Horse racing wise, the shortlist would include Priceless art with that important course and distance success and run on standard to slow. Elsewhere Mourad and Shirley Casper would be of interest here
*****ONE A DAY 200 LEOPARDSTOWN - MOURAD TO PLACE ONLY *****
I wish this was live as we could have reacted to Even Stevens withdrawal as Shostakovich won and Mazovian 3rd.
The Arsenal Chelsea game was difficult to evaluate but Arsenal are now 20 without a draw and Chelsea continue to be unable to score more than 1 in a premiership match.
3pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.5 home - WDWWLDDWL at home - inconsistent to say the least. Must react to Chelsea's loss and consolidate home advantage today.Only 1 loss in last 8 matches for City is good form.Villa are 15th, and against 13th and 14th City have drawn 1 and lost 1. Potential for a niggly match?
Villa away have lost all 6 matches to top 13 sides so you would expect City to continue this trend.
LLWLLD away for Villa is poor. They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches so enter this contest in poor form.
WDW for City in 2009 and 2010 head to heads augurs well for this afternoon.
6 of Villa's last 7 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Sunderland v Blackpool - 1.64 home - all 4 losses this season for the Black Cats have come away from home so we expect a win or draw at home which brings in the lay of Blackpool. At 6.6 to lay, this is equivalent to a 1.17 back bet.
DWDDWWDWW at home for Sunderland.
WLWLWLLDDW for Blackpool away - unbeaten in their last 3 aways.
6th to 10th in the league away from home it is DWWW for Blackpool ( Sunderland are 7th)
This indicates that the top 4 are a step too far but there is some parity with those outside the upper echelon.
This now puts into question the lay of Blackpool.
Blackpool have a 75% overall record for over 2.5 goals. Away from home it is only 60%
Sunderland at home is 22% over 2.5 goals. Attack v defence?
Tough match to get an angle into.
3pm - Tottenham v Newcastle - 1.58 home - Tight against the top 10 at home, 3 draws and a win, with the Geordies 9th.
Spurs are unbeaten in 7 matches -DLWWDDWWD at home so solidity - Van Der Vaart is an important returnee
Newcastle have struggled away to top 6 with 3 losses and a 1-0 win v Arsenal.
I am retiscent about betting when there has been a change of manager as the previous results may have been gained with a previous manager's tactical formations and attitude. This might change results now with Pardew in ( the big name chosen to, ahem, attract the Sky cameras to St James Park ( snigger!!))
4 of Newcastle's last 5 matches have been over 3.5 goals. 2 heavy away defeats in the last 2 indicate Pardew may have upset the balance a little?
Newcastle have only failed to score once in their last 13 matches which signals perhaps that a neutral goals bet may give us a betting angle here?
8pm - Birmingham v Man Utd - 1.54 away - a game and 2 points in front , can get away with a draw but a win prefered with Chelsea faltering last night. 9 draws have kept Brum 4th from bottom. WDDLWDWD at home for Birningham - they remain steadfast at home.
Last 4 head to heads have been 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 1-1 ( all wins for United)
Guess the scorelines of Brum's last 5 Premiership matches - 0-0, 1-0 , 1-1, 1-1, 1-0
Can we safely assume today will see under 3.5 goals? Add in the congestion of Xmas and we could see another tight encounter. Interestingly United away has been either 0-0 or United scoring 2 or more.
WDWD last 4 at home includes win over Chelsea and keeping Spurs at bay. I would prefer a neutral bet here as Brum could nick a 1-0.
1220 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 So Young, 5/1 Ruler Of All, 6/1 Tom Horn, 7/1 Resolute Bay, 8/1 Changing Times, 8/1 Harpsy Cord, 8/1 The Engineer, 10/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Under The Arch, 12/1 Inish Island, 16/1 Galvanising, 20/1 Senior Again, 20/1 Shariyan, 20/1 Too Late To Sell, 25/1 Court Knee, 25/1 Mr Meaner, 25/1 Young Dale, 33/1 Memories Of Milan, 33/1 Minella Special, 33/1 Mughal Empire, 33/1 Optimal Power, 33/1 Tango Jo, 50/1 Dont Tell De Purty, 50/1 Edmundo, 50/1 Maharaja.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: French import So Young is sure to have his supporters first time over hurdles but the first-time blinkered RULER OF ALL edges the vote over Resolute Bay with Changing Times another who looks open to improvement. [Brian Fleming]
So Young is a Mullins/Townend recruit backed into 6/4 so deserves maximum respect. Do note the large field, soft to heavy ground and maiden hurdle status of this race.
200 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mourad, 9/2 Mossey Joe, 13/2 Oscar Dan Dan, 7/1 Shinrock Paddy, 8/1 Powerstation, 10/1 Rigour Back Bob, 16/1 Alpine Glade, 16/1 Rick, 20/1 Moskova, 20/1 Summit Meeting, 200/1 Garrai Ard.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a fine opportunity for MOURAD following an encouraging start to the season in the Hatton's Grace, an effort that gives him the measure of Oscar Dan Dan. Though Mossey Joe is faced with a big jump in class here he should not be out of place, and could make a major impact providing that he settles effectively. [Alan Sweetman]
Price gapper again for Mullins/Townend in this hurdles race. Follow the market? Has won in heavy.
245 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Shirley Casper, 4/1 Back Me Up, 9/2 Gentle Alice, 14/1 Beg La Eile, 14/1 Clever Creation, 20/1 Lady Shanakill, 20/1 Radharc Na Mara, 25/1 Ahsurelookit, 33/1 Big Allice, 33/1 Conrich, 33/1 Julies Vic, 33/1 Mill Hill Suzi, 50/1 Florida Pet, 50/1 Miss Taggle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Her overall hurdles form is the best on offer and her effort at Naas last month after an 18-month absence shows that SHIRLEY CASPER has plenty more to offer. She looks too good for this opposition. Back Me Up is an intriguing chasing debutant but the main danger may well be Gentle Alice, who ran far better than her finishing position at Thurles last month. [Justin OHanlon]
Soft to heavy - heavy in places and a beginners chase but " looks too good for this opposition"
Now 1/2 and only 3 under 14/1 so barring accidents this should give us a good run for our money.
1205 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lady Rosamunde, 7/2 Isingy Red, 9/2 Links Drive Lady, 8/1 Tornado Force, 10/1 The Tichborne, 14/1 Apple Dumpling, 20/1 Phoenix Flame, 25/1 Fantale.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LADY ROSAMUNDE, proming on debut and very well bred, is likely to prove hard to beat for stable which is 3-4 with 2yos this month. Isingy Red may give her most to do.[Frank Carter]
3 under 14/1 here and Lady Rosamunde " likely to prove hard to beat"
2 year old maiden and has only one run - trust probability?
120 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Priceless Art, 8/1 Next Exit, 11/1 Sheepclose, 12/1 Easton Clump, 12/1 Ouest Eclair, 16/1 Jack The Gent, 25/1 Erin Dancer, 50/1 Royal Crystal, 66/1 Are Olive, 66/1 Beau D´argent.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRICELESS ART won a weak race here last week with his rider looking round for non-existent dangers and can go in again. Irish Symphony could be the one to beat.[Paul Johnson]
Huge price gapper and also has a win at Southwell and importantly ( like winner Opus Dei yesterday) in standards and slow - 1.31 for the win and 1.07 to place.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Tottenham v Newcastle - 1.58 home - another neutral bet preferred here and over 1.5 goals at 1.23 looks the safer play for a Newcastle side who have had over 3.5 goals in 4/5 matches and who have scored in 12/13 matches.
8pm - Birmingham v Man Utd - 1.54 away - likely to be a 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 if head to heads and Birmingham's recent scorelines are anything to go by, but United draw 0-0 or score 2 or more away from home. A huge case of drawitis away is a concern for United and Brum are not quite the team to play to change this.
1.32 under 3.5 goals would be my play here, the safer play under 4.5 goals at 1.13 -I would insist on trading ( i.e. if 0-0 at half time, I would look to trade out of the 1.32 - pure common sense really )
0-0 looks backable to trade ( like the Arsenal match yesterday where it was 0-0 for 40 minutes) as this is likely to be tight early on ( cue another Berbatov 5th minute goal)
200 LEOPARDSTOWN - Mourad looks good for a place here with a clear round. 1.4 to place is tempting but accounts for the ground conditions. Mullins/Townend are rarely unplaced when on price gappers.
245 LIMERICK - Shirley Casper looks sure to improve on comeback chase run last time out and is warm order to do so at around 1.18 to place. A beginners chase but has a couple of chase runs and the analysis of last race indicated a good jumper. Illiquid betting market at present.
120 SOUTHWELL - a course and distance winner, Priceless art is a huge price gapper and importantly has had the experience ( winning) on Southwell when it is standard to slow as it will be today.
1.3 to win is enticing here . 1.07 to place looks nailed on.
Next exit and Ouest Eclair , the only other 2 under 25/1 could be the value each way plays here.
8pm - Birmingham v Man Utd - 1.54 away -under 4.5 goals at 1.13 looks very appealing. Risk under 3.5 goals at 1.3 instead? Looking at head to heads and Birmingham's home record, they are tough to beat. The Xmas concertina of matches though might bring anomolous results.
3pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.5 home - 1.28 over 1.5 goals - 6 of Villa's last 7 matches over 2.5 goals is standout here but 0,0,0,1,1 the goals scored at home by City last 5 at home could put a dampener on this. Last 3 matches though, have seen 4,3,4 goals.
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