Mutafajer was 2nd at Kempton so placed for my strongest horse bet yesterday.
Please excuse the lateness-again the broadband has gone inexplicably slow these past few days and I am powerless to speed it up at present
1205 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Karasiyra, 3/1 Remember When, 7/1 Endless Expanse, 10/1 Ice Empress, King´s Vintage, Takaliyda, 12/1 Frenka, 14/1 Bea Remembered, Siul Alainn, 16/1 Fortuna´s Blade, 20/1 Hen Night, Magical Memoir, New Atalanta, Reach The Stars, 25/1 Red Red Ruby, Restless Kala, 33/1 Great White Rover, Mazellie,
Heavy ground and v now odds on for Sea the stars jockey and trainer. As argued yesterday, does maret strength signify the horse can handle heavy? Is a 2 year old though and Ballydoyle and Weld/Smullen in opposition 1.24 to place
140 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rayeni, 9/2 Rock And Roll Kid, 5/1 Libano, 6/1 Luisant, 7/1 Pollen, 8/1 Girouette, 10/1 Le Cadre Noir, 12/1 Aahaykid, Six Of Hearts, 14/1 Alexander Youth, Scarlet O´Hara, 20/1 Good Time Sue, 33/1 Trinity Scholar, 50/1 King´s Bastion.
Rayeni returns, and typical of Irish horses, is well prepared for soft and heavy going. A listed race so very competitive but Mick Kinane rarely disappoints on fancies 1.26 to place
330 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Master Lightfoot, 2/1 Quasi Congaree, 100/30 Ajjaadd, 12/1 Rightcar Dominic, 20/1 Spinning Bailiwick, 25/1 Tightrope, 33/1 Dancing Again, 66/1 Across The Sands, Riggs.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MASTER LIGHTFOOT is taken to beat Quasi Congaree in an uncompetitive maiden. |
5 furlong maidens rarely reach my shortlist, but only 3 are under 12/1 here, 3 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place - Master Lightfoot has experience on all weather which is good and the past 7's in the form were in handicap company. Looks like connections want a win here? 1.2 to place
A difficult day today for the horses. Will heavy ground in Ireland mean that the races become more of a level playing field, or do we rely on the market as having factored ground conditions into the price?
FOOTBALL
2 on the trot so far at better odds usually than we'd get for horses, so a good look at Europa league
530 - Spain U19 v Wales U19
1.17 for the Spaniards here. Their under 17 colleagues face the might of, erm, Burkino faso and are 1.36-surely this is a mismatch regardless of age?
NOT IN RUNNING
6pm - Nigeria U17 v New Zealand U17
1.35- if the youth are as bad as the senior squad, this should be easy for the nippers
6pm - Sp Lisbon v Ventspils
1.27 and home advantage should ensure a win? IN PLAY
805pm - Toulouse v Shakhtar
Always factor in Shaktar because we know immediately that they take this competition extremely seriously - scored 4 at home against Toulouse.
805pm - W Bremen v Austria Vienna
1.31 - goals the main course as per usual in a Werder game?
Must win for Ze Germans here as this should guarantee they enter the knockout phase
1.17 over 1.5 goals after a 2-2 draw in Vienna
SHORTLIST
140 LEOP - Kinane/Oxx's Rayeni is familiar wit the ground - course and distance winner - 4/5 - - - -6/1 in the live market 14 runner listed event in heavy ground.
330 LING - Mister Lightfoot should be competitive here if the market is accurate. 5 furlong maidens not top of my list though - tardy starts can be punished.
530pm - Spanish under 19's look to have the edge over their Weslh colleagues here BUT NOT IN RUNNING , and as we have seen before, Spain could score the first goal and still draw and in a tradeable game, this counts as a winning bet for me
805pm- faith in Werder here at 1.17 for over 1.5 goals? If you wanted a more speculative bet, the 12 goals in 3 games Shaktar's goal market is a little more competitive. Motivation ,though, is there for Werder and over 1.5 goals have a good chance given Austria Vienna scored twice against Werder.
ONE A DAY
Heavy ground is a concern despite the market showing it should not affect Rayeni. So for the 3rd day, I will personally chance Werder v Austria Vienna over 1.5 goals at 1.17 in a tradeable game
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