I was experiementing yesterday with a "lay what you would normally back" dutch strategy in certain races. ie we would dutch the outsiders and lay the horses which are the most obvious dutching material. This worked superbly in Ireland yesterday with payouts of around 6/1 -ie £36 stake produced a return of £165!
Chester's first race looks an ideal type, being, as it is, an apprentice handicap.
715 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cornish Rose, 11/2 Lady Salama, 7/1 Musical Maze, 9/1 Rosy Mantle, 10/1 Granny McPhee, 16/1 Our Apolonia, 20/1 Lunar Romance ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORNISH ROSE is the most interesting of those with experience, having shaped well on her debut at Newmarket. Positive betting signals for any of the newcomers, notably Rosy Mantle and Granny McPhee, would be worth noting |
If odds on, then Cornish Rose is layable ONLY if odds on
CURRAGH - usual Irish combos - Aiden O'Brien, Murtagh, Weld, Smullen. Watch out for the bigger odds selections. We should see some retrn tonight I hope
220 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Peter´s Gift, 6/1 Dream In Waiting, Exceedingly Good, Faraway Flower, 12/1 Claphands, Moonlight Affair, 33/1 Adozen Dreams, Eyesore, 50/1 Alacity.
Faraway flower now 9/4? Place only for sure. Perhaps signals a lay of Peters Gift if, again, ODDS ON
250
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Silvanus, 4/1 Rowaad, 8/1 Royal Encore, 14/1 Virtuality, 16/1 Amicus Meus, Hardanger, 25/1 Braille, 33/1 Mollyatti, Tump Mac, 100/1 Tendulkar´s Diva .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SILVANUS is difficult to oppose with his main opponent Rowaad still to prove himself at the trip |
"difficult to oppose" - trigger words for me. Place only on Silvanus - each way afficionados will be able to dig out an each way contender here I'm sure
230 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Rio Royale, 5/1 Zebrano, 6/1 Desire To Excel, Lahaleeb, 8/1 Temperence Hall, 9/1 Wilbury Star, 10/1 Blusher, 20/1 Starlight Wish, 25/1 Charismatic Lady, 33/1 Ba Globetrotter, Indian Fiesta, 50/1 Cashed Up, 66/1 Paymaster In Chief .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIO ROYALE (nap) has shown enough to win a race like this and the number one stall, which has proved a significant advantage on the straight course here this year, looks the perfect launching pad - especially with his principal form rivals drawn wide.[ |
Place only on the fav here? Expereince and good draw could help
305
BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Autumn Blades, 12/1 Global Glory, Silver Diamond, 16/1 Pajada, 33/1 Joe Rich, Station Place, 50/1 Bakers Boy, Bluebird Chariot .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUTUMN BLADES isn't the sort that you would want to be lumping on at short odds, particularly in blinkers for the first time, but each of his runs has earned a higher RPR than any attained by his rivals. Conditions won't be a problem and he really will never get a better chance. Silver Diamond and Pajada could be the best each-way alternative |
In line with my "lay what you'd back and back what you'd lay" philosophy in obvious races, this fav must be laid -the liability is ultra low and ,well,you never know!
415
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Great Knight, 4/1 Miss Poppy, Town And Gown, 5/1 Filemot, 10/1 Hucking Harmony, 16/1 In Toto, 33/1 Lithaam .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Great Knight has been beaten at 11-4 or shorter on all four starts and although he is up to winning a similar race, he looks worth taking on. Miss Poppy and Town And Gown are both capable but FILEMOT showed good pace here on her debut and is worth another chance to confirm that promise. |
Again, GReat Knight sounds like a lay but may be backable today
655 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Moment Of Clarity, 7/1 Seyaadi, Trouble Mountain, 8/1 Dechiper, Nesno, 10/1 Calcutta Cup, Dan Tucker, Grandad Bill, Moonstreaker, 12/1 Keisha Kayleigh, Tizzy May, 14/1 Getrah, Thornaby Green, 25/1 Trans Sonic, 33/1 Carefree, 50/1 Betteras Bertie, Whittinghamvillage .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A competitive opener with plenty of runners in form and no shortage of C&D form either. Preference is for SEYAADI who is gradually recapturing some form for his new yard and, judged on last week's rather unlucky Redcar defeat, can now reverse earlier C&D form with Trouble Mountain, Nesno and Calcutta Cup. Moment Of Clarity, who is unpenalised for last Saturday's Haydock success, and Dechiper and Thornaby Green, who both have a good record over this C&D, have to be considered too. |
A race for me to back the outsiders in a dutch leaving out, say, the first 7 or so horses.
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