23/11

No blog yesterday but Chelsea managed by the odd goal in 4 on Saturday. 3 enhanced bets yesterday. How about Sporting Lisbon (1/10 shots) going a goal down at half time and backable at over evens ( they went on to win 4-1), or Panathanaikos 1-0 down at home AND with the opponents losing a player while 1-0 up, eventually equalising, or Roger Federer one set down and backable at over evens ( I backed him at 1.4 alas when broken early in the 1st set so had a bit of a long wait!)
Plenty of one a day opportunities yesterday with China v Lebanon sticking in my mind, Sporting Lisbon, Ajax, PSV to name but a few. The horse racing was extremely difficult and I chose a good day to leave that arena alone.
Incidentally, readers of the soccer blog would have seen my effort at a correct score treble perm, and it came in with 4-0 Chelsea, 3-0 Rangers, and 1-1 Burnley and Villa. Now more fool me for not doing it for real because the treble payout would have been something like 10/1 , 10/1 and 8/1 , or £968 to a £1 treble stake ( I would have done it as a permutation of 3 scores in each match ) - not bad eh! This was my first try at perming correct scores and it looks like an exercise worth following, as long as you chose those games and teams who are most readable and have definable goal scoring habits.
Today sees all jumps and while the weather is bad, and the horses are being tried over different obstacles, then caution is advised ( like yesterday) Surprising not to see Mr McCoy at Ffos Las - he is the winningmost jockey there and loves the place - he's at Kempton
1220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Candy Creek, 5/1 Aohna, On Borrowed Wings, 7/1 Fidelis, 20/1 Quipe Me Posted, 33/1 Forest Rhythm, Know Your Place, 50/1 Blazing Sun.

DIOMED VERDICT: A suitable opening for last year's smart bumper performer CANDY CREEK to make a winning start over hurdles.

The straight 8 here and 3 at 33/1 or bigger hopefully reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place. McCoy on the jolly for Henderson and another debutant. Quipe me posted a possible mover into 14/1 in places. 1.09 to place is very stingy but I do like it when the betting forecast price is considerably shorter in the live betting (now 1/2)

1230 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Royal Collonges, 11/4 Balnahinch, 11/2 Abbevillian, 8/1 Wayward Prince, 10/1 Truckers Hall, 14/1 Babysitter, 33/1 Llama Farmer, 80/1 Brookfiel
dshector, 100/1 Passive Interest, Secret Gift.

DIOMED VERDICT: Balnahinch has just about the best form on offer but ROYAL COLLONGES, who is a half-brother to the stable's high-class staying chaser Neptune Collonges, will surely prove capable of better.

Walsh/Nicholls the predictable market leader here - has placed in a maiden hurdle 1.2 to place here in a 6 horse race realistically with 3 places - a distant 3rd in very soft on previous outing

Lots of sub 8 runner, 2 the place races this afternoon and we really need to be spot on with these, hence I have only concentrated on 3 the place races, where there is scope for error.

340 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Calzaghe, 13/2 Classical Rhythm, 8/1 Karasakal, 10/1 Regional Counsel, 12/1 Prince Broc, 14/1 Ashes Summer, Noun De La Thinte, Vertueux, 16/1 Isintshelovely, 20/1 Shinnecock Bay, Waarid, 25/1 Northern Lad, 33/1 Zen Factor, 50/1 Mistress Eva, Romney Marsh.

DIOMED VERDICT: bCALZAGHE, who still looks on a fair mark on both Flat and hurdles form despite the double penalty. If his recent exertions aren't taking their toll he is clearly the one to beat.

Well fancied on his last 2 outings and still a price gapper, but I feel winning will be a little more difficult on the hatrick bid, under a penalty, and with a few recent excursions, for Calzaghe, but will this stop him placing? 1.35 to place tells you there is a bit of unease over this one today

350 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Saindor, 6/1 Ackertac, 8/1 Dune Shine, Marlbrook Fox, 10/1 Everdon Brook, 14/1 Box Four, Master Cardor Visa, 20/1 Howlin At The Moon, 33/1 Dust In Time, 100/1 Driving Seat, Master Cospector.

DIOMED VERDICT: Easily the pick on form is SAINDOR who sets a decent standard for a race like this on his encouraging debut third at Aintree last month.

PRice gapper in this bumper where the market is king. Interesting move for Howlin at the moon into 14/1 as I write. 3 1/2 length 3rd in good ground. This is the last race of a soft ground meeting and that is the niggle. 1.25 to place

FOOTBALL
Preston v Newcastle the only game of interest today - 1.09 for one goal or more? It's a market I can't get really get an angle into.
TENNIS IN LONDON
1.45 for in form Djokovic is very enticing today against Davydenko - tradeable too if Djoko gets an early break of serve or wins the first set. I would not have this as a standalone bet, but would insist on trading and getting out for an equivalent 1.15 return, meaning 1.25 or thereabouts would ensure a green screen equivalent to 1.15
SHORTLIST
1220 KEMPTON - 1.09 to place is very short for a hurdles debutant even if it is McCoy for Henderson. BUT positives include jockey , 8 runner field and 3 over 33/1 reducing the competitive place only field to 5, 3 of whom will place. Another positive is Candy Creek's shortened price compared to betting forecast price.
1230 LUD - Walsh/Nicholls Royal Collonges is 1.2 to place, a relatively nice price
Novak Djokovic at 1.45 to win. Higher price than I would normally entertain, hence the insistance really on trading this and following in running.
ONE A DAY
Soft at Ludlow and good to soft at Kempton. I am not taken by the horses today - let's be honest, there is no Chelsea v Wolves solid type bet today is there? Nothing you can nail your colours to the mast. 1.09 is a tad short for a jumps debutant. At the prices Royal Collonges may be worth a gamble. My hope today is to look for non runners in the smaller fields which will hopefully create a good probability race. I am not going to be doing a one a day bet personally today and am happy to be patient .
Good luck if you find a bet