4/11

Went to plan! Real scored and AC Milan scored for over 1.5 goals. Royal Charm won as expected and I suppose if the noises from the markets is strong, DESPITE HEAVY GROUND, then the market can be relied upon
110 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Burj Nahar, 5/1 Gay Mirage, Salvation, 13/2 Molon Labe, 7/1 Lutine Charlie, 14/1 Ashbrittle, Welcome Bounty, 16/1 Ticket To Paradise, 20/1 Head Hunted, 25/1 Rock The Stars, 33/1 Ildiko, 40/1 Bollin Julie, 50/1 A P Ling, 66/1 Priestley, Straversjoy,

DIOMED VERDICT: Molon Labe, who had backend Group entries and is progressing along the right lines, could make his experience tell, but BURJ NAHAR is taken to maintain Godolphin's startling run of late-season form with juveniles

Deja vu (again!!) Godolphin fav well supported but debutant in a biggish field maiden 10/11 - - - 8/1 in the live market 1.33 to place- again the market is strong on this one but ,for me, relying on a 2 year old debutant to perform in soft ground on his first run is asking a lot, regardless of ability. It's the ability to handle the ground that is key


215 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Alexandros, 4/1 Young Pretender, 8/1 General Eliott, Plum Pudding, Smokey Oakey, 40/1 European Dream, 100/1 Pawan.

DIOMED VERDICT: If ALEXANDROS is back to the form of his Lockinge second he ought to be too strong for stablemate Young Pretender.

Godolphin 1 -2 in the betting - concern Alexandros was lame when last seen out . Soft ground proven though but only 2 places here 1.24 and 1.81 to place. Clear preference in the market for Alexandros here but only 2 places ( regardless of these being Godolphin runners)

230 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Straw Bear, 5/4 Somersby, 8/1 Kanad, 12/1 Slew Charm, 40/1 Olympian Boy.

0/

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks very close to being a match between last season's leading novice hurdler Somersby and former high-class hurdler STRAW BEAR, with narrow preference for the latter.

2 miles means less chance of surprising incidents. One clear outsider makes this a 50/50 race with 2 class hurdlers taking on chase fences and 2 places with 4 potential runners of interest 1.37 and 1.23 in an illiquid market for the front 2 here Both not run for some time, both debutants over chase fences. Market prefers Somersby. Any involvement here from a place only perspective should presume this race will be Somersby v Straw bear

620 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mutafajer, 7/2 Lago Indiano, 5/1 Forest Crown, 8/1 Key Light, 12/1 Welsh Artist, 14/1 Rose Aurora, She´s My Rock, 16/1 Young Simon, 66/1 Farmers Dream.

DIOMED VERDICT: Lago Indiano and Forest Crown should both be winning soon but MUTAFAJER could be hard to beat.

Only 3 under 20/1 in the live betting and another Godolphin fancy heading the market. At least we have 3 places here and no ground concerns. 1.16 to place

530 -Rubin Kazan v Barca - Barca still favs here despite the brass monkeys weather. A must win for a club expected to win , preference for goals bet again in order to have both teams playing for us given the weather conditions 1.28 over 1.5 goals. It is the weather that is the concern with Barca this evening. Can they handle sub zero?

745 - Arse v AZ - the goal kings of the Premier League return home and there must be, erm, goals in this one! 1.2 for over 1.5 goals is, again, very enticing given Arsenal's record. The fact there is a market for +2.5 goals to AZ suggests there's goals in them there hills! 1.19 for the straight back of Arsenal

745 - Fiorentina v Debrecen - look at Zurich outclassed last night for an idea of what may befall Debrecen this evening - exactly the same prices as the Arsenal game for the markets. I would suspect Debrecen will be easier to score against than AZ Alkmaar

SHORTLIST
Again, it is a question of yur faith in red hot Godolphin, more so with the soft ground.

230 WARWICK would be my first choice to consider with 2 top quality novice hurdlers tackling the chase fences after a lay off. Assumption is this will be fought out between these 2

620 KEMPTON - looks the best prospect for me today from the horse racing Mutafajer seems to only have a few rivals for the win market, making the likelihood of a place a lot easier. Note race is off in 6 hours time, so really it is better to consult the market nearer the off

Arsenal = goals ,all things being equal, and over 1.5 goals is very enticing indeed and includes both sides

Fiorentina straight back or over 1.5 goals - Debrecen should be out of their depth here

ONE A DAY
Ground concerns are most offputting, regardless of the type of form a red hot stable has been in.
The 620 Kempton would be my race of choice today for place only purposes, but I will put my one a day faith in there being goals at the Emirates this evening. Over 1.5 goals again the bet and the all important tradeable option too makes this more enticing.