1/11

No log yesterday as I had a friend over and had to do the touristy thing and it would have been a bit rude to ask them to disappear for an hour or so while I wrote the football and one a day blogs!
Just looking at the football, there were plenty of opportunities - swine flu hit Blackburn and Bolton should have been opposed, Real Madrid were on a mission to save their manager in a must win, and PSV the eyecatchers at the prices ( albeit with a 1-0 win ).
Porto the previous evening was a great over 1.5 goal bet with Belenenses scoring first ( great enhanced bet too) - game ended 1-1 which again shows that over 1.5 goal betting can be less troublesome than the straight win back and would have been a good bet in the Barca match BUT with Barca generally scoring first, a trade of the lower match odds would have sufficed.
I didn't see the horse racing at all yesterday.

120 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Astral Flower, Sowaylm, 5/1 Ebony Boom, New Innocence, 11/2 Perceptive, 10/1 Tom Wade, 14/1 Mazamorra, Pleasant Way, 25/1 Highland Bridge, Jinto, 66/1 Empress Leizu, Tumbled Again.

DIOMED VERDICT: Newcomers SOWAYLM and Astral Flower are the two against the field in a race where those with experience look beatable.

With Frankie Dettori winning 6 on the trot for Godolphin, it is a bit of a negative not to see him onboard Sowaylm -Durcan takes the ride, but with the way Godolphin have been the latter end of the flat season, it is hard to oppose them.

205 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Killyglen, 4/1 Knockara Beau, 9/2 Auroras Encore, 13/2 Oumeyade, 8/1 Chief Dan George, 10/1 Watch My Back, 14/1 Crocodiles Rock, 25/1 Camden George, 200/1 The Green Hat.

DIOMED VERDICT: The weight concession of 16lb to promising KNOCKARA BEAU, who was of similar ability over hurdles, might just be beyond smart Killyglen. Auroras Encore is another promising type worth considering in an absorbing contest.

Now odds on shot under McCoy in this chase

330 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Barnhill Brownie, 9/4 Beautiful Vision, 11/4 Wychwoods Legend, 20/1 Pelo Du Bief, 25/1 Feeling Peckish, 33/1 Royal Gunner.

DIOMED VERDICT: The ground will be as quick as BARNHILL BROWNIE wants it but he still looks interesting now switched to fences.

A probability race where 3 should be fighting out for 2 places but the 3 cannot really be split in the market

FOOTBALL

11:30

Ajax vs Feyenoord

1/2

I would look to goals here in a clash of 2 of the stronger Dutch sides - there's goals in Ajax after a confidence booster against AZ Alkmaar. Feyenoord could only manage a 1-0 last time out but this signals that both teams can score.
12:00 Chernomorets vs Shakhtar
1/6 away from home - remember though if it's not in running and the hot favs score first as expected, we have no ability to manage our positions and get out as early as possible incase there is a draw
Last 3 aways have been draws for Shaktar ( a sequence that they are priced to end today, being 1/6 on to win?) A worrying stat though for a game not in running.
12:45 Dundee United vs Rangers
5/6 away from home signals a tough afternoon for out of form Rangers Dundee United drew 1-1 with Celtic and both Dundee United and Rangers are drawing far too often (in fact this has demoted Rangers to 3rd in the league - unthinkable)
Draw anyone?
A game I would avoid as could so easily be a 0-0 draw as both teams have drawn 4 times in 9 games

14:00

Galatasaray vs Sivasspor

1/4

Gala have failed to score 3 or more goals only once a home this season. Sivasspor are in poor form, and poor away form. We can guage a likely scoreline by looking at their 3-0 away defeat at Fenerbahch. Expect a similar scoreline this afternoon, all things being equal ( ie no adverse injuries to Gala) One of the more likelier bets today in a poor Sunday

15:00

Spain Youth vs Malawi Youth

1/4

Research needed to determine if this is a dead rubber and if the Spanish kids have already qualified
A quick mention for City at 4/5 away to Brum.Brum keep things tight and City are coming off the back of 3 consecutive draws. They have the ability to concede goals but it is a difficult match to get an angle on

SHORTLIST
Nothing grabs me at all today
Blind faith in Godolphin has been amply rewarded with a wheelbarrow required to take winnings away ,but generally the jockey has been a certain L Dettori. They have a debutant in the 120 Lingfield and their success is based on lowering their target races considerably and putting up generally very well bred horses in races where their pedigree indicates they are a class apart. Sometime 4 and 5 length victories recently attest to this.
Sowalym is 1.37 to place and if taken by Godolphin could be a good price, although I suspect a number of others are aware of Godolphin's recent record and the price is probably unnaturally low
Of the football matches, the only game of interest for me ( put it this way - the game with the least niggles !!) is the Galatasary game. Only once have they failed to score 3 or more at home, and they are playing 3rd from bottom team who have lost all bar one drawn match away from home.
The key stat for me is that Fenerbache ( who I would equate closely with Gala) won 3-0 at home against Sivasspor - marry that with the fact Gala have scored 3 or more at home on all bar one occasion, and we can, I hope, predict a goal or 2 from the home side.
1.31 to win, and the bet is weakened by the fact this is ,for some reason, not in running. No over 1.5 goal market is disappointing and pretty much bangs the nail in the coffin regarding my interest in proceedings today.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.44 in the Young Boys v Luzern game, and considering the Young Boys have only failed to get overs twice this term, and you realise this short price is short for a reason. Warning though, a few games have a 2-1 scoreline and this assumes then, faith in the opposition scoring on - BUT again not in running.

CONCLUSION - a day to leave alone given the fancies are not in running, and the horse racing is not appealing from a place only perspective. Non runners may change the complexion of some races. If you are taken by Godolphin then there's a 1.37 available on a debutant to keep the exceptional Godolphin run going.
NO BET DAY FOR ME TODAY