10/12

Will QPR's unbeaten sequence remain in tact this evening? If so, then laying Watford is interesting.

Al Ferof has not seen a fence in anger but is strong at 1.15

I am pinning my hopes today on Ballydoyle taking advantage of nearest market rivals' absence and placing at least.

*****ONE A DAY - 900 DUNDALK - BAck Regents Secret to place only*****
Concerns that this is a 2 year old with a single run under his belt only but in a race where only 4 can really be fancied, I hope he will place at least.

If possible I will do an update nearer to 830pm incase the market signals prove negative ( after all it is 8+ hours wil race time)



Ebraam won and D'artagnan placed 2nd for the value - a pity I did not go with them and was put off with the slower ground. It seems when I ignore changeable ground the horse does not place, and when I am cautious, they win and place.

215pm - Zamalek v Bany Ebeid - 1.26 home - Egyptian Cup match - simply go with the odds - that's all I can do here
7pm - Chauvigny v Chateauroux - 1.26 away - Coupe de France - Chateauroux are Division 2 and I do not know how much lower in the League Chauvigny are.
745pm - Heracles v VVV - 1.45 home - I am a little confused here as these matches are appearing on Betfair under 11/12 rather than 10th - last 3 head to heads have been 1-0 ( 2 to VVV and one to Heracles) so historically this is a tight match and could go either way, and as they say on Dragon's Den, for that reason, I'm out.
745pm - QPR v Watford - 1.78 home - QPR are worth investigating as they are top. Unbeaten all season so immediately good propositions. WWWWDDDWWW - went through a patch of drawing at home but resumed on the winning thread. Superb home form.
Playing 10th place Watford today and interestingly for QPR, against 3rd to 11th there have been 6 draws, Coincidence or just a niggly section of the table for them? At home against 4th , 8th and 11th, it was 0-0, 1-1, 0-0. Coincidence?
3 wins on the trot enough to assuage this coincidence above.
3-1, 3-1 and 2-1 the scorelines. This hints at over 1.5 goals if we can dismiss the anomoly of the draws when playing between 3rd and 11th in the league.
Against top 5 teams, Watford's games have comfortably been over 2.5 goals.
Away from home it's WDWWWLLLLD - 60% of QPR's home matches and 60% of Watford's away matches have been over 2.5 goals,
Most recent head to head 1-0 home win for QPR and prevoiusly 3-1 away loss at Watford

There are conflicting signals regarding the goals here.. Last head to head was 1-0, the draws between 3rd and 11th place doesn't augur well ( 2 0-0's and a 1-1 at home )
Laying Watford may appeal here as it covers the draw. QPR have the winning thread back with 3 on the trot at home after a barren patch of home draws.

1220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Shostakovich, 11/4 Rowan Spirit, 9/2 Lenjawi Pride, Restless Bay, 8/1 Cheylesmore, 14/1 Finn´s Rainbow, 25/1 Three Opera Divas,
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DIOMED VERDICT: The return to this trip will suit SHOSTAKOVICH and he can get back to winning ways.

8 down to 6 runners here and still 3 places so Rowans Spirit may be the choice here - positive run at the surface last time out but this is standard to slow today

1255 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ubenkor, 9/4 Eastern Hills, 9/2 Miss Bootylishes, 6/1 Violent Velocity, 12/1 General Tufto.
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DIOMED VERDICT: This looks between UBENKOR and Eastern Hills with preference for the former whose last piece of form just looks the stronger.

Has real standard to slow form at Southwell, this Ubenkor, which surely must count for something?

11/10 in places and all red - but only 2 places so hope of a replication of last run.

Competitive card at Cheltenham.

225 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Midnight Chase, 9/1 Palypso De Creek, Rare Bob, 10/1 Any Currency, Horner Woods, Neptune Collonges, 12/1 Faasel, From Dawn To Dusk, 14/1 Exmoor Ranger, Presenting Forever, 16/1 Forest Pennant, Knockara Beau, Knowhere, 20/1 Beat The Boys, That´s Rhythm, 40/1 Irish Raptor, 66/1 Appleaday.
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DIOMED VERDICT: Expect another bold front-running display from Midnight Chase but HORNER WOODS looks well handicapped if Nicky Henderson can get him to fulfil his potential.

Midnight Chase has won last 2 at this venue - 4 places -am I missing something or is this handicap chaser clobbered with added weight?

335 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Al Ferof, 7/2 Prince Of Pirates, 11/1 Roper, 14/1 Master Beau, Pere Blanc, Richmond, Robin De Creuse, 16/1 Ebony Diamond, 20/1 Drumlang, 25/1 Madame Jasmine, Master Milan, Thoresby, 50/1 Robin Will, 66/1 Fun Guy, Tanwood Boy, 100/1 Running Upthathill.
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DIOMED VERDICT: Assuming they jump proficiently, classy bumper performers AL FEROF and Prince Of Pirates can dominate proceedings.

A most telling market. Only 2 under 12/1 and 3 under 20/1 here. 2 bumper performers from big stables and we are quite simply betting on a hope they jump proficiently as they have only performed well in bumpers.

445 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Slatey Hen, 7/2 Arowana, Whipphound, 13/2 Tony Hollis, 10/1 Scommettitrice, 14/1 Monadreen Dancer, Sailing North, 20/1 Glenns Princess, 33/1 Una Vita Pius.
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DIOMED VERDICT: Whipphound had a few of these behind him when winning a C&D seller last month but third-placed SLATEY HEN may be able to reverse the placings.

Whipphound is the all red candidate against the obvious Hen.3/1 and all red -this is a class 6 2 year old claimer just to make my life a little easier.

Only 5 under 20/1 makes this a possible probability race.

545 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ad Vitam, 4/1 Indian Wish, 15/2 Mrs Neat, 10/1 Appyjack, Snow Trooper, 11/1 Countrywide Flame, 12/1 Seadream, 16/1 Century Dancer, Roman Strait, 20/1 Senor Sassi, 25/1 Talking Back, Titan Diamond, Torteval.
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DIOMED VERDICT: A standout horse in AD VITAM, who is 12lb well in according to the handicapper after an improved second at 80-1 in a C&D seller last time.

Price gapper in a class 6 0-60 2 year old handicap and "a standout horse" so declares Diomed , but he is now absent and it is left to Indian Wish to become the new price gapper.

900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Regent Street, 2/1 Missy O´ Gwaun, 6/1 Emperor Of The Sun, 8/1 Watch The Birdie, 10/1 Cherokee Brave, Dont Rock The Boat, 50/1 Campas Bay.

I love these races - 2 market leaders - one is a non runner and this leaves Regent Street, minus very close market rival, with a great chance of placing? And to add to the confidence, it is an Aiden O'Brien horse.


SHORTLIST

745pm - QPR v Watford - 1.78 home - Will QPR retain their unbeaten run this season? They are back in the groove at home and I could lay Watford here for a 1.20 bet.

1255 SOUTHWELL - Southwell is a bad betting course at the best of times, and more so with weather affected fibresand, but how about sticking with a horse who has actually had a run on said surface recently? Ubenkor is that horse.1.39 to place

335 CHELTENHAM - this is one of those races where you simply have to have faith in the big stables doing the business and readying their horses who have only ran on flat, jumping proficiently. Al Ferof and Prince of pirates are the 2 - the former is clear favourite at 1.15 to place

900 DUNDALK - this looks an ideal opportunity for Regent Street with nearest market rival a non runner - Highly illiquid market - Cherokee Brave is the bigger priced O'Brien runner and the booger priced horse won recently.


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Will QPR maintain their unbeaten run? That is the question. The longer the winning sequence, the nearer we are to it coming to an end, but tonight?

335 Cheltenham - I am intrigued here by the 1.15 for Al Ferof who has not run over jumps fences yet but is strongly fancied in the place only market for Paul Nicholls.

900 Dundalk - I think this Regents Secret is the one a day today - from Ballydoyle and with nearest market rival a non runner - 2 of the 6 runners are 33/1 or bigger which should leave 4 horses and 2 places only. A 50/50 race. Slight niggle that he has only had the one run





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