110 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Get Me Out Of Here, 5/1 Pure Faith, 13/2 Walamo, 12/1 Alesandro Mantegna, No More Whispers, 25/1 Monsieur Cadou.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE has every chance of defying a penalty earned when beating Pure Faith easily at Worcester. |
Now 1/2 for Get me out with McCoy who loves Ffos Las 1.2 to place and only 2 places and a penalty to carry - not quite in Norwich City rock solid territory is it?
120 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Mille Chief, 7/2 Warrior One, 9/2 Dark Oasis, 13/2 Lakeman, 8/1 Bocamix, 14/1 Comprimario, Heredias, 16/1 Sergeant Pink, 20/1 Whispering Spirit, 40/1 King´s Counsel, Nayessence, Richo, 66/1 Bahamian Ceilidh, Gold Maha, Reel Bluff.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MILLE CHIEF is an intriguing recruit to hurdling. His connections had plenty of success with the very smart Walkon, who had been bought out of the same French yard, in juvenile hurdles last season. |
Price gapper here and odds on but a complete unknown to hurdles. Yard/Jockey rep goes before any proven ability 1.27 to place - wins at a canter or underperforms - it's the chance you take - is the market an accurate reflection of this horse's chances or is the market influenced by King/Thornton combination
155 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Operation Houdini, 10/1 Rebel Chief, 12/1 Casey Supreme, The Flying Dustman, Theribtickler, West Ship Master, 14/1 Duroob, Halfback, Polar Call, Seefin Dancer, 16/1 Equation, Grey Area, Red Scally, Undergraduate, 20/1 Bold Fencer, Ifyoucouldseemenow, King Vic, Uncommited, 25/1 Cochise, El Tuco, Global Position, Iwilltellyouwhen, Kerzak, Killeaney, 33/1 Derrycrew, Roadmaker, 50/1 Bat Out Of Hell, Leonardo Corona, Thirsty Tommy.
Now that's some price gap but this is a handicap hurdle in Ireland - at least we'll have 4 places 1.48 to place but illiquid market
200 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Bureaucrat, 5/1 Little Firecracker, 8/1 Ballabrook, 20/1 Ruling Reef, 40/1 William Weazle, 66/1 Jetlag, Simplyirresistible.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BUREAUCRAT should outclass his rivals. |
Conditional jockeys selling hurdle. YIKES. But they say the fav is a class above. He needs to be having unseated and fallen in 2 of his last 3. 2 places too -1/2 in the live market and little is 3/1-should involve 3 horses so it's pretty much a probability race 1.18 to place - not quite the 1/3 in the betting forecast - just over 1/2 on Betfair, but if we can assume this will be a race of 3 horses then a horse taking a huge drop in class should be competitive? BUT in a selling hurdle for a reason!!
240 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Morning Supreme, 9/2 Kilflora, 8/1 Fly Home Cassy, Split Ear, 14/1 Dream Home, 16/1 Keep Movin, Our Symphony, Thesulkyoflanagan, 20/1 Brave Heart, Cordless, Leader Bobby, Lee´s Cross, Midnight Penny, Therangersdaughter, 25/1 Lady Laragh, The Flying Scholar, 33/1 Alittlealexandrite, Some Captain,
Walsh/Mullins - soft ground a slight concern 1.2 to place
305 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Quideo De Touzaine, 7/1 Jau, 8/1 Timeshift, 10/1 Filippo Lippi, 12/1 Court Red Handed, Noble Aran, 14/1 Ballyoliver, The Disengager, 16/1 Viking Blond, 20/1 Saulty Max, 50/1 Deepwood Fox, Kelly´s Quest,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Impressive bumper winner QUIDEO DE TOUZAINE is fancied to make a successful switch to hurdles here. |
Another price gapper for Nicholls but no Walsh as he is in Ireland. Newcomer to hurdles so any bet based on hope the horse is well schooled 1.32 to place
335 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 The Jigsaw Man, 3/1 Ravethebrave, 14/1 Calusa Shadow, Peppertree Lane, 20/1 Waldenstroem, Zaif, 33/1 Azulada Bay, 66/1 Brookfieldshector, 100/1 Riverbank Ruby.
| DIOMED VERDICT: THE JIGSAW MAN is a useful type and can win again. |
4 over 33/1 can hopefully be discounted leaving 5 fighting for 3 places - peppertree lane the market mover 1.11 to place - they fancy this one in the market
FOOTY
1245 - Falkirk v Celtic 1/3 away - what is interesting is the 11/1 about Falkirk at Ladbrokes - all but dismissed
Only beaten by Rangers this season, despite seemingly poor form.FAlkirk beaten 4-1 by Rangers admittedly away to Rangers but this again should serve as a guide as to what Celtic should be capable of. Falkirk have not won this season, and have drawn 2 at home 0-0 and lost 2 at home 3-1.
130 - Den Haag v PSV- 1.43 away - psv unbeaten away from home, and Den Haag have lost 1-0 to 2 top 5 sides so possibility they will keep it tight against PSV
145 - Zenit St Petersburg v Terek Grozni
1.24 at home - Zenit scoring at least 2 at home with regularity and Terek are losing away so first goal for Zenit could be te call
6pm - Valencia v Zaragoza 1.51
3 draws at home and a hope this sequence will end today ( Man City nearly broke their draw sequence while 3-2 up) Zaragoza have scored in all away games and lost all bar one draw. Against top sides they have been well beaten. Valencia priced to end their draw sequence at home tonight - 1.21 over 1.5 goals involves both sides - we have seen Zaragoza can score away from home regularly so the hope is this continues
745 - Inter v Roma - you all know the drill by now. Do not back against Inter at home until the 123 run unbeaten record of Mourinho's ends.Laying ROMA at 8 is the same as backing a 1.13 shot and is worthy of support until the very very strong home stat for Mourinho is broken - 3 draws, one win and one loss away - a draw is ideal and is covered by the lay of Roma
SHORTLIST
200 HEREFORD - you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to note this one - we can call it a probability bet if the 4 horses 20/1 or bigger can be discounted - leaving 3 fighting for 2 places
NEGATIVES
-conditional jockeys
-selling hurdle
-Bureaucrat's recent form -U5F - shocking stuff -whenever you see letters in the form column you know you're in trouble
POSITIVES - as a 1/2 shot, the other horses must be "shoite" as they say in IReland, so where is the opposition. Little Firecracker is ultra consistent placer
335 HEREFORD - interesting betting forecast with only 2 under 14/1 the ones to concentrate on.Looks a 5 runner affair in the live market with peppertree now 7/1 and Zaif 16/1
INTER V ROMA - Lay Roma at 8 for fixed liability of £100 pays 1.13 equivalent back odds and it's worth opposing away teams at Inter until Jose's immense home record ends
ONE A DAY
A day full of 2 the place races, and horses of "potential" and little proven form. My one a day is a lay of Roma at 8 in the hope the Mourinho home record remains - we have stats on our side so fingers crossed.
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