back-lay-trade-horses-football: 6/12

As the weather still remains poor in England, I am reluctant to trust the fibresand at Southwell, which will have been made worse by the weather and thus become slower and more burdensome for the horses. Ingleby King though comes in a race whose profile historically indicates that horses such as he ( price gapper, all red backed consistently into 5/4 and favourite in a class 6 0-60 handicap) tend to win and place with regularity.

Porto look very solid this evening. The question we need to answer is which Setabul will turn up - the one beaten 5-2 in most recent head to heads, or the one which has kept 3 clean sheets and 5 matches only 1-0 in their 11 matches this season.
If the former ( and Porto have never failed to score less than 2 in their 6 wins at home this season) then over 1.5 goals is 1.18.
Over 2.5 goals would be the value bet ( although approached as a trade is always advisable) given the asian handicap gives Setabul a 2 goal start.

Stick with the match odds though?

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Porto v Setubal - back Porto in the match odds at 1.14*****
Read above for value alternatives.

Royal Charm became a non runner yesterday.

I was very happy with analysis of Dinamo Zagreb - I pointed at the likelihood there could be a draw and Zagreb scored first before the equaliser, so well read !

6pm - Lausanne v Stade Nyonnais - 1.25 home - Swiss division 2 of little appeal .
630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Uni Cluj - 1.39 home- quick look at recent scorelines and Steaua have been less than impressive so I will give this a miss.
745pm - Porto v Setubal - 1.14 - as you should know by now, as I keep repeating myself, Porto are the form team in Europe at present. Their recent home win record was stopped by Besiktas ( and that was after beating Besiktas 3-1 away so the 1-1 draw was a less than enthusiastic Porto performance) - last 6 head to heads have seen comprehensive wins for Porto ( latest first ) 5-2, 2-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-0.
10 wins and 2 draws this season - the 2 draws have seen 2 1-1 scorelines
3,3,2,5,5,2 the home goals scored by Porto in their 6 out of 6 home wins. The draws both occured away from home.
1.14 indicates goals and a likely replication of the minimum 2 shown so far at home for Porto.
WLDLLL away for Setabul does not really relate into a shock win tonight at the runaway league leaders.
8 out of 11 matches Setabul have played have seen 5 1-0 scorelines and 3 0-0's.
So Setabul can put up some resistance. In fact in their last 4 matches, they lost 3 of those 1-0 and drew the other a seemingly anomolous 3-3. The only win and draw away came against bottom 3 sides.

Surely Porto possess too much to be held to 0-0 and are likely to win if their recent form is continued.

100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Reem Star, 11/4 Destiny Of Dreams, 3/1 Aldedash, 4/1 Palagonia, 20/1 Paradise Place, 33/1 Alantina, 50/1 Bobby Dazzler, 100/1 Jacquotte.

DIOMED VERDICT: Interesting to see what the market stays about Aldedash and Palagonia, but Destiny Of Dreams and REEM STAR may be able to put their experience to good use. The return to a mile can help Ed Dunlop's filly get off the mark.

8 runners and 3 places makes this interesting,as does the fact that, at time of writing , there are only 4 horses under 16/1. A maiden so obviously the market will be telling. Newcomer Palagonia is of interest only as it is a Mark Johnston/ Greg fairley horse.
2 newcomers are under 16/1 and could either sluce in or completely failt to give their running.

Of continuous concern to me at this period is the weather's affect on the all weather surfaces.

150 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 It´s A Mans World, 5/2 Ingleby King, 4/1 Ella Grace, 10/1 Royal Holiday, 12/1 Gold Story, Lord Lansing, 20/1 Ancient Times, 25/1 Raghdaan, 33/1 Baraconti, Northumberland, 50/1 Hopefull Blue, Sue And Sue.

DIOMED VERDICT: INGLEBY KING pulled well clear with the market leader when winning here last time and looks up to defying the penalty.

This is what I like to see in a horse, all red and totally standout out all red to boot. 5/4 and frankly, at time of writing, Ingleby King is the only horse of interest in the betting. This is a class 6 0-60 handicap and these shortlies price gappers tend to run well , but class 6's are, by their nature, inconsistent.
Only 4 under 14/1 and a course and distance winner, will the King accept today's weather and likely slower ground?

320 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Max Laurie, Upthemsteps, 5/1 Cloudy Joe, Diocles, Wait No More, 13/2 Mr Supreme, 10/1 Bunclody, 16/1 Full Ov Beans, 100/1 Flag Dancer.

DIOMED VERDICT: The form of WAIT NO MORE's Irish point win looks better now than it did at the time and he could be the answer to a tricky finale.