Wednesday 19 August 2009

19/8 UPDATE

145 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Class Is Class, 9/2 Whispering Gallery, 9/1 Yes Mr President, 10/1 Coin Of The Realm, Seeking The Buck, 12/1 Resplendent Light, 14/1 Boz, Montbretia, 20/1 Topolski, 25/1 Dazzling Light, Sahrati, 33/1 Amanda Carter, Bucked Off, Presbyterian Nun, 40/1 Strategic Mount.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 1m4f will suit CLASS IS CLASS (nap), whose Newmarket form has been well advertised.

Now 2/1 this Ryan Moore ridden horse, but again a tough old contest 1.5 to place

250 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Orpen Grey, 5/2 Monsieur Chevalier, 3/1 Showcasing, 15/2 Corporal Maddox, 12/1 Mr David, Taajub, 40/1 Falasteen, 50/1 Reignier.

DIOMED VERDICT: ORPEN GREY may have enough in reserve to fend off Monsieur Chevalier and Showcasing.

Monsieur has the assistance of Richard Hughes, now down to 7 runners and 3 places, surely this horse will be competitive
UPDATE - 6 runners and 3 places now - Showcasing is the one for money at the moment - 1.33 with Monsieur at 1.35
a 50/50 race this one

315 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Turnkey, 11/4 Steelcut, 9/2 Charles Parnell, 13/2 Finsbury, 10/1 Sunley Sovereign, 16/1 Boss Hog, 25/1 Strabinios King, 33/1 Actabou, 100/1 Ducal Regancy Duke.

DIOMED VERDICT: Steelcut and TURNKEY (nap) have an equal chance on adjusted BHA ratings but the latter looks a safer proposition given the conditions.

4th fav a non runner here makes life easier for the market principles in a race where only 4 are under 25/1 Turnkey is now evens and strengthening at the head of the market - this is a claimer but can we rely on the 25/1 shots running like 25/1 shots - if so then this is a great probability bet 1.19 to place

325 YORK
CAn't get the betting forecast up alas but Changingoftheguard is 5/2 - - - - - 7/1 and a Ballydoyle price gapper in a 20 runner ( and 4 places) handicap
UPDATE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Changingoftheguard, 13/2 Red Merlin, 8/1 Warringah, 10/1 Precision Break, 14/1 Manyriverstocross, 16/1 Desert Sea, Deutschland, Hits Only Vic, 20/1 Ajaan, Magicalmysterytour, 25/1 Ladies Best, Sesenta, The Betchworth Kid, 33/1 Camps Bay, Dansili Dancer, Record Breaker, Siberian Tiger, Som Tala, 40/1 Nanton, Waldvogel,

DIOMED VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien has done well with the handful of 3yos he has run in this race and Leger entry CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD looks sure to make a bold bid over a trip that will suit.

Now threatening at 2/1 , 1.62 with 4 places will be good for those seeking a target profit per day, not so much a level stakes bet


415 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Graceful Descent, 7/4 Terminate, 25/1 Cecina Marina, Dance Sauvage.

DIOMED VERDICT: Graceful Descent has plenty in her favour and is taken to notch her first win since 2007.

Fav now 4/11 i n what seems a 2 horse race, but a claimer and remember what I said recently " 3 places good, 2 places bad!!"1.07 to place , 1.35 to win - perhaps an in running bet to get out at 1.20?

525 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Helieorbea, 5/2 Ultimate Respect, 13/2 Silk Gallery, 17/2 Duke Of Bothwell, 20/1 Yes Please, 33/1 Mister Biscuit, Our Girl Ally, 50/1 Becky Quick.

DIOMED VERDICT: HELIEORBEA sets a clear standard on his latest close second in a 7f Redcar maiden, though the forecast easier ground and the presence of a possible improver in Ultimate Respect mean that confidence is not sky-high

Consistent place form in maiden company and looks a 4 horse race if we can confidently discount those at 20/1 or bigger 1.22 to place

FOOTBALL
Mention must be made of FC Opa playing FC Santa Claus -Opa are 1.14 to win, but won't get any presents if they do win.
FC Santa Claus have 2 towering elves at the back, and a hefty rotund white bearded lad in goal who, I believe, Barcelona had their eye on.
Dortmund take on Real Madrid in a friendly and we should see a goal or 2 surely?Benzema o score anytime?
Man Utd are 1.37 to beat Burnley at their place, and even with the injury concerns, they should oblige
Liverpool are 1.29 to beat Stoke who got on over on them last season - surely they MUST win having already lost ground after the first match
Barcelona face Man City in a wierd friendly what with he latter's season having already started - so perhaps a weakened City team and a chance for Barca to win?

ONE A DAY
Must be Man Utd at 1.37 to win ( you can trade ot if they make the breakthrough 1st_ - some great horse prospects today with 250 YORK, 315 CARLISLE , 415 HAMILTON (follow the market on the fav despite race type?)
Liverpool should oblige today but I fancy Man Utd at a better price
Good luck with your choices

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