1250 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Causeway King, 4/1 Ciceron, 7/1 Westlin´ Winds, 8/1 Hallstatt, 10/1 Mr Prolific, 14/1 Singapore Reef, 33/1 Some Time Good, 100/1 Mrs Slocombe, Rio Gael.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CAUSEWAY KING is taken to follow up his Warwick victory. |
9 down to 7 and 2 clear outsiders certainly makes the fav's job of placing a lot easier. 1.11 to place relays as much - 3 places still - 3 newcomers are 2nd, 3rd and 4th fav and could be anything - Singapore reef well backed. This is effectively a 5 horse race for 3 places. 3 lb claimer on board today?
100 WINCANTON
| DIOMED VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has won this race six times in the last ten years, including with Denman, and VICO can keep up the good work for the stable. |
Given the excellent Nicholls run in this race, Vico? 1.25 to place - fav based solely on that record mentioned by Diomed? -that's the concern - an artificially low price
150 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Three Ships, 3/1 Games, 5/1 Ministerofinterior, 8/1 Tribiani, 10/1 Springtree, Star Of Memory, 20/1 Immaculate Red, 25/1 Bob´s Sister, 33/1 Lady Penelopy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: THREE SHIPS further underlined current form with a game Ludlow win and can follow up at this level. |
Only 5 under 25/1 the ones to focus on 1.23 for Three Ships to place - a selling hurdle but yet another perceived 5 horses fighting for 3 places
200 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Carole´s Legacy, 6/1 Cresswell Ruby, 9/1 Rare Article, 40/1 Ringsend Rose.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CAROLE'S LEGACY surely need only put in a clear round to collect. |
Let the odds do the work here - now 3 horses and 2 places - place and win markets are not properly formed ( must be a new market as I write with the recent non runner)-rare article is the non runner leaving the outsider still in the race, making this really a 2 horse race for 2 places ( bar any falls of course)- despite the poor odds , this is a solid race to look at 1.19 to win as the market reforms and 1.06 to place. Surely Cresswell Ruby enters the equation here for place only purposes as the horse inbetween the 1/7 shot and the 25/1 shot? 1.26 to place.
I would even go as far as to say Cresswell's price of 7 in the win market could be tradeable? Surely it will run below 7 at some stage , to 6.5 perhaps, an allow a nice trade?
Plenty of options and it's a case of making the right decision
210 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dave´s Dream, 7/2 Micheal Flips, 5/1 Matuhi, Numide, 14/1 My Moment, 100/1 Vogarth.
| DIOMED VERDICT: An excellent contest in prospect and MICHEAL FLIPS may prove the answer. |
2nd fav out opens things up for Dave. One 100/1 shot leaves 4 fighting for 2 places 1.19 to place
310 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Canni Thinkaar, 11/2 Command Marshal, 7/1 Carrickmines, 8/1 Mistress To No One, 10/1 Seven Stars, 12/1 Wujood, 20/1 Transvestite, 25/1 Mycenean Prince, Vicentio, 66/1 Pinkerton Mill.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CANNI THINKAAR produced a demolition job at Ludlow and can defy this penalty. |
Price gapper here 1.21 to place - similarl profile to Calzaghe recently - that horse produced a demolition job and won again under a penalty
No football today. I already have my one a day for Saturday - surely Chelski v Wolves ? ( you don't have to be a genius to do this one a day thing, you just have to make the right choice of nailed on bet!!)
SHORTLIST
200 WINCANTON stands out
Here are the options as I see it
1) BAck Caroles legacy to win at 1.19 and just hope that the one real opponent is well beaten
2) back carole's legacy to place at 1.06 and take your medicine - after all if the outsider runs to its price, this is a 2 horse race for, erm, 2 places - we will then be betting effectively on a clear round.
3) Cresswell ruby enters the equation now as this is a 3 horse race. Prices 1/7 6/1 25/1
Cresswell is 6/1 Place back Cresswell Ruby at 1.26 and hope this is a 2 horse race. Concern is wit the 7 lb claiming jockey.BUT he has ridden the horse as recently as 8th November.
4) Back Cresswell Ruby in the win market at 7.4 and lay off at 6.4 for a guaranteed profit ( assuming the horse is competitive under this inexperienced jockey)
5) Lay Ringsend Rose to place at odds of 4.5 currently is the equivalent of a 1.27 shot.
210 HUNT - Daves Dream now enters the equation with nearest market rival a non runner 1.19 and McCoy on this chase debutant.
ONE A DAY
As alluded to earlier, it's all about making the right decision now!
The obvious bet ,and safest bet, is back Carole's legacy at 1.06 to place ( well 1.05 now) and take the short price. After all we're after a nailed on bet, regardless of price and then we can move on to tomorrow. To be fair, a run of 3 bets at 1.2 shows that some days the better priced opportunities are there ( 2 of those 1.2 shots were football matches- there are none of interest today)
Now, if Ringsend Rose is 25/1 for a reason, then Cresswell Ruby's 1.25 to place becomes very appealing.
This is a 2 mile 5 novices chase so is a long distance and instinctually, I would be more likely to get involved as the race goes in running because I suspect the 1.05 place price will rise at some point.
1.19 to win for Carole's legacy is just a little shorter that Cresswell's 1.25 to place and is the same price as Daves Dream to place in the 210 Huntingdon under McCoy
SOLID ONE A DAY - Carole's legacy to place ( presumption of a clear round of jumping)
WORTH A CHANCE - Cresswell Ruby to place at 1.25 or Carole's legacy to win at 1.19
If you fancy the better odds, I am sure we will get a run for our money from Cresswell Ruby as long as Ringsend Rose runs to his 25/1 outsider price!!
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