No official bet yesterday. Godolphin chipped in with 2 winners from 2 again so if you're feeling speculative then follow this red hot yard
Quiet day again today by the look of it and slow broadband means I'll miss the early races but they are poor.
150 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Vegas Palace, 9/4 Brigadoon, Master Leon, 25/1 Tealing.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VEGAS PALACE, having proved herself on this surface, is taken to beat Master Leon. |
Another probability race here with Vegas Palace now odds on. 3 horses and 2 places. Yesterday's probability race saw the 25/1 3rd fav showing 16/1 in the live market -a possible market mover so I left that race alone
This one has those magic words " likely to be hard to beat", is proven on the surface and has placed twice
220 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Angie´s Nap, 7/2 Zelos Dream, 4/1 Jack Luey, 7/1 Prettiest Star, 10/1 Lord Victor, 14/1 Avec Moi, Micky´s Bird, 50/1 Lady Bucket, Nidamar, Selina Rio.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ANGIE'S NAP is thriving at present and can complete a Fibresand four-timer. |
On a 4 timer and we know that it is hard to keep winning ( unless you're Zenyatta that is)
A lowly seller on the all weather and backed into 11/10 so fancied. The market shows only 3 under 12/1 and we must decide whether Angie will continue the fine form or bomb out 1.2 to place
240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Australia Day, 5/1 Saltagioo, 11/2 Slate Gem, 8/1 Consulate, 9/1 Don´t Panic, 12/1 Scandal, 25/1 Goose Green, 40/1 Byblos, 66/1 Uig.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for AUSTRALIA DAY to get back on track. |
Price gapper here and significantly 1/2 in the live betting showing big support today. Dropped in grade for this confidence booster after a fall in class 1 company
9 runners and 3 are 50/1 or bigger leaving 6 fighting for 3 places. Will the fall have knocked his confidence? Was the fall due to bad jumping? In any case, the market is very much with this one 1.13 to place
300 LUDLOW
| DIOMED VERDICT: FIRST POINT, who went from strength to strength in the latest campaign over hurdles, looks a safer bet than Noble Request. |
Interesting race this - now 7 runners but still 3 places and this looks to be dominated by the front 2 with 2 solid jockeys onboard. Faith in First point - now 11/10? 1.16
520 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ebraam, 11/2 Misaro, 8/1 Rosie Says No, 10/1 Swinbrook, Thunder Bay, 12/1 Equinine, 14/1 Trimlestown, 25/1 One More Round, 33/1 Battimoore, Deckchair, 50/1 Mr Funshine, Rainbow Above You, Steel Blue.
| DIOMED VERDICT: EBRAAM (nap) is hard to oppose in a race lacking strength in depth. |
Trigger words " hard to oppose" and "likely to be hard to beat" instill enthusiasm in this price gapper albeit in a claimer - and I don't like betting in claimers
550 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Nafura, 9/2 House Red, 5/1 Duty And Destiny, 6/1 If I Were A Boy, 8/1 Anaya, 10/1 Merchant Of Medici, Pastello, 12/1 Sounds Of Thunder, 33/1 Emma Dora.
| DIOMED VERDICT: DUTY AND DESTINY might well be on a good mark and is taken to make her nursery debut a winning one. |
Guess what? yes Godolphin fav now 10/11 in places and really they have been booting them home with amazing regularity
620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Naseehah, 11/2 Thunderball, 6/1 Arizona John, 13/2 Barliffey, 8/1 Snow Dancer, 10/1 Just Bond, Wikaala, 16/1 Brouhaha, 20/1 Becuille.
| DIOMED VERDICT: JUST BOND's last two runs have promised a return to winning ways sooner rather than later and he can extend his good course record (six wins). |
Another Godolphin fav in a 7 runner race ( 3 places) in Naseehah
FOOTY
4pm U.A.E. v Man City - 1.99 - fulfilling sponsorship obligations in a game Sparky would rather not play. Expect fringe players given the international break? Goals perhaps here ?
SHORTLIST
150 STHL - Vegas Palace 1.18 to place in this maiden looks worthy of support not to get beaten by 2 in a 4 horse race ( one of which is 25/1) Proven on the surface and 2nd of 6 and 3rd of 16 is proven placed form.
We cannot discount the other 2 likely to play a part and this is a race where we play the probabilities.
240 TAUNTON - Australia day is 1.13 to place here -do we place confidence in the obvious positive market vibes here and conveniently discount the fall last time? I have said it before - when the betting forecast price is much reduced in the live market, this is generally a good sign
300 LUDLOW - First point is the clear fancy in the place market at 1.16. This is a 7 horse race with 2 horses at 100/1 or bigger leaving 5 horses running for 3 places so faith in Geraghty here and the horse not falling
520 WOLVES - Ebraam is 1.1 to place at time of writing (this may change) - this is a bit skinny for a biggish field claimer, but he is one of my " hard to beat" selections so is respected
Mention must be made for Godolphin - 2 more winners yesterday carried on the amazing run and they have 2 runners ( highlighted above) so if you fancy better odds, then place back these
ONE A DAY
In a day in stark contrast with yesterday ,we have a lot of decent looking horse opportunities. I am leaving the tennsi alone - it's great for trading but not betting ( for example I laid Almagro at 1.02 and Nadal saved 5 match points yesterday and backed at 1.22 for an instant £40 profit!!)
Time order for me today. Although I hate maiden races, the probability that Vegas Palace will effectively get beaten by 1 horse ( we are discounting the 25/1 shot) in a perceived 3 horse race, when already placed twice and having been proven on the surface, is small enough to get involved.
If you prefer 3 places ( and I know some avoid maiden races) then I would focus on the " hard to beat" contenders today( one of which is my choice above) - this being Ebraam
But fingers crossed Vegas Palace finishes first or 2nd
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