7/11

Plenty of opportunities yesterday but I couldn't write the rest of the blog

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Sitting Tennant		1.07	200.00	Back	06-Nov-09 14:47	14.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	14.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	14.00
					Commission @ 4.57%:	0.64
					Net Market Total:	13.36

I spotted this one on the way back home and place backed a 1/4 shot without any look at the Racing Post, and he came 2nd so job done

1240 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pepe Simo, 5/1 Diamond Brook, Qaspal, 7/1 Eastern Paramour, Wade Farm Billy, 9/1 Doctor Foxtrot, 20/1 Miller´s Dawn, 40/1 Mrs Overall, 50/1 Kauto The Roc, 66/1 Normandy Landings, 100/1 Campfire Tales, I´m Henrietta.

DIOMED VERDICT: PEPE SIMO can put his previous jumping experience to good use.

Early race start today but this is the first race of interest. Pepe is another Walsh/Nicholls combo horse and they will place more than they don't 1.17 to place

105 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Crack Away Jack, 9/2 Calusa Crystal, 12/1 Mister Matt.

DIOMED VERDICT: CRACK AWAY JACK looks different class to his two rivals.

Stop the search here? 3 horses and 2 places and an opportunity to win back Jack and trade out at a lower price in running. A beginners chase 1.11 to place

250 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Gullible Gordon, 5/2 Kangaroo Court, 5/1 Bakbenscher, 6/1 Red Admiral.

DIOMED VERDICT: Gullible Gordon has a much harder task than at Chepstow and the promising KANGAROO COURT might just come out on top.

Surely kangaroo's absence sets this up for Gordon? 2 places and 3 horses 1.17 to place

300DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Forpadydeplasterer, 7/4 Herecomesthetruth, 11/4 Siegemaster, 12/1 Good Fella, 66/1 Saddler´s Native.

Cheltenham bound and a 3 horse race for 2 places - illiquid market

400 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Valentine Vic, 3/1 Pride In Battle, 9/2 Robain, 7/1 John´s Gift, 8/1 Plettenburg, 16/1 Treyarnon Bay, 33/1 Not Right Now, 50/1 Colonna Lecca, Johnny Mullen, 66/1 Bernie The Banker, 100/1 Nobbys Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALENTINE VIC has racecourse experience from his points in Ireland, both of them wins.

Guess who on Valentine Vic - a bumper so caution about a look in the market 1.25 to place

1245 - Paulton v norwich - 1.19 A cup game and surely an away win or will the magic of the Cup leave backers reeling. FA CUP first round should be easy pickings

3pm Man City v Burnley
1.39 Man City - like Leverkusen yesterday, City are priced to break a sequence of 4 draws - Leverkusen managed it. City have scored 2 or more in 3 of their 4 home games
Home form outstanding for Burnley, but only managed 2 goals away (both against Blackburn). Look at scores against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Spurs for an idea of likely scoreline today. 2 or more goals to nil so 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 could be likely scorelines.
I would expect this 4 draw sequence to end today

3pm - Rangers v St Mirren
1.31 - look at Celtic's 2-0 win at St Mirren as a possible guideline . Too many draws for Rangers means that I would look to trade if they score first incase it's yet another draw. In really poor form at present but it shows the weakness of the SPL that they are 1.31

3pm Tottenham v Sunderland
Goals anyone? 80% of Spurs home games have been over 2.5 goals and 60% of Sunderlands away games have been over 2.5 goals, so ,safety in mind, back over 1.5 goals

7pm - Barcelona v Mallorca
1.19 Barca. Laboured against Rubin away but should have won with the Ibra chance which hit the post. A solid and disciplined Rubin was also a factor
Excellent home form from Mallorca sees them 5th in the table. Only played one team away in the top 5 losing 2-0
Zaragoza not withstanding, ( 6 goals there), Barca have managed a 1-1 , 0-0 and 1-0 in previous games. Normally at 1.19, expectation is for goals.


SHORTLIST
Paulton v Norwich - 1.19 looks very enticing
105 SANDOWN - Crackawayjack at 1.11 to not get beaten by 2 horses ( or fall of course) in a 3 horse race looks great for me
250 WINCANTON - Gullible is 1.17 to place again in a 3 horse race and 2 places - Red Admiral cannot be discounted here so it's simply probability here and a hope Gullible finishes 1st and 2nd
3pm - Man City - chance them today at 1.39 to break a sequence of 4 draws? I would back City in the match odds market and them trade out if they score first. A chance to bump up the odds today compared to the sub 1.20 odds elsewhere
3pm Spurs - 1.24 over 1.5 goals should give an excellent run for our money

ONE A DAY
I will go for Norwich to get one over Paulton Rovers with their plumbers and plasterers and carpenters who will empty out like a horse in heavy ground over 3 miles 4 at Towcester. One of those "shocks if they lose" bets and fits into my idea of a one a day bet. Not rock solid cos it's the cup but logic dictates Naaaarrrrrrrich -it's in running too.
All bets in the shortlist look good today - some great probability bets. So, make your own decision and good luck