24/11

Quiet day for me yesterday on the horses , and Royal Collonges not placing proved why I didn't really get involved yesterday Djokovic's price took a very long time to break the pre match odds of 1.45 but eventually did. Enhanced bet of course for anyone retaining faith in Novak after losing the first set.
Early races at Southwell hold no interest
1250 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Master Fong, 7/2 Monsieur Jourdain, 5/1 First Bay, 7/1 Veronicas Boy, 10/1 Venture Capitalist, 12/1 Lakeman, 14/1 Toujours Souriante, 20/1 Royal Premium, 33/1 Gwyre, 50/1 Hydrant.

DIOMED VERDICT: MASTER FONG looks the one to be with on this ground.

Again ground a concern today. The paper says soft but I think it may be heavier. MAster Fong has ran in soft last 2 races and only 3 under 10/1 1.2 to place

120 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Knockavilla, 2/1 Riguez Dancer, 8/1 Karmadice, 12/1 April San, 16/1 Bear Witness, The Thirsty Bricky, 66/1 Chief Lady Olwyn, 100/1 The Green Hat.

DIOMED VERDICT: KNOCKAVILLA made a promising start to chasing when runner-up to the very useful Noble Alan at Hexham and can build on that experience. Riguez Dancer is feared most.

Ground a concern with the market leader having run recently on ony good. Good horse though Knockavilla 1.13 to place

I'm leaving Lingfield aone with heavy ground

FOOTBALL
Arsenal v Standard - 1.3 - a bit short without Van Persie but Belgian league is hardly the PREMIERSHIP
Barca v Inter Milan - 1.37 over 1.5 goals - the Champions league minus Barca - who'd have thunk it!! A mini injury crisis with swine flu hitting a few and Ibra out and he has been superb, but Pedro and Bojan are excellent replacements.
Debrecen v Liverpool - 1.33 - the whipping boys are way out of their depth ( and so are Debrecen - only joking!!) Liverpool should win easily shouldn't they but made a pigs ear out of the home leg against this lot
Leeds v L Orient - 1.34 - at home and 1/3 to actually win their league. NOT IN RUNNING
SHORTLIST

120 SEDGEFIELD - Knockavilla looks the best of the horses for pacing today.
With heavy ground at Lingfield and Gowran Park, it will pay those with time and discipine to quickly look through the market pricniples with heavy form.
Harouet was a good example which I found yesterday - the only horse in that raace with soft/ heavy form and won for Paul Nicholls
Arsenal must have a good chance of winning today at 1.3 and may be worth the risk. Dangers? Only need a point and we see time and time again how teams invariably manage to get what they need and little more. No Van Persie and he is a class act, but then Standard are not in the most competitive league in Belgium

ONE A DAY
WHenever I see soft and heavy mixed with jumping, well it simply puts me off, so I think I will place my faith in Arsenal at 1.3 and hope they score first so I can trade out. Barca v Inter looks mouth watering and Barca have found it difficult to score at present. Over 1.5 goals you would think would have a chance of coming in, but Inter can be adept , especially away from home, of shutting a team out

So it's the Arse tonight - not quite a Chelsea v Wolves solid bet but ,with trading in mind, we should get a good chance of the bet coming in. Leaving the horses alone today but hope to pick something off as my one a day in running ( I have sky now so can follow the racing)