Again, the horses proved difficult but following the market brought up a couple of likely selections in Sunnyhillboy and Behindcloseddoors but I stayed with the Arse .
Again today, ground is a concern so my focus may be on the football again, so a quick look at likely contenders tonight.
2pm Anorthosis v Ayia Napa 1.08 - Cypriot cup game - only match odds available and not in running
1230 - Croatian Cup sees Dinamo Zagreb 1.25 away from home - again not in running but known by reputation for goals. Concern that Croatian games may be open to fixing
Bayern Munich 1.26 this evening at home against Maccaibi Haifa - it's out of Bayern's hands but they do need to do their part and win this evening. Concern that they have not won at home in 3 ( those with glasses half full will see this as a sequence that can end -they are priced to end it at least)
If backing Bayern, I would have liked Robben and Ribery to both play, at least Ribery is out and is a big blow.
Low on confidence, this is another of those Liverpool type games of yesterday BUT motivation is a factor for Bayern - they simply must win and achieve a better result than Bordeaux against Juventus.
Man Utd 1.38 - no real motivation here as United have qualified and Besiktas can't. United fielding the nippers and may be an over 1.5 goal game to trade rather than back an unmotivated United. That said, Fergie is a winner !
No wonder Real are 1.14 as Ronny is due to return against FC Zurich. Watching Real though, it is a head scratcher how they have been travelling - too much baggage I think. Should be goals here and with that famous dodgy defence, Zurich could actually score. Looks the banker of the night for me as long as the unreliable Real play Ronaldo - 1.11 over 1.5 goals.
Good news is that Real NEED to win. This will either be a rout or a nerve jangling 1-0!!
1220 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cruise Director, 9/4 Heraldry, 11/4 Laborec, 10/1 Railway Park, 16/1 Calfraz, 33/1 Carlton Mac, Karathaena, Mistral De La Cour, Our Spring.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The consistent CRUISE DIRECTOR can follow up a recent win in similar company. |
4 to concentrate on here? Soft ground means we need to look for horses proven on soft and heavy - Heraldry fits the bill here as proven in heavy and soft Cruise is 1.28 to place , Heraldry 1.58 to place
1230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Todber, 9/2 Partner, 6/1 Cheap Thrills, Titus Gent, 8/1 Mambo Spirit, 10/1 Agnes Love, Suhayl Star, 14/1 Dakota Hills, Doctor Hilary, Yankee Storm, 33/1 Miss Hollybell.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CHEAP THRILLS ran well against a pace bias last time and is taken to beat Mambo Spirit. |
Mambo now 9/4 and all red - money for the horse? 1.62 to place - take a risk and follow the gamble? Yankee storm another bi mover into 4/1
120 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cunning Clarets, 7/1 Birch Hill Bedouin, Kosta Brava, Waldo Winchester, 8/1 Beamazed, 10/1 Lightening Rod, 12/1 Boyoboy, 14/1 Donny Briggs, Jack The Gent, 20/1 Alfie Bet, Another Dark Rum, Flash Harriet, Strawgate, 25/1 Not Talking, 33/1 Papa Drew, 66/1 Landofgreenginger.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Bumper winner BIRCH HILL BEDOUIN showed a good attitude to win his bumper last time and, although it wasn't the strongest of contests, he is the type to do well over jumps. |
13/8 - - - - 7/1 the fav in the live market but is a debutant to hurdling 1.43 to place
130 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Aeroplane, 6/1 Rioliina, 10/1 Flawed Genius, Monashee Rock, 20/1 Ever Cheerful, 66/1 Double Valentine, 100/1 Bluebird Chariot, Incy Wincy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AEROPLANE is not the most straightforward but, in this company, hard to avoid. |
Nice opportunity - no obstacles or ground concerns but one concern is the beret wearing Frank onboard who could get a horse in a one horse race unplaced . The straight 8 runners here 1.32 win and 1.07 place
325 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Magot De Grugy, 9/4 Dusk, 4/1 Guitar Rory, 10/1 Afistfullofpebbles, Massini Sunset, 12/1 Mr Prickle.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MAGOT DE GRUGY will relish conditions and can defy this likeable mark. |
Dusk a non runner and MAgot has form on soft and heavy which is great - 2 places though. Incidentally, look at Dusk's form - 3 wins and then pulled up. I laid him yesterday as it's douby hard to carry on winning when you are in handicap chases and handicap hurdles in soft ground!! Something to look for this jumps season
1.34 to place in an illiquid market
900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mourad, 6/1 Great Wisdom, 7/1 Funatfuntasia, 10/1 Chapter Nine, Love Pegasus, Monteriggioni, 12/1 Ebaziyan, 14/1 Grantsville, Western Rose, 16/1 Balakan, Lesoto Diamond, 20/1 Inquisitive Look, Silent Wind, 25/1 Tajweed,
Mourad is a name I know from somewhere but can't place it at the moment - price gapper for the all conquerin Mullins yard 1.25 to place in an iliquid market
SHORTLIST
Chance on Dinamo Zagreb away in the Cup? Only match odds and not in running - would have preferred in running as there should be goals
Bayern 1.26 - need the win and I always like to back teams with motivation to win and priced to win.Big concern is lack of confidence and home form, BUT poor home form could be halted with a win.
Real Madrid 1.14 to win looks good - motivated to win tonight, 1.11 over 1.5 goals -1.36 for over 2.5 goals would be a great tradeable bet this evening, even more so with Ronaldo returning(if he does this evening)
The clues are there - +2.5 goals handicap market and correct score 2 market. BUT fresh in my mind is the poor performance at shorter odds against Alcorcan. I would love to see Higuan play as well as he has goalscoring form.
130 LINGFIELD - Aeroplane should win with ease - chance at 1.32 the win market? Concern is the jockey as he has engineered miraculous unplaced runs in the past. 1.07 for the safer 3 places
325 CHEPSTOW - magot de grugy is good in conditions but only 2 places - 1.34 to place
ONE A DAY
Aeroplane is utra safe I would suggest as long as the jockey tries on him.The straight 8 and 3 places make this an ideal place only race albeit at bad odds.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.36 looks to have an excellent chance of coming in , or at least being tradeable with Real needing to win, and the possible return of Ronaldo. Real win market at 1.14 looks safer
Bayern should win this evening at 1.26 - Maccaibi's recent 1-0 defeats show they can be tough to break down but 3-0 was the recent head to head
SO, solid looks to be Aeroplane - yes crap odds and "um Betty" onboard-take the medicine and move on to tomorrow - no ground or obstacles concerns
BETTER ODDS - Real 1.14 win and 1.11 over 1.5 goals look very safe ,even better Real 1.36 over 2.5 goals to trade only(I would entertain over 2.5 goals if Ronaldo plays)
So take your pick and good luck
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