Tuesday 11 August 2009

11/8 UPDATE

Great analysis yesterday of the 245 Southwell - not only did I give you the placer in Duster ,I also gave you 7/1 winner Royal Holiday - can't be bad!
Evening bets were outstanding and all won.

Immediately today there seems to be a standout short price bet in Andy Murray at 1.1 in the Canadian Tennis - considering he is 7/2 2nd fav for the title, then today should be a formality and worthy of support

215 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Stumped, 4/1 Twill, 11/2 Soviet Sceptre, 10/1 Top Trees, 12/1 Bet Noir, 16/1 Galilean, 20/1 Cavalry Twill, Miss Skippy, 25/1 Play A Cord, 40/1 All To Prove, 50/1 Missie Geore, Zaydar, 66/1 Cat Six, Cover Drive, Forest Lodge.

DIOMED VERDICT: STUMPED has the form to win with Twill a possible threat.

Only 4 under 20/1 here indicate dead wood. Fav has not been out of first 2 in last 3 races and is down to selling hurdle grade.UPDATE - PLAY A CORD IS A POTENTIAL MARKET MOVER LEAVING 5 UNDER 20/1 HERE 1.32 to place Stumped

230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mt Kintyre, 2/1 Deuce, 7/1 Sheila´s Castle, 17/2 Love Call, 16/1 Dramatic Jewel, 20/1 Awani, 33/1 My Les, 40/1 Julie Mill, 66/1 Red Army Commander.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mt Kintyre has leading claims but is quirky and the safer option may be DEUCE, who went close in 1m4f AW claimer last time.

WHy is Awani 7/1 at present? Maiden race again and a potential gamble like Royal Holiday yesterday. Inspite of this, live market indicates a 2 horse race 1.22 to place

245 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Berkeley Court, 7/1 Cartier Opera, 10/1 Post It, 12/1 Cloonavery, Scotch Corner, 16/1 Misamon, 20/1 Another Present, Clovis, Ninety Nine Looks, Rookery Lad, 25/1 Kenwyn, Secret Cavern, Tiger Moss, 40/1 Shrewd Dude, 50/1 Jethro Wheeler, 66/1 Send For Tim.
DIOMED VERDICT: BERKELEY COURT won easily here last week and can follow up over a much shorter trip.

Price gapper here dropping in trip by a mile or so, -has Richard Johnson on board which is a positive.On a hatrick here- 4 places - 1.2 to place

330 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tia Juana, 3/1 Shimmering Moment, 5/1 Transvaal Sky, 11/2 Amtaar, 6/1 La Ville Lumiere, 11/1 Decency, 28/1 Delta Sky, 33/1 Dancealot Lady,

DIOMED VERDICT: TIA JUANA could be another 2yo debut winner for a yard in scintillating form. The main danger is Group 1 entered newcomer Shimmering Moment.

Key word here is " COULD BE"
We simply don't know how good, or otherwise this Godolphin 2 year old is -Frankie on board and odds on at present give clues? 1.35 to place

445 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cooksgrove Lady, 3/1 Walamo, 7/2 Kilrogan, 4/1 Mission Control, 40/1 William Weazle, 50/1 Heels Supreme, Lord Of Sehayl, Occasionally Yours, 66/1 Madame Jete.

DIOMED VERDICT: WALAMO (nap) has the form to win if back to his best after a break.

Highly significant non runner in Walamo leaves 3 under 33/1 Cooksgrove lady is due a loss as the weight piles up, so Mission Control under Richard Johnson looks the beneficiary? 1.11 , 1.18 (mission), 1.33 (kilrogan)

610 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Birkside, 4/1 Graycliffe, 9/2 Regent´s Secret, 6/1 Swift Sailing, 7/1 Run Free, 16/1 Wyn Dixie, 33/1 Por Chablis,

DIOMED VERDICT: BIRKSIDE faces his easiest open yet since joining this yard and should make no mistake.

Price gapper here - might only be 2 places alas - 2 outsiders should reduce the competitive field - middle distance claimers are not perhaps the best race types 1.38 to place

740 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ingleby Star, 9/4 Obe Gold, 3/1 Raccoon, 5/1 Fivefootnumberone, 14/1 Blazing Heights,

DIOMED VERDICT: Quite a tight heat but INGLEBY STAR is hard to pass over in his current form.

2 non runners include original 2nd fav could bring us a probability race here? 1.32 ingleby to place in a 50/50 race

840 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ms Sophie Eleanor, 15/8 Cils Blancs, 4/1 Dark Moment, 14/1 Hindford Oak Sioux, 16/1 Gems Star, 25/1 Hosanna, Meydan Style, 33/1 More Tea Vicar,

DIOMED VERDICT: MS SOPHIE ELEANOR and Cils Blancs are interesting fillies at this level, both making their handicap debuts.

Only 4 under 20/1 here should be the ones to concentrate on here in this class 6 handicap - 1.3 , 1.27 the front 2 to place

FOOTBALL
19:45 Sheffield United vs Port Vale 4/11
Blades are at home and fancied - yes Carling Cup but still....
19:45 Glentoran vs Ballymoney 1/12
Co Antrim shield -
International week means some teams will be without many first team players making the games difficult to guage
West Brom / Reading / Ipswich are 3 such teams

ONE A DAY
Well, Berkely Court is shortlisted and has 4 places and Richard johnson's assistance and looks solid,
the 345 Newton Abbott has to enter the equation here today given the significant non runner and perhaps Mission Control at 1.18 for me here under Johnson instead of a 7 lb claiming jockey on Cooksgrove Lady
My one a day ultra safe bet would be Andy Murray in the Rogers cup at 1.09 currently. I would not put you off the 2 mentioned as they look goos at better prices and I may well get involved in these with another account other than my one a day account but for one a day, take my medicine with Ruby Murray

Only

No comments: