Thursday 6 August 2009

6/8

Did anyone stay up til 330am for the Barca v Seattle match. If so, then the sight of Lionel Messi in the line up must have sounded the beginning of Xmas! 1.38 , Messi, against a bunch of coffee drinkers whose best player is Lundberg - OH HAPPY DAYS. Forget laying Seattle, get on Barca.
result - 4-0 -happy days
Elsewhere Lady Chapparal won with ease and La Soie came 2nd . The gamble on Alkahan proved worth following as he placed at 1.47

Seeing as it's early ,let's start with he footy again today.
Lille v Sevejno -1.17 to win for this solid French side in the Europa Cup
Galatasary are 1.23 to win against Maccabi Netanya
Honved v Fenerbahche 1.73 for Fener to win and Honved 4.7 to lay
Hamburg 1.19 a home to Randers
Fulham 1.14 at home to Ventra
The problem with Hamburg and Fulham is that they have already won the 1st legs convincingly. Still, I suppose the threat of away goals should ensure victory at hom

210 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Diamond Duchess, 7/2 Brunette, 4/1 Music Of The Moor, 11/2 Land Of Plenty, 14/1 Mark Anthony, 16/1 Young Firth, 25/1 Big Buzz, Smog, 40/1 Storm Command.

DIOMED VERDICT: MUSIC OF THE MOOR comes from races which have worked out well and may be good enough.

ONLY 4 UNDER 14/1 here should be the ones to concentrate on, bar any late movers in this maiden. Brunette has 2 second places UPDATE - Diamond now the slight favourite 1.36 and 1.57 the front 2 to place

220 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Serhaal, 11/8 Excellent Guest, 6/1 Firefly Mustique, 20/1 Rock Of Eire, 33/1 Securitisation.

DIOMED VERDICT: EXCELLENT GUEST boasts the form and experience to get the job done at this level.

4 horses now and 1 25/1 shot, 1 9/1 shot . Seerhall and Excellent should be the 2 to focus on, one has experience, the other is an interesting debutant. 1.25 and 1.14 the front 2 - Excellent guest under ryan Moore is the better fancied and the only remaining horse who has experience

240 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dark Eyes, 7/4 Farmers Wish, 8/1 Catbells, 20/1 Ed´s A Red.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for DARK EYES to follow up her debut success.

Another race like the first, should hopefully be a 2 horse affair, 3 at a stretch with eD'S A RED A CLEAR OUTSIDER WITH A 7 LB CLAIMING JOCKEY UPDATE - Catbells the market mover really throws a spanner in the works - now 3/1 and threatening favouratism makes this a no bet race unless Ed's a Red could be entertained as a place lay? But £2 at 18 to lay is poor

350 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Surprise Party, 5/1 Bombina, Miss Sophisticat, 6/1 Act Green, 8/1 Ballet Dancer, Evening Sunset, 10/1 Chadwell Spring, 16/1 Viva La Vida, 20/1 Tamarah.

DIOMED VERDICT: SURPRISE PARTY has looked progressive this summer and can follow up her recent C&D success.

7/4 favourite and the hint of a price gapper here - class 5 0-75 handicap 1.41 to place

420 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Singora Lady, 9/2 Inch Lodge, 7/1 King Of Connacht, 9/1 King´s Ransom, 10/1 General Tufto, Sitwell, 12/1 Crystal Feather, 14/1 Mick Is Back, Noble Dictator, 20/1 Applesnap, Forced Opinion, 33/1 Tar.

DIOMED VERDICT: SINGORA LADY (nap) is improving all the time and can follow up her recent win at Redcar.

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap. Ryan Moore in the plate is a very pleasing site - 13/8 - - - - - 6/1 in the live market. 1.42 to place
Forced opinion is a huge mover here into 6/1

540 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Beethoven, 3/1 Clashnacree, 9/2 Rockie Bright, 6/1 Neon Tiger, 7/1 Jade Jewel, 10/1 Del Mar, Rock Jock, 12/1 Bewitched, Moonreach, 14/1 Mianach, 16/1 Motto Bello, 20/1 Blast.

Highly tried Ballydoyle maiden now a big price gapper 4/5 - - - 6/1. Looks to have an outstanding opportunity here under Number 1 Murtagh 1.16 to place in an illiquid market. Clashnacree is also fancied

540 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Waveband, 5/1 Admirable Duchess, Ruthie Babe, 11/2 Excellent Day, 15/2 Memory And Magic, 8/1 La Fortunata, 10/1 Tarita, 16/1 More Lashes, 40/1 Hope´N´Reason, 50/1 Joan´s Legacy.

DIOMED VERDICT: WAVEBAND can make the most of her favoured rail draw and is likely to prove hard to beat.

Frm of 432 is very progressive. 1.28 to place and solid at 5/4 in places

635 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Marine Spirit, 11/4 Subtefuge, 11/2 Love Match, 15/2 Cuts Both Ways, 17/2 Hold Your Colour, 12/1 Persian Heroine, 14/1 Ellen Vannin, 20/1 I Am That, 25/1 Generoso.

DIOMED VERDICT: MARINE SPIRIT sets a reasonable standard on his latest third to two decent types at Newmarket and may be able to make previous experience count, though Subtefuge is a likely-looking newcomer who needs monitoring very closely in the betting.

Dettori on the Godolphin market leader - has had 2 runs in this maiden race - a race full of debutants so consultation of the market nearer race time is suggested - only 3 under 10/1 and the 2 who are NOT debutants are the 2 market leaders Marine and Love match
1.16 Marine to place

645 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 High Twelve, 5/1 Corsica, 8/1 Valiant Knight, 10/1 Guidecca Ten, Jibrrya, 100/1 Set In Ice.

DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should be helpful with regard to the newcomers but it is difficult to get away from HIGH TWELVE after his promising debut here.

Now 1/3 the fav - a strong signal, but a race with a few debutants and a fav with only the one run - 1.09 to place for this heavily backed market leader

650 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Glenstal Abbey, 100/30 Fly The Fairway, 5/1 Berties Dream, 7/1 Hopeful Venture, 16/1 Golden Sedge, Olifan D´Oudairies, 25/1 He´s Up The Road.

AP McCoy in Sligo - a tip in itself? 1.28 to place

655 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Mister Hughie, 7/2 True Red, 5/1 Lady Avon, 11/2 Aegean Destiny, 7/1 Xaara Star, 8/1 That´Lldonowthen, 20/1 Bury St Edmunds, 33/1 Miss Roma.

DIOMED VERDICT: The achievements of MISTER HUGHIE set a decent standard in this company.

Price gapper in the live market but a 5 furlong 2 year old seller - now 5/6 and strongly fancied but we really should take account of the race type - 1.18 to place

705 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Namu, 7/2 Dualagi, 9/2 Efisio Princess, 9/1 Foxtrot Alpha, Rhapsilian, 10/1 Ishibee, 14/1 Black Moma, 20/1 Cocktail Party, Mount Ella.

DIOMED VERDICT: NAMU remains feasibly weighted despite a 6lb rise for her win at Brighton last time and looks the one to beat.

2nd fav a non runner could open things up to the fav, but we must note the race time and refer to the live market nearer the race time 1.55 to place in a 3 the place race does not instill much confidence

710 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Lillie Langtry, 100/30 Devoted To You, 11/2 Alshahbaa, 6/1 Elusive Galaxy, 15/2 Gold Bubbles, 10/1 Famous.

3 O'Brien horses in this 6 runner field, and as happened the other day, the outsider won.
Jockey bookings indicate Lillie Langtry is the fancy ( and is a price gapper) 1.21 to place for Lilly in this GRoup 2 - concern that the Ballydoyle reps are all good and may accidentally push Lilly out of the 2 places necessary to collect
750 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Capall Eile, 11/4 Definitive Edge, 5/1 Shouldertoshoulder, 6/1 Perlogan, 8/1 Back And Firth, 12/1 New Town Bay, 20/1 Born With A Gift, 25/1 Dromore Express, Willies Girl, 33/1 Dark Daisy, Fiona Girl, Regina Lo, Temair, 50/1 Glencarrigbrook, Kizmehoney, 66/1 Johnyihardlyknewya,

Definitive edge 7/4 for Walsh/Mullins 1.26 to place but this price is very illiquid

SHORTLIST
Lille at 1.17 look superb against Sevejno - great French season last season and should consolidate tonight with an easy home win - 2-0 up already - we face the concern that there may be a taking-the-foot-off-the gas scenario with Lille, Fulham and Hamburg all at home on the back of very good away wins which have all but sealed net rouond qualification
Fulham under Woy look well worth backing this evening at home at Craven Cottage taking a 3-0 advantage.

220 YArmouth -Excellent guest has the advantage of experience here and the advantage of Ryan Moore -a 4 HORSE race in the offing with 2 at 9/1 and 25/1. Excellent would be my preference amongst the 2 market leaders

540 Leopardstown - Beethoven is back in maiden company and really should place at the very least here under Johnny Murtagh at 1.16


540 SANDOWN - Waveband has the look of a progressive type about him in this maiden and is worthy of consideration for a place at 1.28

645 SANDOWN - There is no getting away from the massive contraction in price for High Twelve into 1/3, confidence in placing mirrored by the 1.09 quote at present - 2 places though

ONE A DAY

I am really taken by Fulham at 1.14 at home and in Europe for the first time in ages and they will be my choice in the match odds market
From a horse racing perspective, Excellent Guest in the 220 Yarmouth seems to have a lot of plusses - Ryan Moore - seemingly 1 to beat to place - experience

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