20/12

FOOTBALL
1230 - Hearts v Celtic - 1.61 - whenever you see the Old Firm priced up over 1.5 , then it generally tells us that this will be a tough old fixture. Celtic away have lost twice to Dundee United and Rangers 2-1 (both in the top 4) and drew 3-3 with Falkirk -a game they led and should not have lost.
Celtic have already beaten Hearts 2-1 at Hearts, and the expectation is that this will be hard fought and involve a single goal difference.
Hearts against the top 4 at home have lost 2-1 to Rangers ( another tight game!!) and 2 0-0's against Hibs and Dundee United. Again this brings up that word " tight".
Like Rangers yesterday, if they make the breakthrough they should secure the win. If playing this game, I would look to back Celtic and cover the 0-0 scoreline.

130pm Breda v Ajax - 1.57 - head to head this season an emphatic 6-0 Ajax win at home.
Ajax away have lost 3 times - twice against 1st and 2nd ( by a single goal margin) and once against 6th placed side.
Breda are 8th and away results against 7th and 9th are 4-2 and 4-0 wins for Ajax.
This hints at another torrid time for Breda who might want to stick with making beer!
Breda have only played 2 of the top 5 at home, losing 2-0 and drawing 0-0 and have lost all matches away to top 7 sides ( Ajax are 3rd)
Breda's home form can only be viewed against lower table sides they have played where they won 4 and drew 2
Although Breda lost away to Twente and PSV, the scoreline was 3-1 and this is a good guideline to Ajax's capabilities today.
50% of Breda's home games and 67% of Ajax's away games are over 2.5 goals, making an over 1.5 goal bet interesting - that's 1.17
I would only back Ajax with a view to trading out IF they scored first. They have scored 2 or more goals in all away games against sides below Breda in the league

2pm Juventus v Catania - 1.36 Juve - 3rd v bottom of the league. A tendency for Catania to keep things tight and then eventually succumb. Characterised by 2-1's against 2 of the top 4 sides they have played away from home.
Again looks likely to be a hard fought eventual victory by Juve and again, given the game type, I would only approach this game from a trading standpoint because 1) Catania can keep things tight and have scored away to those 2 top 4 sides. Catania have also drawn 3 away from home)
2) Juventus are likely to make the first breakthrough so the 1.36 will reduce dramatically and you can get your stakes back

330pm - Roda v PSV - 1.51 - Against 1st and 3rd sides (PSV 2nd) Roda have lost 2-1 and drawn 2-2 so they can be good at home and can score ( favour over 1.5 goals bet?)
PSV have already beaten Roda 3-0 at PSV which augurs well.
Unbeaten all season, PSV hav won all bar 2 games away from home.Against bottom half sides ( Roda are 13th) goals have been there - PSV scored 16 in 5 away the 5 of the bottom 8 they have played.

4pm Lille v Le Mans - 1.41 - dare we oppose a side who have scored 4 goals in each of their last 4 league matches and scored another 3 at home against Slavia PRague mid week.
Lille scored 4 away from home v Monaco last time, and 4 again at home against St Etienne who are interestingly one place above Le Mans in the league.
Lille are 6th in the league. Le Mans have lost to the 3 of the top 4 they have played away 3-0 , 2-1 and 2-1.
Infact, Le Mans have lost all of their away games. BUT note 3 1-0's and 2 2-1 scorelines.
With Lille's obvious confidence and goalscoring prowess they should make the breakthrough first. With the 1-0 scorelines of Le Mans, I would trade.
Le Mans may have some confidence from 2 home victories on the trot against bottom side AND 7th side ( Lille are 6th)
The question remains today whether Lille can continue scoring for fun. I suspect they can get at least one goal and then get the 3 points

4pm - West Ham V Chelsea 1.42 - ALL of the Hammers home games have been over 2.5 goals this season meaning THEY SCORE and THEY CONCEDE .
They have played 3 of the top 4 at home, losing 4-0, drawing 2-2 and losing 3-2. - conceding at least 2 to the top 4 at home.
Worryingly for the Hammers, their goals have dried up in their last 3 games , only 1 goal. Does this mean that we cannot rely upon them scoring against the top 4 sides ( see Man Utd game?)
Chelsea away have lost to Wigan, Villa and City, BUT scored in all 3 games.
With Man Utd losing again yesterday, Chelsea MUST win to consolidate at the top.

Inter v Lazio 1.41 - Inter don't lose at home under Jose!! LAzio certainly give nothing away at all away from home, with 4 draws, a 2-1 win and 2-0 and 1-0 defeats.
They have not played any of the top 4 away but have lost to 3 of the top 4 at home 2-1 or 2-0
A draw and a loss in their last 2 equals 1 point fro 6 for Inter and Jose needs 3 points today .

HORSE RACING
1235 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Rigour Back Bob, 5/1 Hans Crescent, 6/1 Mazara, 8/1 Stonemaster, 10/1 Effortless, 14/1 Mark Me Up, 16/1 Ballinahow Lady, Harold´s Cross, Hurricane Bolt, Take A Stroll, 20/1 Glenconnor Lad, King´s Light, 25/1 Boherna Gold, Finnbennach, Spider Bob, 33/1 Princess Misty.

Rigour Back Bob is 1/2 and holding up at the head of the market - price gapper in this novices hurdle, has won on heavy 1.12 to place

105 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Mourad, 11/4 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Next Week, 8/1 Mick The Tooth, 20/1 Cheers Jon, 25/1 Mister Bishop.

You've seen it before - betting forecast price considerably shorter in the live market generally augurs well ( apart from falls of course) This is the case with Mourad , now 4/11. Heavy ground a slight concern but these Mullins horses run in Ireland and it rains often ( believe me!!) 1.42 win and 1.13 to place

315 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Anaya, 7/2 Spirit Of Love, 4/1 Ermyn Express, 10/1 Prince Yarraman, Shoot The Pot, 14/1 Grams And Ounces, Not In The Clock, 25/1 Gra Adhmhar, Paint By Numbers, 66/1 Suzybee,

DIOMED VERDICT: The drop down to 7f should not be a problem for ANAYA, who sets the standard in a modest maiden auction event.

Why employ Fallon and Dettori in 3 of the last 4 runs, and revert back to Chris Catlin today ? I would have expected they were looking for the wins when employing Fallon and Dettori? Consistent enough placed form for this one. Spirit of love also backed 1.32 Anaya to place and 1.37 Spirit of love to place


SHORTLIST
Breda v Ajax - 1.17 over 1.5 goals is an interesting bet here, involving both sides. Breda seem capable of scoring at home, and Ajax similarly away from home.
Roda v PSV is suspended on Betfair at the moment - called off? I don't know, but again I would have favoured a goals bet here. Because PSV are unbeaten all season, LAYING Roda with a FIXED LIABILITY equal to the stake you would normally back with ( eg £100) produces the equivalent 1.14 back bet)
Lille v Le Mans - sequences always end, and often abruptly. Lille have scored 4 in all of their last 4 games. Can they possibly achieve that today?
1.41 for the straight win is very tempting in their current form - there are 3 names that crop up amongst the scorers for Lille - Frau, Gervinho and Cabaye - I would want to see these 3.
Le Mans, as explained earlier, have lost all away from home and against a team now with 19 in their last 5 games, Lille should surely make the first breakthrough?
While they are red hot, back them!!
West Ham v Chelsea - the +1.5 goal handicap market is up on Betfair as is the correct score 2 market . This hints at expected goals this afternoon.1.25 for over 1.5 goals, then, looks a reasonable shout? These goals bets involve both teams , but as mentioned in the earlier analysis, the Hammers have scored only 1 in their last 3 games and could not score against another top 4 side, Man Utd, at home recently.
Inter v Lazio - while Jose is still at Inter, lay their opponents at home to keep the excpetional Mourinho home record ( Porto, Chelsea and here) in tact.Again, here, you would click on the PINK lay Button which corresponds to Lazio

Payout

Liability

You will see a liability option. Click on that liability option and enter your normal stake (eg £100)
A box will open showing Max Liability GBP OK
You would enter your stake there ( eg £100)
At odds of 11, Lazio become a 1.09 equivalent back bet.
Of interest too, is the DRAW NO BET MARKET on Betfair but it is a very illiquid market. This would be my preferred option for Inter at home . 1.13 was available but quite simply there is no interest in this market amongst market makers.
HORSE RACING

105 THURLES - The Walsh/Mullins partnership is usually rock solid , especially when the money is down, as it is today. 1.42 to win and 1.13 to place is reasonable enough.
Concern that it's only 2 places ,and of course we have to hope there won't be a fall ( remember I cannot legislate for this and if the horse falls, it's a sickener at such short odds)
There are 2 clear outsiders in this race at 25/1 and 100/1 and hopefully these can be discounted reducing the competitive field to 4, 2 of whom will place
Mourad has a weights advantage over nearest rival, and has never fallen in his career. 2 2nds on he trot when evens favourite. The fact the market has him now at 1/3 almost signifies extreme confidence. If he can place in the 1st 2 at evens, then he should place in the first 2 at 1/3!!
315 KEMPTON - a head scratcher - if they fancied Anaya today, surely they'd have repeated things with another high profile jockey booking?
Of concern too is Spirit of Love's market move. Any involvement here must assume both horses will place. 1.32 and 1.37 to place are nice prices to consider.

Only 2 meetings today, one in heavy ground, means we have slim pickings.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

WHich of the above realaly stands out?

• Laying Roda against PSV really stands out. PSV unbeaten all season would want this to continue. 1.14 equlivalent bet
• 105 Thurles - 1.13 Mourad to place in the first 2 stands out given the horse is extremely well backed and the betting forecast price has shortened considerably
• Lille to beat Le Mans - 1.41 -back them while they are in excellent goalscoring form ( 19 goals in last 5 games) Le Mans lost all away from home this season. NOTE I would trade out after Lille scored first ( hopefully) and return my stake, by simply laying Lille at lower odds for the stake at which I backed them
  
• West Ham v Chelsea over 1.5 goals 1.25. If there was an early goal in this game, then the 1.25 will reduce considerably, and given this is a weekend day, you have this option
• Breda v Ajax - over 1.5 goals at 1.17