22/12

ONE A DAY - No bet today - Next Bet 26th December 2009 BUT check your inbox as I will be looking at other sports in the interim.


With only one meeting on today, we are severely restricted by choice.

1225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Secretive, 3/1 Master Leon, 7/2 Boy The Bell, 7/1 Exearti, 10/1 Blades Harmony, Golden Tiger, 14/1 Lily In The Pond, 33/1 Clifton Kid, Last Of The Ravens.

DIOMED VERDICT: BOY THE BELL has shown enough to think there is a small race in him and this looks a good opportunity.

2nd fav and 3rd fav significant non runners along with Lily on the Pond. This leaves 6 runners and hopefully still 3 places paid out on Betfair.
In secretive we have the impressive Fanning/Johnston partnership. A newcomer so the only way to guage likely running is through the market where he's 8/11 at time of writing.

And from my perspective, that's it as far as the single meeting at Southwell goes, and we are still left with a maiden debutant 2 year old on the all weather to consider - not a rock solid bet I am sure you will agree.
So any arguments for place backing Secretive?

• 2ndand 3rd favs non runners - fav's nearest rivals
• there are only 6 runners remaining and 3 places so the question is " will this newcomer from a top stable and with stable number one jockey onboard ( note stable 2nd jockey is also at Southwell so having Fanning onboard may be a clue in itself?) get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 runner race, 2 of which are 20/1 or bigger

NEGATIVES

• 5 of the 6runners are debutants and could be anything. eg the fav could not take to the surface and the other debutants could.
• class 6 2 year old maidens are not the most reliable of betting mediums unless you have some stable inside info ( especially with 5 debutants in the field)

BUT from a probability perspective, this is a 50/50 race - 6 horses - 3 places.

Elsewhere the football offers nothing today - a couple of Dutch Cup games which are difficult to read with lack of team news or news re the weather.
The Turkish Cup game features Maniasapor and Besiktas who fought out a 1-1 draw in the league. Again we are betting blind here as team news/ motivation etc are so difficult to assess.

SHORTLIST
As we approach Xmas things are opportunities are likely to be thin on the ground
The only race of interest is the 1225 Southwell.
POSITIVES - 6 runners - 3 places - 50/50 race. Will Secretive get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race, 2 of which are 16/1 and 20/1
Secretive was the betting forecast favourite and now 2nd and 3rd in the betting forecast are non runners- surely this makes life a lot easier for the horse not just to win but to place
Joe Fanning takes the ride and considering Greg Fairley is at Southwell today ( stable's 2nd jockey ) is this a clue in itself?
NEGATIVES - all bar one of these runners are debutants, meaning that they are being priced ,pretty much, by pedigree and stable connections ( perceived ability) rather than any concrete ability shown.

It is simply a guessing game this race, and building up evidence to side with it or oppose. Can we safely place back an unraced horse , a 2 year old, on the all weather, in a maiden where 5 of the 6 runners are also unraced 2 year olds?
There will be stronger opportunities after the holiday period I think