Quartano won yesterday, and guess who beat Ravi River ( who placed) - yes one of my market movers, Sir George, a classic 16/1 system bet down to 8/1 at the off and obviously gambled on
I endured the Danish football yesterday, and OB couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo. Still, for those with faith, they got the breakthrough and were backable at 2.5. Dire stuff though, but I was pleased with my analysis that they had problems at home, despite winning - all games have been v tight.
1250 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mobaasher, 11/2 Nom De Guerre, 13/2 Leac An Scail, Tisfreetdream, 11/1 Rude Not To, 25/1 Arctic Echo, 40/1 Pheidias.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MOBAASHER, who is rated 153 over hurdles and was campaigned in high-class company last term, should take plenty of beating with a clear round on his first try over fences. |
Another, like Quartano, with those words " should take plenty of beating" - only 2 places and yet another beginners chase. 1.31 to place
120 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Chamirey, 5/2 Lord Generous, 10/1 Alora Money, Calusa Shadow, 20/1 Chibuku, New Shuil, 33/1 Shahbash, 50/1 Quartz Dore.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CHAMIREY got off the mark over 2m4f at Chepstow last time and can follow up under a penalty back over this trip. |
THe straight 8 here, so one for the 3rd and 5th favs each way? Choc and McCoy on the front 2 and any choice to place back should assume that the race will involve these 2. 1.16 Chamiry the better fancied in the place market
200 LING
| DIOMED VERDICT: EBRAAM ran as well as he's ever done in Listed company here on his first outing for Mike Murphy and is the pick of the weights back in a claimer. |
Another shortie in a claimer, and if anyting like Aeroplane, will confidently place. Now 4/9 in the live market
Straight 8 reduced to 7 and hopefully 3 places - 1.17 to place BUT ONLY 2 PLACES despite originally being 8 runners
320 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Owen Glendower, 9/2 Double Expresso, 11/2 Habbie Simpson, 13/2 Club Class, 9/1 Kericho, Woodmore, 10/1 Madame Jasmine, 16/1 Great Esteem, 20/1 Harris Hawk, Starway To Heaven, 28/1 Distant Florin, 33/1 How U Doin, 40/1 Radical Bay, Reel Weld.
Price gapper in the live market, unraced and bumper debut - no obstacles. 4/6 - - - 8/1 in the live market is very eyecatching, but ,as ever with bumpers, the live market will reveal all. 1.16 to place but based on rumours and connections this early on
FOOTBALL
Huddersfield v Tranmere - 1.38 - off to soccerstats to see if we can justify backing at the price.
Unbeaten at home, won all bar 2 0-0 draws, so the right team can shut them out. Apart from those 2 games, never failed to score less than 2 at home.
Playing bottom side today who have lost all away bar a 1-0 win. Now one of Huddersfield's 0-0's came against 2nd from bottom and we see time and time again that bottom sides away generally park the bus, but can they keep out a home side who score 2 or more ?
Away side have lost 2-0 and 3-0 against top 5 sides ( of which Huddersfield is one) so this may be a guide as to the scoreline this evening, given Huddersfield tend to score 2 or more at home.
So 2-0 springs up a lot.
Tranmere is layable at 10.5 , equivalent of a 1.10 bet -could be the option - not in running
Notts county v Darlington - 1.32 - unbeaten at home but 4 of those games have been draws which does not augur well for backing a 1.32 side.
When they've won, though, it's been impressive
Darlo - not won away from home, and easily beaten away to top 8 sides ( of which Notts County is one)
Bottom of league (coincidentally like Tranmere) and Notts county price based on that.
Darlo confidence low after a home drubbing by Morecambe 4-0. Notts county price looks justified. Notts coming off a frustrating 6 draws in 8 matches and a loss away to Rotherham latest ( but Rotherham are 3rd in the league so this maybe expected)
Man Utd v Spurs - 1.3 over 1.5 goals ( tradeable) - meaningless cup game but a good chance for the nippers ( and let's face it Obertan and Macheda are not your usual nippers) to show their worth. Team news all important for Spuds too who have an enviable front line.
SHORTLIST
1250 STHL - Mobaasher ,like Quartano, fits into my hard to beat system -beginners chase again and only 2 places and if we continue backing debutants in chases then we will come unstuck soon - 1.31 to place tells you this is not nailed on, but another horse plying his hurdling trade in the very best company - moved stables now to Venetia Williams
120 STHL - 8 runners so excellent place only race - 2 are 50/1 or bigger , 2 are 16/1 and 20/1 , and Chamirey is the better fancied of the front 2. A 6 runner race and 3 places, so a good probability race - follow the place only money here? Dare we oppose Lord Generous under McCoy? We must assume that Lord generous and Chamirey will both finish in the top 3 if getting involved
200 LING - Ebraam - not 3 places despite original 8 runner field reduced to 7. 2 places now and 1.17 changes the complexion of this claimer - Barry Adams, 7lb claimer onboard today and I don't know anything about him -faith in the horse today - if backing for the place in a race such as this, we really have to be confident of a win
Notts county at 1.32 look the better of the 2 footy teams in the lower leagues -Darlo are terrible it would seem, and I am no lower league expert but Notts County for me have a better chance of collecting than Huddersfield. NOT IN RUNNING THOUGH
Elsewhere we can lay Tranmere at 10.5 which is the equivalent of a 1.09 shot
ONE A DAY
Between Mobaasher ( another hard to beat selection but just 2 places and a chase debutant) and Chamirey ( lowest place price o the 2 market principles and expected to be competitive under the penalty)
1.29 is very enticing for Mobaasher and if getting involved, I will trade this one for sure.
Chamirey appears in a top heavy market with Lord Generous so the hope is this will be a match up.
Chance on Mobaasher today but personally I will follow the bet and trade out if the 1.29 reduces considerably early
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