7/12

Arsenal won 2-0 on SAturday and there was plenty for the enhanced bettor to get stuck into. Wolfsburg (1.41 and playing at home) went an early goal down and equalised , Sevilla went a goal down and equalised , and the piece de resistance - Real MAdrid 2-1 down at home!! This was a 1/6 shot available to back at 5.1 - they equalised of course and went on to win. An early Xmas Present if ever there was one!! Please tell me you sniffed this one out!!

150 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Meridian City, 15/8 Sunarri, 7/1 Kellystown Lad, 25/1 Qollioure, 33/1 Jack Apple, 100/1 Art Bank.

DIOMED VERDICT: Meridian City has something to prove on the ground and SUNARRI, who might have found conditions too testing last time but has sound prospects on his previous Aintree second, is preferred.

First race of interest, albeit not an ideal one. Looks a 3 horse race if the outsiders can be discounted , vying for 2 places.Of the principals, Meridian City maintains odds on status
1.19 to place, and Sunarri 1.49 to place -illiquid markets though at present

200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hidden Glory, 4/1 Lucky Breeze, 11/2 Thundering Home, 6/1 Magic Place, 7/1 Monyati, 25/1 That´s Show Biz, 33/1 Fever Tree, Spice Fair, 40/1 Fochabers, 50/1 Scarlet Ridge, 66/1 Kingston Folly, 100/1 Big Hands Lynch.

DIOMED VERDICT: HIDDEN GLORY is easily the pick on form and can make it third time lucky Lucky Breeze and Monyati look the newcomers to note.

PRice gapper in this maiden, life made a little easier by the absence of the 4th fav.
Now 4/7 and this is a good sign when the betting forecast price is shorter in the live market.
Fochabers 18/1 in places and a newcomer so a likely market mover.
A race where there are 5 newcomers who could be anything.
4th in a class 4 and 2nd in a class 5 - this is a class 6 and the horse got 2nd in a big field maiden
-must always look at the negatives which include race type - these are 2 year olds and the fact the fav is tackling 8 furlongs for the first time

1.13 to place but again the market has not got going yet

220 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Natural Action, 7/2 Mesbaah, 6/1 First Stream, 15/2 Simple Jim, 10/1 Almanyan, Locked Inthepocket, 12/1 Moonwalking, 16/1 Larnalee, 20/1 Planetarium, Portavadie, Soubriquet, 33/1 December Sun, Regent´s Secret.

DIOMED VERDICT: NATURAL ACTION, much improved and with conditions to suit, may be able to defy a significantly higher mark.

I missed the boat with Natural Action's superb win last time and the weight might catch him out this time, but his win was authoritative an he could yet be placed again rather than win. BIG move for Lockedinthepocket now 7/2 fav - someone fancies this one
1.59 and 1.91 for the 2 mentioned to place

310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Inside Track, 9/4 Flipping, 4/1 Royal Box, 11/2 Underworld Dandy, 16/1 Ellmollell, 20/1 Empress Leizu, Hubble Space, 25/1 Clayton Flick, 40/1 Typical Female.

DIOMED VERDICT: Inside Track has strong claims but FLIPPING could be a handful if repeating the form of his fifth off a mark of 80 on his only previous try at this track.

9 runners in his claimer and Flipping is the fav now into 7/4. Only 4 under 16/1 here - claimers do come with wealth warnings but Flipping has the best form and rating 1.3 to place

320 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Final Day, 7/2 Buraimi Oasis, 6/1 Rubipresent, 8/1 Chester Lad, 10/1 Hooked On Line, 14/1 Stormio n, 20/1 Five Jembs, Moraira Magic, 25/1 Glaced Over, 33/1 The Only Way, 50/1 Backtobackjack, Dusk To Dawn, Ouest Eclair.

DIOMED VERDICT: Irish raider FINAL DAY looked a useful propect when making a succssful debut at Perth in May and can defy his penalty.

You should know the drill by now with bumpers - the market is key, but as things stand, Final Day is now odds on here after impressing on sole bumper start but he faces 7 newcomers for whom there may be a move later on

1.2 to place

340 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ghufa, 4/1 Dream In Blue, 9/2 Fantasy Ride, 9/1 Rising Force, 12/1 Tesserae, 14/1 Casablanca Minx, 16/1 Shandelight, York Cliff, 18/1 Markadam, 20/1 Davids City, 33/1 Desert Hawk, Misty Kit.

DIOMED VERDICT: GHUFA has a decent chance in his bid to make it 3-4 at this track. The main danger is Fantasy Ride.

Price gapper and the price gap better in live market - 11/10 - - - -5/1 but we must remember the race type -- a seller -2 3rd places in a class 6 seller and class 6 claimer when 4/1 and 9/2 should mean that ,if priced as clear solid price gapper fav this time, he should, at the very least, replicate that placed form?
Negatives - middle distance race and jockeys can lose these races with misjudgements of pace
1.26 to place

FOOTBALL
Int Curtea v Clu - 1.48 away side
Home team Curtea Arges have a home record of 1-0-7 (W-D-L) for their 8 home games this season
Away team CFR Cluj have an away record of 2-2-3 (W-D-L) for their 7 away games this season,
Nothing in the stats that would tell me to lump on Cluj, but what is interesting is 1.1 for one goal or more - only one goal scored and we win!! The markets, though, seem set up for a low scoring encounter with over 1.5 goals at 1.41

Litex Lovech 1.11 to win - not much money on Betfair for this match which was postponed from the weekend, but 1.11 at home should indicate goals and something like 3-0, 4-0 , 5-0 which would have been my correct score picks for the weekend for this match - bet 365 offer 1/10 about liteks and offer 1/3 about halftime/fulltime Liteks which is enticing.
More so could be Bet365's 1/2 about over 2.5 goals.
These are all markets unavailable at Betfair

I tink Bet365 is a site I will have to visit more often and use as they offer good markets in games where Betfair only offer match odds

Setabul v Sporting - bottom side v a side who should be contenders.
Sporting are on a run of 5 consecutive draws, and Man City showed with their win over Chelsea that sequences end.Setabul at home have been ultra tight since a 4-0 thrashing back in September. Sporting are priced at 1.63 which hints at a win but a tight match too

SHORTLIST
200 LINGFIELD - mentioned because of the shortening of betting forecast price - 1.13 about a 2 year old maiden fav though is not that appetising
310 WOLVES
Yes a claimer but FLipping is well fancied now 6/4 anad 1.3 looks a nice price. Only 4 under 16/1, the negative is the race type which can see outsiders get involved regularly
Int Curtea v Cluj - 1.1 total goals 1 or more.
Am I missing something here? A 1/2 shot away from home expected to win and a huge ( for the market) 1.1 for a single goal to be scored in this match by either side. Too good to miss surely?
In all of their matches since September there has been just one 0-0 when Cluj met and equally matched side at home
6 1-0 scorelines scattered amongst both teams recent matches should mean that we will be made to sweat for a goal but this surely falls into the category of "shock if it loses"
Litex Lovech - my focus would be with the market at bet365 here with halftime/full time at an appealing 1/3 ,which bumps the odds up for a 1.11 shot
The market on Betfair is illiquid ( but it does have 5 hours for some cash to come in)

ONE A DAY
Must be total goals, 1 or more at 1.1 for me in the Cluj match. This is in running too, and the odds are likely to go up very slowly so if you are in the position to follow, it's 0-0 at half time and you're getting the cold sweats, then you can manage your positions
From a horse racing perspective, it's the usual tough Monday fare but at the price I would be taken by Flipping in the 310 wolves, ever mindful of the race type of course

But as things stand, total goals one or more, at 1.1 is too good to miss and it will be a shock if a goal is not scored by one of the teams within the 90 minutes ( and this is the type of bet we want - shock -if-it-loses bet!!)