WWLWWWDW at home this season for Trab , unbeaten in last 5.
Last met Karab for the sole head to head in a cup game in 2008 which indicates that the away side must be newly promoted.
LWDDDLLL away for Karab this season, their 6th place is largely down to home form. Have only won 1 match away all season and playing the top side now. The draw is a slight concern.
6 of the last 7 away matches have been over 2.5 goals , karab have scored in their last 3 away and have conceded 2,5,2 in those matches too.
karab have lost 2 and drawn 1 of last 3 matches.
7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.34 home - it's those pesky over 2.5 goal 100% record Fortunas again. Will they keep up the phenomenal 100% over 2.5 goal stat for another week. An away win 3-2 last week, surely not another away win on the trot. 9th against 18th ( bottom) -I did a full analysis of Fortuna last week and we know they got that away win 2-3 over a 1.17 side.
They have already lost 4-0 to Den Bosch at home this season. Fortuna concede an average of 3 away from home. Trust goals bet again incase lightening strikes twice?
2 1-1's on the trot for Den Bosch a slight worry as far as overs is concerned, but can we rely on the leakiness of Fortuna's defence?
Den Bosch have only won 1 match in their last 8, drawing 5 and losing 2 matches - they do not seem to be very reliable betting mediums .
Den have only played one match at home against bottom 3 , winning 3-1 to 3rd from bottom.
7pm - Maastricht v Zwolle - 1.6 away - preferable to look for a goals angle here as the goals average for this league is phenomenal - 16th v top so worth investigating.
0-0 last head to head
8 game winning streak for Zwolle is excellent. 7 of those matches were over 2.5 goals with the other 2-0.
10 of Zwolle's last 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Zwolle have not played any of the bottom 4 away from home so we have no real look into whether the bottom sides make life hard when they have home advantage. The 0-0 Maastricht managed at home to Zwolle is a niggle for Zwolle backers and goals bettors.
The only dropped points away for Zwolle were against top 3 sides, they won all others against those outside the top 3.
88% of their away matches have finished over 2.5 goals ( yet still that 0-0 niggle H2H remains)
DDWLLWDW at home -only 2 losses at home for Maastricht. Against the top 5 at home, Maastricht have drawn 2 and lost 1 with 2 of those matches over 2.5 goals. 75% of their home matches were over 2.5 goals.
745pm - Twente v Heracles - 1.25 home - Twente playing on a Friday night for the first time in a long time and are usually reliable , being as they are one of the triumvirate in the top flight of Dutch football.
WWWWWD in head to heads for Twente. 0-0 draw in latest head to heads with Heracles ( away to Heracles) - like the Zwolle match, another 0-0.
2nd v 14th and Twente are 1 point behind PSV at the top.
LLWWL in last 5 in the league for Twente is a big worry and a dip in form.
2 losses came away from home and 1 at home, but worryingly these 3 losses are the only losses all season for Twente.
8 losses and a draw for Heracles away from home gives Twente some hope of recording a much needed win.
heracles have lost their last 3 away matches, conceding 2 or more. Can we put that 0-0 head to head to bed as an aberation and expect Twente to continue afoot?
1225 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Rock On Ruby, 5/1 State Benefit, 7/1 Iron Chancellor, 7/1 On His Own, 7/1 Viking Visitor, 8/1Inga Bird, 14/1 Faultless Feelings, 16/1 The White Admiral, 20/1 Dovecote Wood, 20/1 Troy Tempest, 33/1 Faith Keeper, 40/1Bianco Fuji, 50/1 Rathconrath, 200/1 Fillyofthevalley, 200/1 Master Alfredo.
It is not easy to compare the credentials of a batch of interesting recruits from points and bumpers with those who have already run over hurdles. Iron Chancellor may be the pick on hurdling form but could have his work cut out against the above-average bumper winner ROCK ON RUBY in particular. Viking Visitor could be the pick of the others.[Frank Carter]
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Toubab, 7/4 Kid Cassidy, 4/1 Frascati Park, 10/1 Iolith, 20/1 Araldur, 33/1 Seeking The Buck.
Frascati Park has very solid form but is ideally served by a bit further and looks vulnerable to relative unknown quantities inKid Cassidy and TOUBAB (nap). Kid Cassidy is significantly up in class from an average novice event at Newbury but Toubab looked a class act in winning a Listed event at Haydock and, although possibly flattered by his BHA mark of 144 (12lb above Frascati Park), must be hard to beat.[Frank Carter]
A very interesting race, albeit only 2 to place. Toubab " must be hard to beat" - very confident from Spotlight.
Only 3 under 14/1 with the market indicating Kid and Toubab set to dominate. Frascati Park is the obvious fly in the ointment.
210 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Surfing, 7/2 West With The Wind, 5/1 Bouggler, 8/1 Cois Farraig, 8/1 Harry Tricker, 10/1 Hidden Keel, 12/1 Pearlysteps, 12/1 The Knoxs, 16/1 Squadron.
- Well-contested affair but one that largely revolves around whether ex-French 4yo SURFING, whose trainer has said "he´s as exciting as they get", lives up to expectations. He was still well in contention when a bad mistake put paid to his chances in Grade 3 company at Auteuil in June (had jumped perfectly well when easily winning his previous start) and his age allowance is a big advantage. Market confidence would be particularly significant. Bouggler, successful in this grade over hurdles, also figures highly in calculations.[Steven Boow]
- So Surfing is " as exciting as they get" is he? Quite something from Henderson, and Geraghty on board could ensure Surfing shows that potential.
- 1235 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Phase Shift, 7/4 Frosty Friday, 4/1 Night Witch, 33/1 Jacquotte
A decent opportunity for PHASE SHIFT, who´s been shaping well in third at different AW tracks and has more to offer.Frosty Friday can fill second.[Ben Osborne]
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Malpas Missile, 3/1 Zeavola, 12/1 Miss Firefox, 14/1 Layla´s Princess, 14/1 These Dreams, 16/1 Zareena, 25/1 Boushra, 100/1 Buon Compleanno.
MALPAS MISSILE boasts the form and experience to record a long overdue first success for the on-song Tom Dascombe.Zeavola can chase her home.[Ben Osborne]
Only 2 under 18/1 currently - Malpas Missile an obvious choice here, but surely the value placer is 2nd fav Zeavola. A class 6 2 year old maiden so we accept the risks!!
Has not run on the all weather.
Zeavola, on the other hand, has run 3 times on the all weather.
240 WOLVES - Standard to slow ground a concern.
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Cloud Illusions, 7/2 Bassett Road, 4/1 Goal, 10/1 Big City Boy.
A gilt-edged opportunity for CLOUD ILLUSIONS to build upon the potential shown in Listed company at Newbury last time. The tremendous recent form shown by Tom Dascombe makes Bassett Road a potential threat.[Ben Osborne]
2 horses only under 14/1 - can Cloud illusions take advantage of this " gilt edged opportunity"? Debut on all weather but US pedigree negates this?
SHORTLIST
- unbeaten in last 11
- lost one only this season at home - 4 wins and a draw in last 5 at home
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