13/11

Late start again thanks to poor broadband reception
Job done yesterday - Ebraam I actually backed in the win market after 2nd, 3rd and 4th favs became non runners. It's all about flexibility. Not one a day but an opportunity not to miss

225 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 French Opera, 9/2 Tramantano, 13/2 Consigliere, 7/1 Song Of Songs, 8/1 Safari Adventures, 9/1 Beggars Cap, 10/1 Safari Journey, 16/1 Nikola, 20/1 Beherayn.

DIOMED VERDICT: FRENCH OPERA ran his best race over fences here and comes here on the back of a confidence-boosting win.

7 runners now and 3 places but only 12/1 the outsider tells you this is tight

300 CHeltenham
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Garde Champetre, 15/8 Silver Birch, 14/1 Sizing Australia, 16/1 Casadei, 20/1 Rimsky, 25/1 Heads Onthe Ground, Mr Big, Soleil Fix, 40/1 Lights Out, 66/1 Marath, Openide, 200/1 Lirain.

DIOMED VERDICT: GARDE CHAMPETRE has a fabulous record here and can confirm his superiority over Silver Birch in what looks a two-horse race.

eDNA bOLGER IS THE ONLY STOPPING POINT IN TESE CROSS COUNTRY races (apologies for bold caps) - and Garde Champetre looks the one to be with

325 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kinetix, 7/2 French Hollow, 8/1 Magistrate, Red Hot Desert, Starburst, Sure Fire, 33/1 Alfies Express, Dance Gdansk, Stardust Memories, 50/1 Brahms And Mist, Supplementary.

DIOMED VERDICT: KINETIX has consistently produced enough to suggest she can belatedly get off the mark at this level.

Consistently placed fav 1.19

FOOtball
bELgium u19 v andorra - should be straightforward and 1.06 tells you as much. NOT in running and only 2 markets
Netherlandsu21 v Leichtenstein u21
1.02 to win means look elsewhere
1.1 half time ( but illiquid market)
1.19 over 2.5 goals ( again illiquid market)
and in running
san marino under 19 v Ireland u19 - 1.15 - again not in running and no market forces as yet
BUT San MArino, Leichtenstein, Andorra et al are all opposable by default

ONE A DAY SHORTLIST
Well it's simply Garde Champetre for me under Nina Carberry for Edna Bolger. 1.2 to place tells you all in such a big field over the cross country course
Backing Garde and Silver Birch to £100 stakes produces a £37 profit.
I would expect goals in the Netherlands v Leichtenstein game so over 2.5 goals looks a big price despite the illiquid market
Kinetix looks ultra consistent
But I will stick with Garde Champetre here -there's always the concern of a fall but you oppose Edna Bolger over the Cheltenham and Punchestown cross country courses at your peril
More rock solid if jumps makes you squeamish would be Netherlands to be winning at half time or over 2.5 goals