3/12

Dunguib yet again was imperious.
I was right to cover the Barcelona bet with a 0-0 insurance as Xerez did put up their usual fight, and it was 1-0 til the 93rd minute when Ibra secured the win .

115 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Woodlark Island, 6/4 Rougham, 4/1 History Lesson, 16/1 Brad´s Luck, 50/1 Bari Bay, 100/1 Lady Of Ashcott, Super Fourteen.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks booked for a newcomer with WOODLARK ISLAND given the vote.

4 horses are 50/1 or bigger - slight mover in Brad's Luck into 12/1. A 4 horse race and 2 places so a probability race and a matter of picking the right one of the 4 to finish 1st or 2nd - front 3 vary between 1.63 and 1.71 but the market is very illiquid.

125 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 King Fontaine, 9/2 Frosty Lad, 7/1 Shayaza, 15/2 South America, 10/1 Apache Blue, Switched Off, 12/1 Finlay, 14/1 Tequilla Bob, 25/1 Young Buddy, 50/1 Bob Will.

DIOMED VERDICT: KING FONTAINE did it well enough last month to make him the one to beat

"one to beat" trigger words and a price gapper in the live market -soft ground a ? given only ran in good to soft and was poor in heavy ground 1.15 to place

145 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Master Overseer, 4/1 Skipper´s Lad, 10/1 Terrible Tenant, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, Gatien Du Tertre, 14/1 Wizard Of Edge, 20/1 Aces Or Better, 25/1 Triggernometry.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks at the mercy of wide-margin Towcester winner MASTER OVERSEER who is well ahead of the handicapper.

" at the mercy of" certainly exudes confidence from Diomed. My concern is that this is heavy ground and a handicap chase, and usually handicap chases , by their very nature,are good races for laying favourites
8 reduced to 7 runners and a move for Wizard and Aces or better ( the price shortening may be due to Alexander the non runner ?)

Do we go with Diomed's confidence here? A type of " hard to beat" bet and you have seen recently that they place with ease 1.19 to place and 3 places with 7 runners make it easier for Master Overseer to finish in the first 3
Hadden Frost claims 3 here .
Negatives - handicap chase and ground

FOOTBALL
1130- Pirin v Litex Lovech - 1.16 away side -the Bulgarian Cup - Litex have let in 5 in their last 2 league matches but previous to that they won 7 and drew 1
Pirin are a lower league side but I cannot find any of their recent results. THIS IS IN RUNNING which is great news. 1.15 over 1.5 goals involves both sides
6pm PSV v Sparta Prague - again given the reputation of PSV, I would side with goals here - 1.36 over 1.5 goals and in running - 2-2 last time ,but PSV have only managed the single goal in their Europa matches
6pm Shaktar Donetsk v Club Brugge - 1.51 - I have said it before, Shaktar take this competition extremely seriously and have been spanking teams of late in the Europa League 4/11 at Ladbrokes and a little bigger on Betfair. Could be a nice big price this one ( compared to the usual one a day prices) 4-1 away to Club Brugge but there is a motivation concern with Shaktar - they have secured their berth in the last 32, but Brugge need to better Toulouse's result to get through - so perhaps a goals bet here involving both sides? Over 1.5 goals?
Another in running match
6pm Toulouse v Partizan - 1.41 - Toulouse won 3-2 last time at Partizan - Partizan are out and lack motivation and Toulouse would seem to need to win
From the UEFA website

A win against eliminated FK Partizan will guarantee Toulouse FC the chance to play Club Brugge KV for a place in the UEFA Europa League round of 32 as Group J heads towards its conclusion.

• Should Toulouse record a worse outcome against Partizan than Club Brugge procure from their visit to section leaders FC Shakhtar Donetsk, Alain Casanova's side would be eliminated.

Previous meetings
• Toulouse won 3-2 in Belgrade on Matchday 1 in the sides' first meeting, which was also the French club's first game against Serbian opposition. Partizan have not won in France, earning a 1-1 draw in their first visit and 4-0 and 3-0 defeats in subsequent trips.ee

6pm Werder Bremen v Nacional - 1.47 - Bremen won 3-2 in Funchal. Werder are through so there is no real motivation for them, but there is a gulf in class here. BUT given it's Thursday, perhaps Werder may rest a few with Bundesliga in mind at the weekend?

805pm Fulham v Sofia 1.36 - 1-1 in the corresponding fixture in Sofia - Fulham have only scored one goal in each of their Europa league games -they do need the win though and this and home advantage should ensure the win if we see Woy fielding a stwong side.

SHORTLIST
It would seem again today that the football holds the safest opportunities as there is ground niggles again with the gee gees
With the football, we need to look for sides motivated to win

145 MARKET RASEN - Master OVerseer fits into my "hard to beat " system. Extreme confidence from Diomed " looks at the mercy of" Only 7 runners and still 3 places. Change of jockey today to take a little weight off.
NEGATIVES - handicap chases are bad betting mediums for shorties . There are no real nailed on outsiders here either
1130 - Litex Lovech should win against minnows - 1.15 and in running which is great
630 - Shaktar must always be taken seriously but have already qualified. 1.27 over 1.5 goals is tradeable
630 - Toulouse must win it would seem and this should be motivation enough against a team with nothing to play for. 1.41 here and 3-2 last time indicates potential for goals again 1.28 over 1.5 goals and tradeable

ONE A DAY
No Dunguib today alas for the horses. Litex's match will be off before this goes out and ,given it's in running, a good opportunity for match odds or over 1.5 goal betting with trading in mind after the first goal.I'm going to chance over 1.5 goals in the Shaktar match today at 1.27 given Brugge need to win. NOTE - a weakened Shaktar side ( kick off at 630pm means I have no news at time of writing) will mean I revert to Toulouse over 1.5 goals (as ever all football bets are to be traded ideally)