Of the horses, Master Overseer, the only shortlister, placed with ease and for the life of me, I can't understand why I would dismiss a 7 runner race paying 3 places with a "hard to beat" selection - a dayus horribilus as my showbiz pal, the Queen would say.
Enhanced football bets? Well they brought some solace with Roma ( 1.41 shots and here's a team at home who HAVE to win ) went a goal down to Basel and were backable at 2.22 .They inevitably equalised and went on to win so I recouped my losses on the Shaktar game. Of course I traded out at 1-1 as I cannot predict the future! I was just looking for the trade, but it is really gauling at times. A green screen of guaranteed profit of £218 as against £634 if Roma won ( but a potential £500 loss of course if they didn't!!)
I also backed Fulham with a 0-0 cover bet as they are reknowned low scorers, and they scored first, so I traded out for a marginal profit in that game.
1230 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kilshannig, 9/2 Cricket Boy, 6/1 Lansdowne Princess, 13/2 Guydus, 8/1 French Leave, Sona Sasta, 12/1 Darfour, 14/1 Vic´s World, 16/1 Daarth, 20/1 Free To Air, 33/1 Saint Espiegle, 66/1 Lupita.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Kilshannig has obvious claims under a penalty for success on Tuesday where to nobody's surprise he improved for handicapping up in trip. But there are a few rivals who could be capable of pulling off the same trick, includng CRICKET BOY, who, like his smart dam, evidently needs blinkers. |
9/2 in the betting forecast now strong 7/4 favourite this Cricket Boy - local track for the Pipes so could be a signal of confidence here 1.43 to place
1240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Full Toss, 100/30 Traphalgar, 4/1 Dream Of Fortune, 7/1 Awatuki, 10/1 Painted Sky, 12/1 Kings Topic, 50/1 Artreju, Boffin.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TRAPHALGAR is taken to get the better of Full Toss in a claimer that is unlikely to take much winning. |
An interesting race despite being a claimer. The straight 8 runners mean 3 places, and there is 2 horses at 66/1 who should be readily dismissed and a 25/1 shot who we hope plays no part. This reduces the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place. Full toss has the excellent Richard Hughes on board and is down from general class 2 to class 6 here. He maintains favouratism over Fallon's Trafalgar whose form looks great for place backing. 1.28 and 1.39 the front 2 to place
125 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rivaliste, 7/2 Award Winner, 9/2 Latanier, 13/2 Total Victory, 8/1 Captain Americo, 10/1 Doctor Pat, 11/1 Cockatoo, 25/1 Uncle Eli.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Total Victory and, in particular, recent Newbury winner Rivaliste command plenty of respect but preference is for AWARD WINNER, who is on a decent mark on hurdles and latest chase form. Handicap chases are not the most appetising of betting mediums, but the straight 8 here mean 3 places and Rivaliste represents Walsh/Nicholls. Soft ground on the chase course, heavy on the hurdles course.Won under Ruby on 27th November on his chase bow. 1.34 to place 135 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bensalem, 13/8 Take The Breeze, 7/2 Overclear, 16/1 Adroit Approach, Connak.
2 at 20/1 should make this a 3 horse race for 2 places and a good probability race, with previous one a dayer bensalem and Nicholl's Take the Breeze hopefully dominating 1.25 Bensalem and 1.65 take the breeze to place 235 SANDOWN Or Jaune is the outsider here and layable perhaps at 9.2 for an equivalent 1.11 bet - not nailed on given this is a listed race and over 3 miles in heavy, so even if one market principle falters, this could allow Or Jaune in 330 LING BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mannlichen, 3/1 Aurorian, 5/1 Gunslinger, 6/1 Slip, 14/1 Inch Lodge.
I do like MArk Johnston horses when installed as hot favs ( odds on in the live market) - only 2 places though in this handicap though, but will he be beaten by 2 others in this 5 horse race ( including the perceived 25/1 outsider)? 1.26 to place FOOTBALL Besiktas 1.25 at home to Diyarbakirspor - again it's a matter of looking for justification to back -2nd in the league - on a run of 8 straight wins - 4 of those being 1-0's so caution there!!Against teams around their opponents in the tables, results have been 2-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-1 - the characteristic being tight games Opponents are 14th out of 18 in the league , and have lost their last 4 away, have lost 4-0 and 2-0 to 2 of the top 5 that they have played away, and against first and 3rd in the league at home ( remember Besiktas are 2nd), they have lost 3-1 and 2-1) A guide to a home win here for Besiktas but a concern over the tightness of their wins at home. Bayern v Mgladbach - 1.33 - I would not trust Bayern at present without Robben and Ribery. Mgaldbach, though, like over 2.5 goals when playing away indicating it's not bus parking time away from home. Bayern do have a threat, their manager must win to keep his job, and this looks primed for over 1.5 goals ( famous last words!!) SHORTLIST 1240 LINGFIELD - claimers blow hot and cold and can be unpredictable. I am taken by the straight 8 today - looks a toss up between Full Toss and Trafalgar - will the marked drop in class work for Full Toss? 1.28 to place is very enticing. 135 EXETER - 2 places in this 5 runner novice chase and 2 are 20/1 and hopefully will run to their prices. Bensalem is odds on here, and this is one of those probability races, where you side with one of the 3 and hope they come in the first 2. 235 SANDOWN - despite this being a listed race ( ie all 4 contenders are strong), laying Or Jaune as the default outsider at 9.4 is the same as backing a 1.11 shot, and we have Walsh/Nicholl's Tatenen , McCoy/Nicholls Kicks for free, and Murphy/Pipe's Seven is my number running for us. BESIKTAS - winning run of 8 is good evidence to back ( the negative? Winning sequences always end eventually. AND scorelines have generally not been that emphatic) BUT how good is the opposition? That's the question - their performance away to top 5 sides is poor. An eminently tradeable game , and a good enhanced bet game if the opposition score first. The prevalence of tight games, for Besiktas, despite being victorious, would err me on the side of caution and do a 0-0 cover of the match odds - at odds of 18 for 0-0, this will cost £6 to cover £100 stake on BEsiktas. ONE A DAY There are no rock solid " shock if it loses" bets today, and I am wary that Saturday and Sunday should provide superb opportunities. I really don't like middle distance races, even more so claimers, but I am taken by Full Toss under Richard Hughes (1240 LINGFIELD) with the huge drop in class. -should involve 5 horses running for 3 places As hinted at, though, this is hardly rock solid - shock-if-it-loses , akin to Barca v Xerez for example. 235 SANDOWN - comes with its niggles as well. This is a listed race after all ( and none can be readily discounted),but laying Or Jaune to £100 fixed liability will give a return of 1.11. We have 2 Nicholls horses, one Pipe horse, and 2 world class jumps jockeys on our side I am aware that Besiktas's winning sequence will end sometime, but tonight? I am also aware of the tightness generally of their wins. If considering backing them, I would cover my stake on the 0-0 correct score. If pushed ,I would take a chance on any of the above, mindful though, that they are not in the ultra rock solid category. Personally, I will be laying Or Jaune today, despite the fact that a 3 mile listed race means the horse cannot be discounted.So officially a NO BET day for the record but consideration for any of the 3. I will be hoping Or Jaune hits the 1st fence and tails off ( without getting injured of course) There will be far better opportunities in future days fo you to leave today alone if you want. But if taken by any of the arguments put forward, then go for it. |
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