ANALYSIS AND COMMENT
Leeds won yesterday 4-2 for the one a day bet. A nice big price ( for a one a day) was most welcome .
I have avoided Man City under Mancini but it looks as if they are solid enough to consider next time.
Again, from a horse racing perspective, all shortlist of the shortlisters placed or won which indicates that I am hitting the mark regularly.
From a footballing perspective the 2 premiership games are hard to get an angle into so it is just horse racing that I will be focussing on. Heavy ground at Limerick sounds a note of caution. Heavy rain expected at Newbury may turn the soft ground softer or heavy
1215 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Duellist, 5/1 Zubova, 11/2 Rathbawn Girl, 13/2 Exearti, 8/1 Bella Charlie, 10/1 Paintball, 66/1 Last Of The Ravens.
| DIOMED VERDICT: DUELLIST is bred to be very useful but won't have to be anything out of the ordinary first time up to dispose of some modest opposition. |
Again Fanning takes the ride for Johnston and won yesterday on Capricornus. A maiden debutant so faith in connections. Zubova is the mover here almost into joint favouratism and with a string of consistent 2nd places. Only 2 under 10/1
1.55 and 1.81 the front 2 to place tells you this is an open maiden
1220 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Voler La Vedette, 7/1 Silk Affair, 10/1 No One Tells Me, 11/1 Zarinava, 12/1 Rossdara, 14/1 College Daisy, Grangeclare Gold, Liss Na Tintri, 20/1 Gentle Alice, 25/1 Present Gesture, 33/1 Rio Alto.
Biggest price gapper of the day and "impossible to oppose" so says Spotlight in the Racing Post - is 2/5 in a listed race a hint in itself? 1.39 to win and 1.08 to place
130 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Quantitativeeasing, 5/1 Iolith, 6/1 Highest Start, 7/1 Ashfield´s Dream, 16/1 Smooth Classic, 20/1 Action Impact, Tail Of The Bank, 40/1 Gross Prophet, Oxford City, 66/1 Chestnut Ben.
| DIOMED VERDICT: QUANTITATIVEEASING has been impressive in both his bumper and hurdling debut and he is expected to win again |
"very much the one to beat" trigger words for this price gapper.
Very interesting stat
1.30 Nicky Henderson and Tony McCoy (Quantitativeeasing) show a fine 77% strike-rate (10-13) when teaming up at the course, returning a £30.46 profit
1.48 win and 1.11 to place
205 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Finian´s Rainbow, 100/30 Manyriverstocross, 4/1 Reve De Sivola, 11/2 River D´Or, 13/2 Duke Of Lucca, 17/2 Any Given Day, 20/1 Quartano, 25/1 Restless Harry, 28/1 Kennel Hill, 40/1 Cois Farraig, 50/1 Bally Sands.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FINIAN'S RAINBOW achieved a very good level of form for a horse having his first run over hurdles when winning well here last month and gets the vote ahead of Manyriverstocross. |
Only 5 horses in the live betting under 25/1 the ones to focus on in this soft ground class 1 hurdle
240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Big Buck´s, 7/2 Diamond Harry, 10/1 Karabak, 14/1 Lough Derg, 20/1 Whiteoak, 22/1 Fair Along, 66/1 Kayf Aramis, 100/1 Sweetheart.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There is much to admire about the young pretenders Diamond Harry and Karabak but they still have some way go to match the performances of BIG BUCK'S, who is as good a staying hurdler as we have seen in the last 20 or so years and is still young. |
Big Buck's has hardened into 1/2 in a race where only 2 horses are under 10/1 and 3 horses are under 20/1 - " must be hard to beat" 1.48 to win 1.09 to place
345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Midnight Prayer, 8/1 Mac´s Haul, Yukon Quest, 10/1 Mizzurka, Uncle Ant, 11/1 Mossini, 14/1 Aeronautica, 16/1 Premier Article, 20/1 Captain Hastings, Easton Clump, El Passos, Missmargaritaville, Total Submission, 25/1 Mister Concussion, 28/1 Alfie Brown, 33/1 Venetian Lad, Victoria Rose, 40/1 Island News, 50/1 Robin De Vassy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to be dogmatic about the outcome with 15 of the 19 runners making their debuts under rules but none of them makes really strong appeal on paper and MIDNIGHT PRAYER does set a decent standard on last month's C&D debut second. Big price gapper here BUT a word of caution - this is a bmper and the market needs consultation especially with all of the debutants 1.47 to place SHORTLIST 1220 LEOPARDSTOWN Voler la Vadete is "impossible to oppose" and is priced accordingly. As I have to write this earlier than I would like, the prices given are guide only. 1.38 to win and 1.09 to place. Dare we risk the win only here given the horse is " impossible to oppose"? 2 mile 4 furlongs in yieling ground - 11 runner listed mares hurdle 130 NEWBURY Quantitativeeasing was a ready winner last time out and is almost a carbon copy of the price for the horse above.1.49 to win and 1.11 to place 2 miles on soft and a hurdle -10 runners and 4 horses over 50/1 240 NEWBURY Big Buck's is, again, similarly priced at 1.48 to win and 1.09 to place. 3 miles on soft and a hurdle - 8 runner race (the minimum number for 3 places) - fewer opponents to beat These are the 3 races of interest today and all are very similarly priced and profiled. Now I know that one of these at least will win its race, and the 1.48 is certainly a nice boon, but which horse? The place only prices bring up the question of risk v reward. The biggest place price is for Quantitativeeasing at only 1.11 There are alternatives - we can back these horses in the win market at 1.48 and place a prearranged lay bet at around 1.20 ( our presumption is the horse will run prominently and be competitive throughout) All races are jumps races and we have the spectre of a fall scuppering things. All 3 horses are " impossible to oppose" , "must be hard to beat" and "very much the one to beat" These words form the basis of my " hard to beat" system where the horses generally run very well indeed. Alternatives? Well ,look at the betting for 240 NEWBURY - there are only 3 horses under 20/1 - Diamond Harry is 1.4 to place - chance him? Quantitativeeasing has the shortest distance to run so has that in his favour Big Buck's is in the race with the fewer runners and is one of only 3 under 20/1. These would be the 2 to focus on. My concern is that the prices allow for no error as they are so short. Quantitativeeasing just edges it on price at 1.11 |
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