back-lay-trade-horses-football: 15/12

*****ONE A DAY - 300 FAIRYHOUSE - Golden Silver to place only***** -I am persuaded by the Racing Post's extreme confidence. Of course, we assume a clear round.

Albertus Pictor is far and away the best probability race of the day , perhaps the speculators amongst you can try 2nd fav to place?

A typical bumper yesterday with the final betting market not resembling the market as I saw it when I originally wrote the blog. This is always the risk.

Dunowen point drifted in the place only betting to a high of 1.53 at the off, but placed 3rd for a successful payout. I do hope some got the 1.53 for a very welcome higher payout.

And how about Bangor - I mentioned the price was suspiciously high for a team with 100% win record. And I was right. They went 1-0 down and only equalised in the 90th minute.
Reminds me of Arles v Lille when we had another price which was not in keeping with my form findings and Lille won 1-0 with, yes you guessed, a 90th minute goal.
So the old adage "if it seems to good to be true, it probably is" stands for betting as well!

1pm -OFI v Ilioupolis - 1.25 home - Greek 2nd division needs to be treated with caution. 2 1-0's in head to heads followed by Iliopolis winning 3-0 in 2010 head to heads , and OFI are 1.25 at home?? To compound my desire not to back OFI , they have lost 2 of their last 3 matches, having gone unbeaten in the previous 9. This all adds up to a bet I think I will avoid.
Home form for OFI is very solid , one loss only and recently WWWDWWDWW contrasts well with Iliopolis's away form of LLLLLLLLLL in the league.
Is this contrasting home and away form enough to salvage interest in an OFI side who has lost 2 of their last 3 matches, and were comprehensively beaten in most recent head to heads.
5pm -Seongnam Ilhwa v Inter - 1.38 away - yes the Inter they are talking about here are Inter Milan! Another Fifa World Club Championship and the 1.25 shot yesterday was soundly beaten. Quite simply these types of one off matches can hold up all sorts of surprises. Of course we know Inter Milan very well but what of Seongnam. They are a South Korean League side and we saw that the Koreans ( think Ji Sung Park) are basically 10 headless chickens and a goalkeeper. They all run on duracell batteries.
Another question mark over the team selection from The Fat Spanish Waiter. How seriously are they taking this competition?
6pm -Dinamo Kiev v Sheriff Tiraspol - 1.28 home - Europa League and some matches, such as Liverpool's, are effectively dead rubbers for the hosts. I need to see where Kiev lie as far as must win/dead rubber is concerned. From the Europa League website
"Group E
FC Dynamo Kyiv and FC BATE Borisov have confirmed their qualification but first place is undecided. With the top two tied on ten points and Dynamo leading via their head-to-head superiority, the Ukrainian team need only match BATE's result at AZ Alkmaar when they host FC Sheriff."
So, there we have it , and I hope I have shown in the past that backing teams with effectively nothing invested in the result does not work.
On 30th September, Sheriff beat Kiev 2-0 to make this game potentially missable.
Why the short price for Kiev? Both teams have only lost 1 in their last 12 matches in all competitions so are in good domestic form. The 2-0 scoreline when the teams met included a "fortunate" opener and a penalty.
Kiev , it can be argued, may have the motivation of finishing in top spot, although they are guaranteed 2nd spot. But is there anything to be gained by finishing top? Sheriff have lost 3-1 and 2-1 away in the Europa League so far. Having scored on both occasions and conceded on both occasions, an over 1.5 goals bet looks obvious?
805pm - Napoli v Steaua Bucharest - 1.4 home - we go from a team who kind of- sort of - maybe need a win ( Kiev) to a Napoli side who need a win, full stop. Now that's what I mean by motivation. They must win or else.

From the Europa League website.

SSC Napoli must produce a "perfect" performance if they are to overcome FC Steaua Bucureşti in a match they must win if they are to reach the UEFA Europa League round of 32.

That is the view of their coach, Walter Mazzarri, whose team are third in Group K, two points below Steaua, for whom a draw will suffice. Home advantage is certainly encouraging − their visitors have not won on the road in Europe in six games − yet with victory the only thing which will save the Partenopei from elimination, Mazzari knows his charges must produce something special.

"We're playing at San Paolo Stadium and this is a good thing for us, but we mustn't forget that Steaua can progress with two results while Napoli must win − we have to play the perfect match," said the 49-year-old.

Previous head to head saw a 3-3 with Steaua 3-0 up by half time only to capitulate.

4-1 loss to Liverpool and 1-1 draw with Utrecht perhaps underlines Steaua's weaknesses. can Napoli exploit this?

Steaua are equally as motivated to hang on to 2nd place. A draw will suffice , although if Utrecht beat Liverpool at Anfield and Steaua draw, this will not be enough. Will a neutral goals bet be the best way to go here with both sides really needing the win to secure 2nd place?

805pm - Porto v CSKA Sofia - 1.26 home - top v bottom in group L and the last time Porto did not need to win, they threw away a 100% home win record by drawing against Besiktas. Clearly dominant in group L, and already through with a comfortable 13 points, and top and are playing a CSKA Sofia side who are eliminated.

Interesting facts from the Europa League website

Team facts
• CSKA Sofia have yet to score in the first half of a Group L game, with all three of their goals thus far coming after the break.

• Porto's Falcao is the UEFA Europa League group stage's top scorer with seven goals, leaving him two ahead of PFC CSKA Moskva's Tomáš Necid and AC Sparta Praha's Wilfried Bony.

If Porto can score in the first half, they look tradeable here. Remember this is a dead rubber for Porto so trading perhaps better advised.
1-0 in head to heads . We will be hoping here on a Porto side slightly bouyed by playing at home against a CSKA side who have nothing, and will hopefully play with such an attitude tonight.

21 wins and 3 draws in Porto's last 24 matches in all competitions is breathtaking.

When priced as low as 1.26 , Porto usually oblige, but I must reiterate that this is not a must win for Porto, but we may make an exception as this is a nothing game for eliminated CSKA
1-0 loss to Besiktas away and 1-2 win over Rapid Wien for CSKA away in the Europa League

115 BANGOR ON DEE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Gilsland, 4/1 Incentivise, 11/2 Volcanic Rock, 8/1 Ayemdee, 10/1 Pennek, 10/1 Petite Margot, 12/1 Fine By Me, 12/1 Glebehall Bay, 12/1 Silver Bay, 16/1 Shrewd Investor, 25/1 September Moon.

GILSLAND (nap) is progressing nicely, looks well worth a try at this trip on breeding and represents a trainer who has won two of the last three runnings of this contest.[Steven Boow]

Gilsland is of interest because the trainer seems to target this race, having won it on 2 of the last 3 runnings. McCain jr and Maguire are a great combo.This looks a good quality handicap chase though.

150 BANGOR ON DEE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 High Benefit, 11/4 Backspin, 13/2 Attaglance, 13/2 Our Mick, 8/1 Flinty Bay, 14/1 Renard D´irlande, 20/1 Loch Ba, 20/1 The Old Buccaneer, 25/1 Sara´s Smile, 25/1 Sivola De Sivola, 25/1 Takamaru, 33/1 Briefcase, 33/1 Copsehill Girl, 33/1 Lucky Sunny, 66/1 Gentle Bob, 100/1 Aitch Factor.

This race has been won by some classy sorts in recent years including Peddlers Cross and My Way De Solzen. There are a few runners with some potential in this year´s renewal, notably HIGH BENEFIT who has already shown twice that she can do it against the boys and looks capable of defying a penalty. Punchestown bumper winner Backspin is an intriguing contender on his debut for Jonjo O´Neill.

At present there are only 4 horses under 14/1 with High Benefit and Backspin the 2 horses who cannot be split at the head of the betting - both representatives of big stable/jockey combos.

1150 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Toner D´oudairies, 7/2 Sailors Warn, 4/1 Days Ahead, 7/1 Ainm Spartacus, 8/1 Fearless Falcon, 10/1 Kalann, 14/1 Captains Dilemma, 25/1 Walden Prince, 33/1 Cuckoo Hill.

There should be plenty of improvement to come from Sailors Warn on his second run over hurdles, but if TONER D´OUDAIRIES can sustain the progress that he made from his debut to his convincing win at Down Royal he will take beating, Days Ahead is dependable and should be able to reach the money again. [Alan Sweetman]

Soft ground at Fairyhouse today and Toner D'oudairies is currently 5/4 favourite for Davey russell and Gordon Elliott, who, as well as Perth, loves racing in Ireland. "jumping left plenty to be desired" - hmmm!!

1220 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Zaidpour, 9/2 Perfect Smile, 5/1 Carloswayback, 8/1 The Shepherd King, 10/1 Pineau De Re, 20/1 Mount Helicon.

French import ZAIDPOUR quite simply toyed with the opposition on his hurdling debut over 2m4f at Punchestown, and the drop back to 2m shouldn't inconvenience him. Limerick winner Carloswayback may give the selection most to do. [Brian Fleming]

Emphasis on speed and accurate jumping now for Zaidpour dropping markedly in trip in this Grade 1 6 horses and 2 places available

" trainer holds him in high regard" and when Willie Mullins likes a horse, you tend to sit up and take note. Current price gap as I write is evens - - - - -- 5/1

12 length winner on debut - one of the stable stars and perhaps worth the punt despite the 2 places and drop in trip?

1250 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Solwhit, 5/2 Hurricane Fly, 10/1 Voler La Vedette, 12/1 Oscar Dan Dan, 14/1 Donnas Palm, 16/1 Summit Meeting, 20/1 Jumbo Rio, 20/1 Mourad, 25/1 Aitmatov, 33/1 Powerstation, 50/1 On The Way Out.

SOLWHIT looked as good as ever on his winning return at Punchestown and the Charles Byrnes-trained six-time Grade 1 winner looks the one again stepping up to this longer journey. Hurricane Fly, rated one pound superior, looks the obvious threat on his first run since getting the better of the selection at Punchestown in April, while the mare Voler La Vedette is capable of a big run going back up in trip this afternoon. [Brian Fleming]

Only 3 horses under 14/1 here and Solwhit and Hurricane Fly set to dominate?

155 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tranquil Sea, 7/2 Cooldine, 6/1 J´y Vole, 8/1 Glencove Marina, 8/1 Roberto Goldback, 16/1 Vic Venturi, 20/1 Mossbank, 25/1 Trafford Lad, 33/1 Coolcashin.

While J'y Vole confirmed herself as up to this class last season, lack of race-fitness may just count against her and with that in mind TRANQUIL SEA is the preferred choice. He remains capable of making the breakthrough at this level and this sort of race gives him the best chance of doing so. [Justin O'Hanlon]

5 horses only under 20/1 here and another race where we look to the market leaders?
Tranqui Sea is " a very high class performer", so says Spotlight.

230 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mikael D´haguenet, 9/2 Realt Dubh, 5/1 Jessies Dream, 7/1 Head Of The Posse, 10/1 Berties Dream, 12/1 Bob Lingo, 12/1 Bostons Angel, 20/1 Lucky William, 20/1 Quito De La Roque, 50/1 Gold Cygnet.

No easy task here for former star novice MIKAEL D´HAGUENET, but reports of his schooling have been sufficiently positive to suggest that he can account for these rivals, of whom Galway winner Jessies Dream appeals as the most likely danger. [Brian Fleming]

The quite superb card continues here but this is a novices chase. Mikael is strong market leader but has not run over a chase fence in public and this must be accounted for. A race where only 5 runners are under 20/1 , perhaps we can whittle the field down for those fighting for the places.

300 FAIRYHOUSE

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Golden Silver, 7/1 Osana, 8/1 Scotsirish, 10/1 Let Yourself Go, 10/1 Zaarito, 12/1 Carthalawn, 12/1 Kempes, 50/1 Royal Choice.

Despite his apparent disliking for Cheltenham, GOLDEN SILVER is one of the leading two-mile chasers in the business and should be too good for this opposition. Stable companion Scotsirish and Navan third Carthalawn look to be the next most viable candidates. [Justin O'Hanlon]

8 runners and 3 places here and " should be too good for this opposition"
Look at the price gap. Note that this is the smallest field which will pay out 3 places and read the confidence of Spotlight for Golden Silver
"the top-rated by a considerable margin and very hard to oppose. "
Course and Distance winner and only 38 days since last run.
Townend/Mullins set for a good day?

455 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Yaseer, 7/2 Rasheed, 5/1 Silenzio, 7/1 Ilissos, 7/1 School For Scandal, 10/1 Area Fifty One, 10/1 Energizing, 33/1 Holcombe Boy, 66/1 Laser Blazer, 66/1 Star Danser.

As usual the market should provide the best clues regarding the newcomers but this may be best left to YASEER, who shaped with a degree of promise when chasing home a potentially very smart sort on his debut at Newbury (form franked) and who should be all the better for that experience. [Richard Young]

6/4 and one of only 3 under 10/1 here, can we trust Yaseer on this surface?

325 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Albertus Pictor, 9/2 Green Wadi, 6/1 Archie Rice, 7/1 Robby Bobby, 12/1 Rosy Dawn, 14/1 Lord Chancellor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should go to ALBERTUS PICTOR, who looks a typical Sir Mark Prescott improver. He's bred to be smart and seems sure to step up on the form he showed when grinding out a 1m2f maiden win here last month. Robby Bobby can chase him home.[Ron Wood]

2 non runners makes this a 6 runner race with hopefully 3 places.

AS this now becomes a 50/50 race with 6 horses and 3 places and 2 clear outsiders, Albertus Pictor looks good.

SHORTLIST