Interesting that pretty much all of the horses mentioned with early morning 16/1 system reverses ended unplaced, but at the 210 Ripon, one horse was 16/1 in the betting forecast and 33/1 in the live market and came 2nd .
Obviously early morning monitoring doesn't work for backing purposes, but will it continue for place laying perhaps?
Unders came in the Sweden game - a case of sweating it out for me although there were opportunities to break even half time , but DAd's Army couldn't get a goal against the young Russians, much to the disgust of their manager Capt MAinwaring
Overnight rain forecast at AScot
305 - Kitty Matcham each way - around 8/1 could place at least
345
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Yeats, 2/1 Coastal Path, 10/1 Geordieland, 14/1 Allegretto, 16/1 Regal Flush, 20/1 Sagara, 25/1 Finalmente, Le Miracle, 33/1 Thundering Star, 66/1 Diamond Quest ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: YEATS (nap) makes strong appeal, having proved himself a tip-top stayer in winning with something to spare in the last two runnings of this. Main market rival Coastal Path has form that is not yet quite on the same level and also needs to prove his stamina for this extreme trip but still commands plenty of respect as easily the biggest danger, ahead of Allegretto |
Yeats is the Ballydoyle representative and 2 miles 4 affords plenty ofr scope trading wise in a prospective 2 horse race. Place only is obviously very safe I would imagine
FAIRYHOUSE
605
Luminous eyes
635 - Grand Ducal
805 - Giant among men and LAdy alicia
905 - Angel dreamer and Hold me love me
830 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sularno, 11/2 Upstairs, 6/1 Not Now Lewis, 12/1 Granakey, High Class Problem, Welcome Releaf, Zorn, 14/1 Mystic Roll, 16/1 Postmaster, Sorrel Point, 20/1 Ruffie, 25/1 Club Captain, Golden Brown, 33/1 The Graig, 50/1 Caj, To The Max .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from SULARNO, who's true potential shone through when dropped to this trip latest and can swiftly follow up under a penalty before the handicapper gets hold of him |
One who could be beginning a winning sequence in handicaps - penalties have not yet taken hold
650 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Jazacosta, 7/1 Mannlichen, 9/1 Threestepstoheaven, 10/1 Tropical Blue, 12/1 Supernoverre, 14/1 Spring Secret, 33/1 Indian Fiesta .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very difficult to oppose JAZACOSTA, whose latest effort marked him down a sure-fire maiden winner kept away from the very top courses and there isn't much strength in depth here. Mannlichen is the more interesting of the two newcomers. |
Writing this a full 12 hours before the race goes off but the fav looks worthy of support under my HTB system albeit at stingy odds - beware market moves
640 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Commemoration Day, Ohana, 9/2 Notre Cyborg, 5/1 Contra Mundum, 6/1 Allez Frank, 13/2 Pilca, 7/1 Go Free, 50/1 Trampoline King .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All but one of these can be given a shout and the recent form of Ohana and Contra Mundum looks sound enough. ALLEZ FRANK disappointed over hurdles last time but is given the chance to build on his previous chasing debut Lay the fav here? !all but one of these can be given a chance! FOOTY Bloody Germans, as Basil Fawlty would say! Unpredictable as ever against a good Portugeuse side but will German efficiency see them through. It's a difficult one to call. Another lay the draw last night came good and perhaps this is the option again tonight - covering the win on both teams? Under 2.5 goals reverts to 1.57 again - the price it was at the start of the group stages when unders was most likely. I'll just stick to the lay the draw today |
HAMILTON
210
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Reve De Soleil, 4/1 Jobekani, 9/2 Noble Storm, 11/2 Royal Muwasim, 14/1 Dark Velvet, 16/1 Digit, 20/1 Sweet Virginia, 100/1 Royal Premium .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REVE DE SOLEIL has already achieved more than enough to win an average race of this type here and can see off Jobekani. Noble Storm makes most appeal of the others. |
I make mention opf "reverse" 16/1 bets who are not favourite - Jobekani is 9/1 in the live market and worth each way support. The most obvious bet is Noble storm to place for me
615 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Artreju, 9/2 Show Winner, 8/1 Prime Number, Ryedale Ovation, Stargazer Jim, Tinnarinka, 10/1 Happy As Larry, Uig, 12/1 Man Of Gwent, Touch Of Style, 20/1 Accompanist .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tightly knit handicap and several possibilities, none making more appeal than ARTREJU who looked good when scoring at Newmarket last time and who should get a decent pace to chase. Stargazer Jim and Show Winner may give him most to think about |
In experiemental mode and no money down here, but following on from my 16/1 in reverse theory , Tinnarinka is currently 14/1 and 8/1 in the betting forecast in a "tight knit handicap"
645
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Ivona, 9/2 Albarouche, 6/1 Basanti, Mumayeza, 10/1 Liberally, Opera De Luna, Signora, 12/1 Taminas Desert, 14/1 Nyumba, Sensible, 16/1 Oops Another Act, 20/1 Fortunella, 33/1 Ardkilly Belle, 100/1 Dalayla .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with previous experience don't look anything out of the ordinary and although Albarouche and Sensible may be capable of better, the well-bred debutante IVONA could be worth siding with this tim |
Again Nyumba is at 25/1 - is a debutant too in a maiden. BUT this race doesn't go off til 645 - again no money down on this one
845
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Pochard, 5/1 Synonymy, 6/1 Whaxaar, 8/1 Leyte Gulf, Mister Completely, Rainbow Dash, 10/1 Ganymede, Moonshine Beach, 16/1 Title Deed, 20/1 Kanisorn, 25/1 Foreign King, 33/1 Fiddlers Ford, Left Hand Drive, Pepito Collonges .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pochard has races in her on the Flat but she is a thorough stayer and this track may not be ideal. Synonymy and Mister Completely are possibles, but WHAXAAR looks to be going the right way and can make a successful return to Polytrac |
Again Synonymy - out to 8/1
LEOPARDSTOWN
605
Irish Combos again - Sea of Marmara, April and Cool for cats each way
635 - GRaceful star
705 - Second glance win only
735 - Domestic fund
835 - Absolute image
I would do these Irish combo bets with a separate betting bank and preferably each way
655 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Jaconet, 11/2 Best Suited, 7/1 Missus Molly Brown, 10/1 Bungie, Jevington Star, Maahe, 14/1 Cryptic Clue, Hapi, Marquis De Louvois, Mill Creek, 20/1 Caught In Paradise, 25/1 Carlton Mac, Joint Agency, Only A Splash, Splendidio, Stir Crazy, 33/1 Mandalay King, Terandeil .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these are reliable betting propositions. Jaconet is worth a second look with the blinkers fitted for the first time but a chance is taken with MISSUS MOLLY BROWN, whose stable is in good form and who should appreciate the return to turf after two below-par runs on Fibresand.[RY] |
Missus Molly Brown, Hapi and Carlton Mac have nearly doubled in price from their betting forecast prices - again no money down - just observing - evening race as well - a lot can change in the interim
725 -
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Rievaulx World, 6/1 Sunset Crest, 10/1 El Bobby, Rio Cobolo, Royal Max, 14/1 Abu Derby, 16/1 Blackwater Fort, 20/1 Ba Globetrotter, Ishiquick, Rebelwithoutacause, 33/1 Bold Hawk, Cosmic Sun, Ishe Mac, 66/1 Kheylide, Miss Moloney.
conventional market move - rebelwithout acause currently 8/1 in the love market - again we have a long wait to race start but is this a market mover?
755
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wise Melody, 7/2 Great Charm, 7/1 La Chicaluna, Mister Hardy, 10/1 Quest For Success, Tawzeea, 20/1 Anosti, Calmdownmate, 25/1 Jonny Lesters Hair .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two progressive ones are WISE MELODY and Great Charm but, if the ground stays on top, preference will be for the former, who turned in an improved performance over 5f last week. The stable is flying and the filly, who will be well suited by the return to this trip, is sure to go well from the same mar |
825
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Claret And Amber, Intersky Charm, 5/1 Rosbay, Wigwam Willie, 7/1 Minority Report, Sculastic, 10/1 Prince Noel, 14/1 Nuit Sombre, 25/1 Bed Fellow .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With stamina doubts about Minority Report, Wigwam Willie and Claret And Amber and concerns over whether this will be enough of a test for Rosbay or Sculastic, a chance is taken with PRINCE NOEL. Noel Wilson's runner shaped as though the outing was needed on his first run for over six months last time and he'll be interesting if able to get back to the level of form he was showing on Polytrack last autum |
220 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Mendip Dane, 5/1 Perfect Storm, 6/1 Dr Dream, Wood Fern, 13/2 Sun Quest, 7/1 Dancewiththedevil, 10/1 Limit, 20/1 Safe Investment, 25/1 Powers And Soda, Where´s Arnie, 33/1 Fortuitous, 50/1 Springwood Lady .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mendip Dane will be popular representing Nicholls/McCoy but he'll probably be plenty short enough considering his recent pointing exploits and WOOD FERN, on the back of some decent performances in better races, looks a feasible alternativ |
Sun Quest 12/1 - again just to observe to see if this doubling in odds is a real reflection of the horses chances or a method of masking its chances
330
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bond Cruz, 5/2 Silvo, 7/1 Longstone Lass, 10/1 The Real Alydaly, 12/1 Countback, 14/1 Square Dealer, 16/1 Bandits Pistol, Celtic Saloon, Southern Tide, 20/1 Makandy, 25/1 Turn Card, 33/1 North Walk.
A poor race and a great example of what I mean - Countback 12/1 in the betting forecast is quoted at 40/1 in the live market. A rick by the betting forecaster? I don't know - again no money down
445
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Black Anshan, 100/30 Time To Panic, 4/1 Alasoun, 6/1 St Mellion Freeway, 14/1 Dr Moss, 16/1 Alfie´s Isle, 20/1 High Ball, 33/1 Shammy Buskins, 50/1 Desert Soul, 100/1 Have A Shot, Lynford Noora, Mantle Of Gold.
Doctor Moss is 40/1 again. Perhaps I'm wide of the mark here, it's another poor race so its worth seeing how the horse runs
FOOTY
Go with the market today -unders in the Russia v Sweden match? I have a policy of laying the draw in must win games and have come good on all occasions I have tried it - what chance tonight, with Ibrahamovic more confident, and Larsson doing superb for a man in his early 70's .
The Greeks are out and the Spanish field a 2nd string - a meaningless fixture tonight and with that comes unpredictability. - no bet for me
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