of the last 9 matches. Only clean sheets came in those 3 recent home 0-0's.
STREAKS - 4 at home without a win. Failed to score in last 4 at home and last 4 overall
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - TRAB
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWDWDDLWL -only 1 win in last 5 may make Trab vulnerable to a defensive side such as Ankar with their big Turkish bus parked infront of goal. 1-1 away draws against 9th, 12th, 13th, 17th. 0-1 away win against 15th and again we can argue for a potential struggle against 18th today away?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLLLWWWWLW - Only 1 away win in the last 5 wins. But Trab are finding the onion bag, scoring 4-2-2-4-1-4 . They tend to score 2 maximum away from home though. 8 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals.
GOAL TRENDS - 20% overs away from home could fall into Ankar's hands and recounts that Trab score 3+ against bottom teams, but at home and score a max 2 away. They have only failed to score in 4 this season so this could conceivably be 0-0 for a while, and Ankar could succumb a bit later on. Only kept 4 clean sheets this season, but 3 of those were away and all wins.
STREAKS - no draw in 9 overall, Have scored in last 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 3 consecutive recent 0-0 home draws , including one against 4th, suggest that if Ankar's defence is solid, they could get something here. Although having failed to score against top 3, they went 0-1 down to 4th and 0-0 v 3rd and 9th. Have scored 1 in 1-2 losses to 5th and 8th but most recent scorelines suggests Ankar will be tough to score against today. FAilure to score in 8 of last 9 could suggest a 0-0, or a loss to nil.
A lot of 1-1's away for Trab but no draw in last 9 overall. Have also scored well recently but largely at home. Trab seem to limit themselves to 2 goals away max. Interestingly, all Trab wins away were to nil so if you expect a win, they to nil. I would include 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 as the most likely scorelines. If Ankar are on their " A " game defensively , then we can back 0-0 at the start of the match and hope their Turkish Bus is big enough to fill the goal. Under 2.5 goals is likely to be good odds as the majority of punters are expecting a trouncing.
This for me is all about Ankar and how long they can hold out.
FORM LAB
• +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/19 Ankaragucu home matches and in 6/8 Trabzonspor away matches against bottom-six teams. Trabzonspor have won 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
Form lab is looking at form away from this season. I personally look at current season only.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home lose v all
2) - Home concede first v all
3) - Home lose v top half.
2pm -
Lecce v Inter - 1.67 away
HEAD TO HEADS
Emphatic in December, and not priced to replicate. Clearly an Inter in improving form.
LEAGUE POSITION - 19th v 4th and I would have expected a shorter price given the position of Lecce but it recounts that this is Italy and this is an away match for Inter.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Lecce
RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLDLLL - defeats at home to 1st, 2nd , 3rd and 5th, and guess what position they are playing today?Interestingly, ding dong 3-4 v AC Milan and 2-3 v Lazio contrasts with 0-1 v Juve and 0-2 v Udinese. What will it be today?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDWLLLLDLLWD - recent draw a 2-2 home draw v Verona. Last 2 wins, both away, were both 0-1. Have lost all 8 matches home and away against top 8 but did score in 5 of them.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. Interesting averages. Score 1 and concede 2 on average at home. Have conceded in all home matches this season.6 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. The exceptions all 1-0's. All clean sheets this season ( 4) came away from home.
STREAKS - 9 at home without a win. Have conceded in last 9 home matches .
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Inter Milan
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLDWWWW - hitting their stride away in last 5 matches. BUT, note, last 4 away wins all 0-1 and all 2nd half goals and the draw prior to that was a 1-1.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWWWWWWW - rock solid of late and early season jitters put to bed. Inter more emphatic at home but 3 consecutive edgy 0-1 aways could leave them vulnerable to a home side scoring 2.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. Have scored in all away matches, but as we see, JUST ABOUT in some matches. Hanging on to 0-1's is not a good habit. 3 of last 4 overs but they were home matches. 6 clean sheets in last 9 for Inter could hint at a win to nil away. Have failed to score in only 3 matches this season.
STREAKS - 4 match away winning streak. No draw in 11 overall. No defeat in 7 overall. Have scored in last 7 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Lecce are unpredictable at home against the big boys Scoring 3 and 2, or losing to nil. One thing is for sure, they have lost all 8 matches home and away to top 8, and lost all 4 home matches against top 5. So we are looking at an away win. And Inter have won their last 3 matches away 0-1. Now either this sequence will end as these types of sequences do or will continue. 6 clean sheets in last 9 suggest Inter could keep Lecce at bay, and a 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 scoreline has a chance of success.
Speculators might like to back 0-0 early incase Inter have trouble scoring ( last 4 away goals all came in 2nd half). 0-0 halftime is realistic and then back at better odds if delaying entry into the market.
Goal trends?44% for both is non committal to either overs or unders.
FORM LAB
2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 4/6 Lecce home matches against Big Four teams while Inter Milan have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches. Inter Milan have scored first in 9/10 away matches.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home Draw/Lose v all - a strong indicator this one ( 4.93 out of 5) - and that ties in with a potential 0-0 and Inter 2nd half win that I hint at above.
2) - Home lose v all
3) - Home concede last v all.
2pm -
Roma v Bologna - 1.45 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Roma 5 wins in 6 head to heads must be feeling confident at home. Last 2 home matches saw them score 2 goals.
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 16th
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Roma
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLWDWW - defeats at home v AC Milan 2-3 and Cagliari 1-2.Bologna are bottom 6 and Roma have beaten 15th, 18th and 19th and drew 1-1 with 17th. In those matches, they did concede at least 1 goal.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWLLDWWWW - 4 match winning streak must instill confidence.Scoring 3-2-2-5 in those 4 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches. 2 clean sheets in last 3. Roma have only failed to score in 3 matches this season.
STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home.Have scored in last 9 home matches. 4 match winning streak overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bologna
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLWWLDLD - all away draws 1-1 draws. Have only played 1st , 3rd and 7th of top 7, with 2 1-1 draws against 1st and 7th. Lost 2-0 to 3rd.6 away to top 12 out of 7 saw Bologna concede and score. 1-1 springs to mind as an opening gambit .
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLLDWDLLWDD - against top 8 home and away, 5 defeats and 3 score draws saw Bologna concede in all 8 matches. 4 of 5 wins this season have come against 13th and lower.
GOAL TRENDS - 22% over 2.5 goals away from home is quite a stat. 2 over 2.5 goals matches away were losses v 8th and 11th. If this unders stat is to continue, and Roma are to win, then 1-0 and 2-0 look obvious scorelines. Only 5 matches over 2.5 goals all season.
STREAKS - have scored and conceded in last 4 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Bologna seem likely to concede away from home. And they are unlikely to come away from this away fixture with a win.All away draws 1-1 . Bologna could sway things to under 2.5 goals so if Roma win it should be 1-0 or 2-0 if under 2.5 goals is to continue.
• 1st goal: Roma have scored first in 11/12 home matches against bottom-half teams while Bologna have lost 8/12 away matches against Big Four teams. Roma have won the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams.
1) - both teams score v Bottom 6
2) - home ht win v bottom 6
3) - equal goals in both halves v all
3pm -
Falkirk v Celtic - 1.24 away
HEAD TO HEADS
CIS INSURANCE CUP match. I just noticed that Falkirk are not in the SPL at the moment.Goals Goals Goals for Falkirk matches in the CIS Cup lately.3-4-1-7-3-6-4-5-2 total goals in recent fixtures. And in CIS v Old Firm, 3-0 and 4-0 defeats and 3-2 home win v Rangers in Sept 2011 which saw 3 goals in last 7 minutes of the match.
Celtic love the cup, only loss in 90 minutes recently was a 0-1 v Hearts in 2009.Since that loss to Hearts, Celtic have scored 6-3-4-1-2-4 in CIS matches in 90 minutes.
Suggestion for an exciting afternoon with Falkirk up for the Cup and hoping to continue their solid goalscoring record at home in this competition. Over 2.5 goals must have a reasonable chance and value seekers could go to over 4.5 goals.
315pm -
Doxa Dramas v Panathinaikos - 1.36 away
HEAD TO HEADS
Doxa are gaining quite a reputation with me at home . Greek Buses are made for Doxa to park infront of goal.
LEAGUE POSITION - 16th v 1st, and due respect to Doxa that Pana are not shorter. A game in hand for Pana over Oly and Pana are still 1st so this is a great opportunity to increase the gap.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Doxa
RECENT HOME FORM - DLLLDLW - recent win a 1-0 v 11th. Against top 6 it's 0-0 v 2nd (Oly)and defeats to nil against 4th, 5th and 6th. The famed Doxa rear guard action at home ended with a 1-3 loss to Aris in 2nd last home match. Could this be a way in for Pana to ensure a more comfortable win than the 1-0 home win very recently?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLDDLLLW - draws and wins came without conceding ( 0-0's and 1-0). 8 matches home and away against the top 6 saw 6 defeats to nil and 2 0-0 draws.
GOAL TRENDS - 14% overs at home. Scoring 0.21 on average overall.In 11 of 13 matches played, Doxa have failed to score. They have scored in last 2 matches though but not against top 8 home and away.
STREAKS - 4 overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Pana
RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWWDLWDW - all 3 draws away were 1-1 v 2nd , 7th and 12th. Have scored 3 against 4th and 5th but only 2 maximum against rest of sides. 0-2 away win v 13th, 0-1 v 14th. Yet to play 15th and 16th away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWDWWWWW - check it out girlfriend - 4 1-0's in last 5 wins. 3 of those 1-0's came at home but may point to concerns with really closing out matches. A 3-0 last match ( home match) may have put these 1-0 scary scorelines to bed?Have played 5 matches home and away v bottom 6, conceding only 1 goal and winning all matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs away from home. Have scored in all matches this season suggests if the match is to go on 0-0 , we can, again, delay entry into the market and back Pana at better odds. Pana have kept a clean sheet last 5 matches coinciding with 5 of last 6 matches being under 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - Have scored in last 18 overall. 5 match winning streak includes 4 1-0's
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS 0-0 a back to lay again perhaps? Slight niggle that the normally impenetrable Doxa lost 1-3 recently at home. All trends point to unders but with Pana ending a 4 match 1-0 winning streak with a 3-0 and Doxa losing 1-3 at home recently, we might get a surprise.
Pana to win to nil likely and if a concerted 0-0, back Pana as late on as possible as they have scored in all matches this season.
4pm -
Arsenal v Aston Villa - 1.61 home - another imponderable for me this match. FA Cup and Arsenal must be looking to progress with City and United both out. A premiership clash makes it unappetising for me from a research perspective.
5pm -
Fenerbahce v Mersin Idman Yurdu -1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
October's meeting a tight match, but Fener a different animal at home?
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 12th. I have not heard of "Paul" Mersin before. They must be newcomers.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Fener
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWWWWWW - great home record. 4 1-0's interspersed with 3 matches with Fener scoring 4 goals. In 3 of the last 4 matches, we see Fener scoring 4-3-4 so they are on the crest of a wave rather than hanging on for 1-0's. 6 clean sheets at home encouraging .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLWWDDWWWL - all defeats have come away and to top 8 sides suggesting Fener must be confident today.
GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs at home down to keeping the concession rate to 0.6 on average at home Score 2 on average at home. Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals has seen Fener really get their scoring boots working. They have failed to score in only 4 matches this season so are more likely to score than not.
STREAKS - 6 match home winning streak. 10 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Mersin.
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDLDWDWLL - last 2 defeats both 1-0 defeats away to 9th and 15th - 3 away defeats all 1-0 . Against the top 9 a touch of the Doxa's here with 0-0 away to Galatasary, 1-0 loss to 5th, 0-0 v 8th and 1-0 loss to 9th. A tough frustrating opponent for Fenerbahce today? Or will Fener continue a fine recent run of goalscoring?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWDDWWDLLLLL - 5 match losing streak not what is wanted when meeting one of the big boys. 2-1 or 2-0 defeats at home, and those 1-0 defeats away .
GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs away from home. 10 in last 13 matches under 2.5 goals. In last 7 away matches we see 1-0 , 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 3-5, 1-0, 1-0. Totally anomolous 3-5 in the middle there against 3rd bottom.
STREAKS - 5 match losing streak overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - another tough goal trends match for me to call today. Mersin could keep this really tight so if you think that, then back 0-0 . All defeats away 0-1 - this is a sequence that could end today. Fenerbahce have scored 3-4-3 recently so could conceivably score a lot more today.
Tough call for me. Look at Mersin's recent scorelines and look at Fener's recent goal laden scorelines and decide which is more likely.
FORM LAB
•
1st half outcome: Fenerbahce have won the first half in 11/12 home matches against middle-third teams and they have had W/W double results in 11/13 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 Mersin IY away matches.
5pm -
Sp Lisbon v Beira-Mar - 1.39 home
HEAD TO HEADS
tight last 2 matches a sign Beira could have the measure of Sporting?
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 10th
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Sporting
RECENT HOME FORM - DLWWWWD - loss v 5th 2-3 sole loss at home. Trouble at home v top 9, and goal filled 6-3-3against 11th and lower. And guess what? They are playing 10th today.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWLWDDLD - gone off the b
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
715pm -
Gil Vicente v Porto - 1.37 away
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE POSITION
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT HOME FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
745pm -
AC Milan v Cagliari - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
LEAGUE POSITION
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT HOME FORM
RECENT FORM OVERALL
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM
RECENT OVERALL FORM
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
