It was nice to get Fleeting Spirit beaten, more short favourites at big meetings going down, BUT in selected races. Well done to Henry, an assured victory at a short price. Bukit Tingii was another successful lay.
If you'd have backed the first 4 in the 420, you'd have bagged Art Connosseur at 8/1 - thanks to Spotlight's information about the market being solid in this race.
Bush ranger 2nd for Johnny Murtagh in the big field race.
Overs was emminently tradeable at 2-0 with half an hour to go against 10 men, -here's a question for Luca Toni - rearrange the following words into a sentence - "you brothel score couldn't a in "
Laying the draw came good again and was helped by the superb Ribery's departure and the sending off
At Newton Abbott, in a 4 horse race, Leo's Lucky star won at 4/1
An excellent day all round yesterday.
I'm beginning to see the Aiden O'Brien tactics - spoilers and pace setters at big prices leave more fancied horses and those priced up to 33/1 in with placing at least.
ASCOT
230 - Jupiter Pluvius is priced to place for Aiden O'Brien, and George Bernard Shaw has an outside chance at 25/1 ,again each way - this horse is no slouch either!
345
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Duke Of Marmalade, 9/2 Phoenix Tower, 6/1 Ask, 8/1 Pressing, Sixties Icon, 10/1 Pipedreamer, 20/1 Literato, Loup Breton, 40/1 Regime, 100/1 Hattan, Petara Bay, Red Rock Canyon, Stotsfold .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A clear-cut opportunity for DUKE OF MARMALADE (nap) to cement his position as the top older horse in Europe over this trip. There are doubts about Literato and Ask, his main rivals on form, producing their best today, while Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer have scope for further improvement but clearly need a step forward to land this prize. |
Watch Red Rock Canyon tear off in front - he's not backable as he is likely to fade and set the race up for the Duke - apparently a banker for the festival.
Place only for me here, playing it safe given the competitive nature of the race. Market moves aside, 5 are in with an each way shout. from Phoenix Tower to Pipedreamer but I'll stick with Duke to place
420
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bankable, 13/2 Lang Shining, 7/1 We´ll Come, 12/1 Docofthebay, 16/1 Extraterrestrial, 20/1 Flipando, 25/1 Emerald Wilderness, Oceana Gold, Royal Power, 33/1 Ballinteni, Diamond Tycoon, Kavachi, Little White Lie, 40/1 Humungous, Mr Aviator, Overturn, 50/1 Ansells Pride, Dream Lodge, Dubai´s Touch, Fajr, Fight Club, Mujood, Orchard Supreme, Pride Of Nation, Secret World, Yarqus, 66/1 Crocodile Bay, Final Verse, Sir Xaar, 100/1 Samarinda.
Another banker in an ,erm, 30 runner class 2 handicap, and logic dictates a lay at such a short price. Optimists however will ask why 7/4 in such a big field?
A likely lay to trade in running if there are problems in such a field, again looks good for a place? - 4 to place
455
Heartshaped installed 2nd fav for O'Brien and another each way contender
HAMILTON
210
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Reve De Soleil, 4/1 Jobekani, 9/2 Noble Storm, 11/2 Royal Muwasim, 14/1 Dark Velvet, 16/1 Digit, 20/1 Sweet Virginia, 100/1 Royal Premium .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REVE DE SOLEIL has already achieved more than enough to win an average race of this type here and can see off Jobekani. Noble Storm makes most appeal of the others. |
I make mention opf "reverse" 16/1 bets who are not favourite - Jobekani is 9/1 in the live market and worth each way support. The most obvious bet is Noble storm to place for me
615 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Artreju, 9/2 Show Winner, 8/1 Prime Number, Ryedale Ovation, Stargazer Jim, Tinnarinka, 10/1 Happy As Larry, Uig, 12/1 Man Of Gwent, Touch Of Style, 20/1 Accompanist .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tightly knit handicap and several possibilities, none making more appeal than ARTREJU who looked good when scoring at Newmarket last time and who should get a decent pace to chase. Stargazer Jim and Show Winner may give him most to think about |
In experiemental mode and no money down here, but following on from my 16/1 in reverse theory , Tinnarinka is currently 14/1 and 8/1 in the betting forecast in a "tight knit handicap"
645
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Ivona, 9/2 Albarouche, 6/1 Basanti, Mumayeza, 10/1 Liberally, Opera De Luna, Signora, 12/1 Taminas Desert, 14/1 Nyumba, Sensible, 16/1 Oops Another Act, 20/1 Fortunella, 33/1 Ardkilly Belle, 100/1 Dalayla .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with previous experience don't look anything out of the ordinary and although Albarouche and Sensible may be capable of better, the well-bred debutante IVONA could be worth siding with this tim |
Again Nyumba is at 25/1 - is a debutant too in a maiden. BUT this race doesn't go off til 645 - again no money down on this one
845
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Pochard, 5/1 Synonymy, 6/1 Whaxaar, 8/1 Leyte Gulf, Mister Completely, Rainbow Dash, 10/1 Ganymede, Moonshine Beach, 16/1 Title Deed, 20/1 Kanisorn, 25/1 Foreign King, 33/1 Fiddlers Ford, Left Hand Drive, Pepito Collonges .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pochard has races in her on the Flat but she is a thorough stayer and this track may not be ideal. Synonymy and Mister Completely are possibles, but WHAXAAR looks to be going the right way and can make a successful return to Polytrac |
Again Synonymy - out to 8/1
LEOPARDSTOWN
605
Irish Combos again - Sea of Marmara, April and Cool for cats each way
635 - GRaceful star
705 - Second glance win only
735 - Domestic fund
835 - Absolute image
I would do these Irish combo bets with a separate betting bank and preferably each way
655 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Jaconet, 11/2 Best Suited, 7/1 Missus Molly Brown, 10/1 Bungie, Jevington Star, Maahe, 14/1 Cryptic Clue, Hapi, Marquis De Louvois, Mill Creek, 20/1 Caught In Paradise, 25/1 Carlton Mac, Joint Agency, Only A Splash, Splendidio, Stir Crazy, 33/1 Mandalay King, Terandeil .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these are reliable betting propositions. Jaconet is worth a second look with the blinkers fitted for the first time but a chance is taken with MISSUS MOLLY BROWN, whose stable is in good form and who should appreciate the return to turf after two below-par runs on Fibresand.[RY] |
Missus Molly Brown, Hapi and Carlton Mac have nearly doubled in price from their betting forecast prices - again no money down - just observing - evening race as well - a lot can change in the interim
725 -
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Rievaulx World, 6/1 Sunset Crest, 10/1 El Bobby, Rio Cobolo, Royal Max, 14/1 Abu Derby, 16/1 Blackwater Fort, 20/1 Ba Globetrotter, Ishiquick, Rebelwithoutacause, 33/1 Bold Hawk, Cosmic Sun, Ishe Mac, 66/1 Kheylide, Miss Moloney.
conventional market move - rebelwithout acause currently 8/1 in the love market - again we have a long wait to race start but is this a market mover?
755
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wise Melody, 7/2 Great Charm, 7/1 La Chicaluna, Mister Hardy, 10/1 Quest For Success, Tawzeea, 20/1 Anosti, Calmdownmate, 25/1 Jonny Lesters Hair .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two progressive ones are WISE MELODY and Great Charm but, if the ground stays on top, preference will be for the former, who turned in an improved performance over 5f last week. The stable is flying and the filly, who will be well suited by the return to this trip, is sure to go well from the same mar |
825
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Claret And Amber, Intersky Charm, 5/1 Rosbay, Wigwam Willie, 7/1 Minority Report, Sculastic, 10/1 Prince Noel, 14/1 Nuit Sombre, 25/1 Bed Fellow .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With stamina doubts about Minority Report, Wigwam Willie and Claret And Amber and concerns over whether this will be enough of a test for Rosbay or Sculastic, a chance is taken with PRINCE NOEL. Noel Wilson's runner shaped as though the outing was needed on his first run for over six months last time and he'll be interesting if able to get back to the level of form he was showing on Polytrack last autum |
220 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Mendip Dane, 5/1 Perfect Storm, 6/1 Dr Dream, Wood Fern, 13/2 Sun Quest, 7/1 Dancewiththedevil, 10/1 Limit, 20/1 Safe Investment, 25/1 Powers And Soda, Where´s Arnie, 33/1 Fortuitous, 50/1 Springwood Lady .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mendip Dane will be popular representing Nicholls/McCoy but he'll probably be plenty short enough considering his recent pointing exploits and WOOD FERN, on the back of some decent performances in better races, looks a feasible alternativ |
Sun Quest 12/1 - again just to observe to see if this doubling in odds is a real reflection of the horses chances or a method of masking its chances
330
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bond Cruz, 5/2 Silvo, 7/1 Longstone Lass, 10/1 The Real Alydaly, 12/1 Countback, 14/1 Square Dealer, 16/1 Bandits Pistol, Celtic Saloon, Southern Tide, 20/1 Makandy, 25/1 Turn Card, 33/1 North Walk.
A poor race and a great example of what I mean - Countback 12/1 in the betting forecast is quoted at 40/1 in the live market. A rick by the betting forecaster? I don't know - again no money down
445
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Black Anshan, 100/30 Time To Panic, 4/1 Alasoun, 6/1 St Mellion Freeway, 14/1 Dr Moss, 16/1 Alfie´s Isle, 20/1 High Ball, 33/1 Shammy Buskins, 50/1 Desert Soul, 100/1 Have A Shot, Lynford Noora, Mantle Of Gold.
Doctor Moss is 40/1 again. Perhaps I'm wide of the mark here, it's another poor race so its worth seeing how the horse runs
FOOTY
Go with the market today -unders in the Russia v Sweden match? I have a policy of laying the draw in must win games and have come good on all occasions I have tried it - what chance tonight, with Ibrahamovic more confident, and Larsson doing superb for a man in his early 70's .
The Greeks are out and the Spanish field a 2nd string - a meaningless fixture tonight and with that comes unpredictability. - no bet for me
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