| Horse Racing > : To Be Placed > Kazbow | Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Bets |
| Selection | Odds | Stake (£) | Liability (£) | Bid type | Placed | Matched (GMT) | Profit/loss (£) | |
| Kazbow | 1.12 | 154.55 | Back | 29-Nov-09 16:18 | 29-Nov-09 16:18 | 18.55 | ||
| Kazbow | 1.12 | 45.45 | Back | 29-Nov-09 16:18 | 29-Nov-09 16:18 | 5.45 |
Don't forget Inter Milan at home - unbeaten again yesterday and I laid Fiorentina at 7.6 , around a 1.15 shot.
Football first
OB v Koge - 1.23 the home side
Top versus 2nd bottom side.
unbeaten at home but have had some tight games in a league of only 12 teams - 2 1-0's and 2 1-1's at home and one 2-1 at home from 7 home matches show that this team don't lose at home but may not be worth backing at 1.23
Koge have drawn 2 away but been royally spanked by Kopenhagen and Brondby ( remember OB are top of the league ,)
This is in running so I would back OB and hope they score first, then trade out , given the fact they have had so many tight games
100 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Den Of Iniquity, 7/4 Numide, 4/1 The Jazz Musician, 14/1 Maximix, 20/1 She´s Humble, 25/1 Premier Bleu, 33/1 Orana Conti.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to draw much encouragement from Numide's chase debut recently and this ought to go the way of DEN OF INIQUITY. |
Heavy ground here today b ut a probability bet for place only backers - should involve 3 horses at the head of the market unless the ground finds them out. 1.45 to place in a very illiquid market
Den has won twice on heavy and it is always key when this have this ground to side with those proven on the surface. Normally, I would strike a line through heavy meetings
120 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Working Title, 7/4 I Have Dreamed, 11/4 Kanad, 25/1 Safe Investment, 100/1 Musical Weld, Vogarth.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Softening ground could be a cause for concern with Kanad and Working Title but I HAVE DREAMED should be untroubled and has the edge in experience. |
Yet another probability race and a concern that all 3 principles are in the same boat. Only really ever run over good to soft and the suspicion today is the ground with be softer rather then good
Working title is now odds on under Geraghty for Henderson - the partnership behind Punchestowns a few days ago. 1.29 to place and again the markets have not properly formed with 1.37 on the lay side indicating the back price should increase as the market becomes more active
130 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Quartano, 7/2 Lord Singer, 11/2 Alteranthela, 10/1 Ready Or Not, 16/1 Red Anchor.
| DIOMED VERDICT: QUARTANO sets a clear standard on the form of his Plumpton win on heavy last time and should be hard to beat under a penalty. |
Fav now 1/3 and winner on heavy last time out. I do like to see betting forecast prices battered in -again only 2 places means we have to be spot on here - horse is also a "hard to beat " selection - simply put you see the words " hard to beat" in Diomed's verdict and Spotliht mentions "should take some stopping" 1.12 to place1.35 to win
250 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 The Polomoche, 3/1 Teddy´s Reflection, 12/1 Marc Of Brilliance, 33/1 Art Gallery, Harvey May, 50/1 No More Punts.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Teddy's Reflection is expected to make a better chaser but he has a big gap to bridge with THE POLOMOCHE on hurdle ratings. Both go well fresh. |
2/5 betting forecast price now 1/5 in the live market -6 runners - 3 are 50/1 or bigger ideally leaving 3 other principles fighting for 2 places 1.13 to place
310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ravi River, 8/1 Desert Mile, Jord, 10/1 Sendreni, 12/1 Rosie Says No, Smalljohn, 16/1 Obe Gold, 20/1 Charlie Delta, Sir George, 50/1 Madame McManus, 100/1 Seren Arian, Spiders Tern.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RAVI RIVER is a fair sort to be running in sellers and he can capitalise on what looks a good opening. Significant price gapper albeit in lowly selling company.Sir George and CHarlie Delta possible movers here 1.22 to place - nice price if we can have faith in this price gap SHORTLIST A difficult day with 2 places only generally available and heavy ground at one venue and officially good to soft at the other venue which threatens to become softer 130 FOLK - Quartano mentioned only because it is a " hard to beat " selection and faces only 3 now vying for 2 places. A clear round and faith in Diomed's confidence should ensure a place - red anchor is still in Betfair's market but not in the racing post betting forecast website so a concern this may be still 5 runners. 1.11 to place leaves little margin for error for a horse under a penalty in heavy ground 250 FAKENHAM - like Quartano, another horse here whose betting forecast price is significantly shorter in the live betting, Polomoche has 6 rivals, 3 of whom are 50/1 or bigger and, all things being equal, should play no part. 1.13 to place is a reasonable price given the horse should only have 2 to beat to place - newcomer to chase fences so a slight concern there but has the right jockey onboard who brought home the bacon on similarly profiled Punchestowns. 310 WOLVES - Ravi River is the best and most prominent price gapper of the day and has the advantage that there are no ground concerns on the all weather - plies his trade on the all weather and in class 4 and class 3 handicaps. Drop to selling company today is the reason behind the price gap Concern this is a seller and jockey has a poor win and place strike rate - SJ Craine - I don't know much about him.1.22 to place is the kind of price I would expect of a price gapper though. OB v Koge is an intriguing game. OB not reknowned for spanking teams at home, BUT away side have been spanked by 2 of the top 5 sides away from home and OB are top of the league, so using my system based on looking at teams similarly positioned in the league, then we would expect, at the very least, the 1.18 for over 1.5 goals to offer us something. As mentioned at the start of the blog, far too many draws, 1-0's at home mean that backing OB or backing over 1.5 goals would only be done with trading in mind. ONE A DAY No rock solids today for me in the "Big Bucks" category. Will heavy ground and the penalty affect Quartano? How will the Polomoche cope with chase fences for the first time ? Why is Ravi River running in a selling stakes race ? AS you can see there are opportunities today but there are question marks which don't make these opportunities rock solid. For me, I have found the " hard to beat" selections tend to run very well indeed which brings Quartano in. I have also found that betting forecast prices which are significantly shorter in the live market are a precursor to a good run - which brings the Polomoche in. And when horses are significantly price gapped like Ravi River, well they do tend to place NEGATIVES? Ground concerns - I hate betting in heavy ground regardless of pervious form in the ground. I don't like newcomers to the bigger obstacles too. And I don't like sellers, by definition the horses are not quite as reliable as Denman. I also don't know S J Craine sufficiently well, and his all weather record is not the best. LEaving a difficult decision to make today. Instinct tells me a no bet day and wait for the more solid options which will present themselves as the week unfolds, but were I to play, then faith perhaps in Quartano as a "hard to beat" selection, under strong connections and a winner in heavy , against 3 horses only for 2 places. Just hope I have made the right choice and don't rue heavy ground racing |
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