What can I say about Spain , except why didn't I have a lumpy bet at 1.75? In retrospect the odds were MASSIVE considering the opposition. Superb toi see the 2-0 pop home at 12's at half time ( take into account the other 2 dutches and it's about 9/1 -10/1)
Still not sure whether halftime full time team x/team x and to win both halves team x are the same bet - surely they are ? If so, watch out for market discrepancies which allow for a free bet effectively!
220 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Just The Lady, 3/1 Madame Jourdain, 10/1 Kapowee, 14/1 Petite Denise, 20/1 Chipolini, Coup De Feu, 25/1 Transformation, 33/1 Under The Table .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to concern JUST THE LADY and Madame Jourdain. Preference is for the former, who didn't have to improve to win a Polytrack seller with plenty in hand last time and she won't have to better that effort to follow up returned to turf on this first start for her in-form yard |
Coup de feu a newcomer and currently 16/1 - a very tenuous 16/1 system candidate given this is only a small price discrepancy but worth consideration each way in this maiden
300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 African Pursuits, 4/1 Ledgerwood, 6/1 Hester Brook, Prince Des Neiges, 7/1 Sweet World, 16/1 Rosy Dawn, 25/1 Poppy Red, 33/1 Persian Fox, 50/1 Veras Joy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AFRICAN PURSUITS has shown promise in stronger company and can exploit this drop in grade. Ledgerwood can fill a minor placing.[ |
African Pursuits is now evens and represents a decent enough chance although race type is unappealing
810 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 La Vecchia Scuola, 5/1 Ella, 7/1 Akarem, Tifernati, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Lochiel, 12/1 Sin City, 14/1 Maneki Neko, Nero West, 16/1 Gordonsville, Whispering Death, 33/1 Regent´s Secret ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A seriously competitive staying event for the grade and one that should suit the stayers with a strong pace seemingly assured. ELLA looks another progressive handicapper for Alan Swinbank to go to war with and, although she did it from the front at Pontefract, there's a good chance she'll have a chance to settle better here with so much pace on up front. The admirable La Vecchia Scuola shouldn't be far away once again. "seriously competitive" - why not lay the shortest priced horse in the field? - probably La Vecchia Scuola 655 KEMPTON Calahonda for a place looks interesting - albeit at a short price LEOPARDSTOWN 600 - Rare Ransomn - another maiden though and I don't like these as it's a lottery MAidens and handicaps at Nottingham FOOTY Difficult set of matches this evening - The Czechs play Portugal and knee jerk reaction is to favour Portugal. Perhaps I'll lay the Czechs this evening or back Portugal draw no bet (the bookie way of laying the opposition) Goals wise - difficult to evaluate - overs is realistic but then so is unders given the lack of Czech attacking prowess First goalscorer -Ronny and Gomez again -a post width away last time. Watch out for Pepe at big odds , or has he scored his defender's goal? Again Portugal to win both halves currently 4.6 , but Portugal to win half time/full time , to lay, is 3.3. Again, these are the same markets aren't they? Swiss v Turkey is very difficult - why can't they all be SPain at 4/6 ! Bad blood between these 2 after major handbags in the tunnel last time they met. Likely to be a cagey affair and the possibility again for under 2.5 goals as the Swiss are calling this their "final" - don't win Boys and you're out (ish!) Without Frei, the Toblerone boys don't have any real forward options. 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1 could be a good correct scopre dutch, and half time/full time 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 will produce small loss on 0-0 Difficult footy to evaluate today - no clearcut " Spain to win" type bet today. |
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