Saturday, 7 June 2008

7/6

A day which could have been made much better had the Godolphin 3rd string won and not placed 2nd by a head at 14/1. Again Aiden O'Brien surprised with a 2nd place at 25/1 with Moonstone in a race where none of the O'brien pricipals performed

CURRAGH
Carrying on the IRish theme Sawtooth Mountain in the 530 - but this is a maiden
700
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Teacht An Earraig, 7/2 Mores Wells, Winchester, 6/1 Timari, 8/1 Arch Rebel, Lisvale, 12/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Hindu Kush, 20/1 Reformist, Soinlovewithyou.
Hindu Kush, Reformist, William Hogarth, Reformist, Soinlovewithyou. I'll chance all each way in the hope for a surprise

830 - Streetstyle

305 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fragrancy, 100/30 Candy Mountain, 7/1 Royal Fantasy, 15/2 Ronaldsay, 8/1 Fongs Gazelle, Lisathedaddy, 12/1 Free Offer, Montrachet .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Improving FRAGRANCY (nap) ran a blinder in defeat at Redcar and, so long as the ground remains suitably lively, she should take some beating. Lisathedaddy is back on a mark she can exploit but Candy Mountain could be the fly in the ointment if she takes to her first-time visor

Fragrancy out - does this open the race up for Candy Mountain?

240 EPSOM
Bahia Breeze has Smullen on board

400
THe Derby contains a wealth of O'Brien entries, and as with Soldier of Fortune's victory with Macarthur in 3rd at 12/1, some horses will be sacrificed as pace setters
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Casual Conquest, 9/2 Curtain Call, 5/1 New Approach, 6/1 Tartan Bearer, 8/1 Doctor Fremantle, 10/1 Tajaaweed, 14/1 King Of Rome, 16/1 Frozen Fire, 20/1 Kandahar Run, Rio De La Plata, 40/1 Alessandro Volta, Washington Irving, 150/1 Bouguereau, 200/1 Alan Devonshire, 500/1 Bashkirov, Maidstone Mixture,

Casual Conquest for Weld, Washington Irving, Alessandro Volta, Bashkirov, Frozen Fire and King of Rome represent Aiden O'Brien.
Bashkiriv is likely to be a spoiler, with all other entries appearing priced to hold chances. Again, each way in the hope for a shock - it's a competitive field as the 4/1 fav implies without Bashkirov

It was interesting to hear Jonny Murtagh so bullish about all the BAllydoyle entries indicating his ride is a personal choice rather than being the outright best Ballydoyle representative

FOOTY
Euros begin and the Swiss were solid in the World Cup - not losing BUT not progressing! Correct score dutch looks worth entertaining - half time score 0-0 at 2.4, 1-0 and 0-1 around 5 - back all 3 with slight loss on the 0-0
Lay the draw in the 2nd half at 2.48 may be worth a punt if a draw athalf time

Under 2.5 goals is 1.55 and looks eminently tradeable - perhaps even under 1.5 goals at 2.62

I'm going to chance 1-0,1-1,2-0,2-1 in the Portugal match, the assumption being the Portugeuse should win

Ronny and Nuno Gomes can both be backed to be first goalscorers at 6.8 and 9.4

Portugal look reasonable at 8/11 to beat to back and lay off if they first.

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