27/12

Bangor City look nailed on here although this is only a match odds/goals game and is not in running. I don't know about the weather either.
The 1210 Southwell is very interesting but the standard to slow ground might be a challenge for these 2 year olds. At any rate, Evens Stevens has won 3 on the bounce and could be vulnerable in the win only market.
The 300 Southwell is the best probability race of the day and really should finish with opus Dei and Faithful Duchess first and 2nd in whatever order. This makes Faithful Duchess the value call here at around 1.17

*****ONE A DAY -Nothing for me today -I really do not want to bet on standard to slow ground on an already difficult Fibresand surface*****

If pressed, then Bangor City and Faithful Duchess are the 2 for me ( my best bet would be Faithful Duchess)

The Arsenal Chelsea match is intriguing - how much of a decline are Chelsea in? What difference will the return of Fat Frank have? Chelsea normally score 2 or more against Arsenal but in last 7 have scored 0,1,0,0,1,1,1 .







Man Utd continued to score 2 at home ( with Arsenal match the only exception), Celtic ended a run of 3 draws at home on the trot, and Anderlecht, after 70 minutes, were 4-0 up replicating previous scorelines that Lierse had suffered. It is a pity that Betfair only really go as far as 3-3 for their correct scores as 4-0 was screaming out yesterday from the analysis ( eventually ended 6-0)

230PM - Bangor City v Prestatyn - 1.22 home - although I suspect the weather might have a say, this looks a straightforward home win with Bangor 9 from 9 at home this season, ( I cannot really find a proper website to do my usual analysis here as the game does not show up on www.futbol24.com - Bangor are clear at the top of the league with 15 wins and 1 draw this season.
Prestatyn have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 5 and they have won 2 lost 5 away.

730om - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - postponed on www.futbol24.com but Betfair still have the market available. Do I do analysis or not? I will leave it I think
8pm - Arsenal v Chelsea - are there any angles in here? - Chelsea have the last 5 head to heads sown up, scoring no less than 2 on each occasion home and away.
But this is a Chelsea faltering at present. LWLLDDD in the Premiership in their last 7 matches not good enough and has opened the door to all comers for the title.
6 points below Man Utd and one point behind Arsenal.
Arsenal's last draw came 19 matches ago and with Chelsea drawing their last 3, which way will the draw go today? Will Arsenal avoid the draw or will Chelsea see another draw?
5 wins and 3 losses at home for Arsenal. They have not played the top 4 at home yet so tough to gauge ( historically they tend to lose against top 4 sides)
3/4 of home matches are over 2.5 goals for Arsenal.
Nasri and Chamakh should ideally be playing as they are quite clearly the top scorers.

Chelsea have scored 0,1,0,0,1,1,1 in their last 7 matches in the Premiership - we can quite clearly see where the problem lies.
In their 4 aways against top 10 sides, it's 2 losses and 2 draws.
This 1-1 sequence must end soon surely - 3 on the trot!
I foresee a tight match today , despite the strong overs stat for Arsenal at home ( remember they have not played top 4 at home)

Their record against Man Utd and Chelsea is woeful. Fat Frank is back for Chelsea which could help assuage the draws and Drogba has scored 13 in 13 v the Arse.

1210 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Even Stevens, 5/1 Shostakovich, 8/1 Mazovian, 8/1 Winning Draw, 10/1 Reachtothestars, 10/1 Restless Bay, 12/1 Veeb, 33/1 William Wainwright.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he has shot up in the weights since completing his hat-trick 11 days ago, EVEN STEVENS (nap) is still hard to oppose. Mazovian and Shostakovich can follow him home. [Adrian Cook]

A nursery on a changeable Southwell fibresand surface - I'll get me coat!!

Price gapper here who has won at Southwell last twice, including on slow surface. 3 wins on the trot and this winning run must end soon surely?

There are only 4 under 14/1 here which suggests a value alternative bet and Shostakovich and Mazovian could be the 2 to oppose the fav with?

8 runners and 3 places makes this very interesting for place only players. 1.25 for Evens and 1.88 Shosta and around 2 for Mazovian to place but very illiquid markets.

300 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Opus Dei, 13/8 Faithful Duchess, 14/1 Rose Bed, 33/1 Red Rani.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both OPUS DEI and Faithful Duchess have had plenty of chances but both act here and should dominate their rivals, with preference for the Nicholls gelding who has cheekpieces back on today.[Adrian Cook]

4 horses, 2 places, and 2 horses under 14/1 only. Simples as the Meerkat would say?

Both principles have that crucial Southwell experience and Opus Dei has it on standard and on slow at Southwell and that may tip the balance in his favour. Slight concern that Opus finished 3rd of 6 last twice ( and thus out of the places) - highly illiquid market so these are only guide prices - Opus 1.08 and Faithful duchess 1.18

I would naturally opt for the Faithful Duchess as the value call today - standard to slow today though and Faithful has only run on standard where she did not find much in her last race.

SHORTLIST

230PM - Bangor City v Prestatyn - 1.22 home- the stats I could find point to domination by the home side 9/9 this season

1210 SOUTHWELL - the favourite is expected ( well priced) to win again - 3 wins on the trot and in handicaps ( nurseries are 2 year old handicaps) -these winning sequences must end soon. This brings in Shostakovich and Mazovian into the equation in an ideal8 runners and 3 places race - 1.8 and 2.24 for these 2 to place and 1.2 for Evens Stevens to place.

Again the standard to slow ground is a big problem - as I remember all too well, a red hot favourite recently finished unplaced because he was encountering standard to slow ground for the first time on the all weather.

300 SOUTHWELL - faith in the betting market surely here? 2 horses under 14/1 in a 4 horse race. Opus Dei and Faithful Duchess are the 2 the market thinks must dominate. Faithful duchess the obvious value place call here despite personal preference for Opus Dei who has all weather experience on Southwell's Standard fibresand and Southwell's Standard to Slow ground, while Faithful princess is only experienced on Standard at Southwell.

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