12/6

Coup de feu down to 12/1 then withdrawn, African Pursuits won at 4/5 SP, the market move, albeit slight, was obviously accurate. THe clue was their - "seriously competitive" and so it proved with the jolly LA Vechia Scuola 3rd - nice lay. Kalahonda unplaced and Rare RAnsom 2nd for each way backers.

Laying the Czechs provesd fruitful. I ended up doing a draw no bet double with Portugal and Germany today to retain an interest. Just need Germany NOT to lose, but preferably win this evening for the bet to come in. 2 1/4 chances make this pretty much a 1/2 bet and a decent chance of coming in.

Ronny scored but not first goal alas.

Half time full time and Team to win both halves may not be the same bet ( I think!) The firwst bet - the team only have to score the winner in the first half to win that bet, but I think the 2nd bet is that the team has to actually win both halves as if they are actual independent events - bang goes my betfair loophole!

Under 2.5 goals emminently tradeable at 1-1 up to the end of the game - as was the 1-1 scoreline at 90 minutes

Racing at present is difficult to evaluate early as I miss out on significant market movers at this time of writing.
System bets seem to be working though

FOOTY
Germany face Croatia tonight and the question is "Will there be any significant improvement in the Croats?" I have already included a draw no bet on Germany in a double with Portugal (at silly odds of 1/4) , playing up my double on Spain and unders in the Sweden match.

We have seen generally this tournament that odds on shots fairly demolish their rivals and 1.76 may indicate more of the same against a Croatia who ,at first glance, were very disappointing.
I will back at 1.76 to lay off if, as I hope, the Germans score the first goal.

Germany/Germany is at 3 allowing level stakes with Draw/Germany and Draw/Draw. I cannot see the Croats getting any change from the Germans tonight.

With my double already running, I'm happy staying with that today

Austria v Poland hardly sets the pulses racing. Half time score 0-0 at 2.48 , 1-0 and 2-0 are over 5 so slight loss on 0-0 with reasonable profit on the other scores.
I will chance under 2.5 goals to trade in this match.

HORSES

Again a tricky day
900 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Noble Minstrel, 8/1 Lilac Wine, 10/1 Kilmeena Magic, 12/1 Allez Melina, Figurita, 16/1 Schemer Fagan, 20/1 Tilly Shilling, 25/1 Laconicos .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NOBLE MINSTREL came good with a vengeance last week and his follow-up attempt is boosted by the fact that none of his seven rivals has ever won. If there is to be a turn-up, Lilac Wine looks the most likely candidate

Lilac WIne each way here although the fav looks good (as the price, alas, suggests)

230 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Faraway Sound, 9/2 Lady Fantasie, 7/1 Kings House, 8/1 Missus Christie, 10/1 Just Five, 16/1 Rioja Ruby, 20/1 Keen Rabbit, 33/1 Naughty Natz .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This test is probably as sharp as FARAWAY SOUND would want but he has plenty in hand on form and connections will be stuck for options if he gets turned over here. Missus Christie is the more interesting of the two newcomers in a race in which the others with previous experience make little appeal.[

Keen Rabbit and Naughty Natz each way - outsiders at big prices in a maiden claimer over 5 furlongs - not expecting a return but you never know








810 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 La Vecchia Scuola, 5/1 Ella, 7/1 Akarem, Tifernati, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Lochiel, 12/1 Sin City, 14/1 Maneki Neko, Nero West, 16/1 Gordonsville, Whispering Death, 33/1 Regent´s Secret ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A seriously competitive staying event for the grade and one that should suit the stayers with a strong pace seemingly assured. ELLA looks another progressive handicapper for Alan Swinbank to go to war with and, although she did it from the front at Pontefract, there's a good chance she'll have a chance to settle better here with so much pace on up front. The admirable La Vecchia Scuola shouldn't be far away once again. "seriously competitive" - why not lay the shortest priced horse in the field? - probably La Vecchia Scuola 655 KEMPTON Calahonda for a place looks interesting - albeit at a short price LEOPARDSTOWN 600 - Rare Ransomn - another maiden though and I don't like these as it's a lottery MAidens and handicaps at Nottingham FOOTY Difficult set of matches this evening - The Czechs play Portugal and knee jerk reaction is to favour Portugal. Perhaps I'll lay the Czechs this evening or back Portugal draw no bet (the bookie way of laying the opposition) Goals wise - difficult to evaluate - overs is realistic but then so is unders given the lack of Czech attacking prowess First goalscorer -Ronny and Gomez again -a post width away last time. Watch out for Pepe at big odds , or has he scored his defender's goal?