3/11

Very late today - no electricity in my area and then no broadband -broadband ok now and doing this on laptop off a car battery!
Soft at Catterick and Heavy at Exeter makes a bad day even worse for punters!
You'll read lines like " major player if handling this ground" today which tells all
230 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Royal Charm, 4/1 Robo, 10/1 General Kutuzov, 11/1 Four Strong Winds, 12/1 Wine ´n Dine, 14/1 Shaking Hands, 25/1 Mysortofman, 28/1 Power Pack Jack, 50/1 Uig, 66/1 Canshebemine.

DIOMED VERDICT: Ready preference is for ROYAL CHARM, who sets a useful, clear standard on his good second in a better race than this at Sandown in February. He can make it a third win in this race in four years for Paul Nicholls.

Now 1/3 so the market thinks heavy ground will be no great burden here for another Nicholls horse

Football
Man Utd 1.45 to win - tend to get going in 2nd half and what impact will the absence of Shrek and Berba have? I'm not too taken with putting my faith in Owen up front
Milan v Real Madrid - 1.24 over 1.5 goals - Real on a revenge mission and goals going in despite Ronaldo's absence.MOTIVATION - the manager has been given 2 games to save his job - Getafe at the weekend and this one so I expect attacking football and ,of course ,poor defence to ensure over 1.5 goals. Tradeable as well
Marseilles v Zurich - 1.34 - like Debrecen , Zurich shoud be out of their depth, and again over 1.5 goals covers any shock Zurich goals
SWISS TENNIS - Djokovic 1.09 today should beat Beck
SHORTLIST
230 EXETER - Royal Charm 1.13 to place and 1.35 to win. The market expects no problems regarding heavy ground for this one - has run good to soft and soft but NOT heavy and coming off an absence -last ran Feb 09. Do we follow market confidence here blindly?
Football wise, Milan v Real Madrid over 1.5 goals at 1.25 is surprisingly big, but given motivation by Real to get some revenge, manager must win, and 3-2 last time, AND dodgy Real rearguard, we should get a great run for our money
Ditto Marseilles v Zurich - over 1.5 goals is 1.25 but may be reliant on Marseilles scoring 2 unless Zurich can shock again ( and to be fair they have found the onion bag)
ONE A DAY
I am loathe to take 1.13 about a horse coming back from an absence and running in heavy ground today so will steer towards to football and Madrid/Milan over 1.5 goals at 1.25. The motivation is there, the leaky defense and the ability for both sides to score is there too. An early goal will signify a trade for me in this to lock in profit.
Good luck,and here's hoping I get my electricity back some time soon!