Lille won 3-1 continuing their impressive goalscoring form recently
FOOTBALL
7pm - Haarlem v Cambuur - Bottom v 3rd in the Dutch 2nd tier. - Home side have lost to all of the top 10 sides - 3 times away to the top 3 ( 4-1 defeat to Cambuur) and 7 times at home to 4th to 9th teams inclusive
Cambuur away from home have been decent - winning 8, drawing 2 ,and losing 1-0 to FC Zwolle.
In all away matches, CAmbuur have scored 2 or more goals, 3 goals once away , 4 goals thrice away and 5 goals twice away from home. Interestingly the 5 goal hauls away from home came against 2nd and 3rd from bottom sides ( remember they are playing the bottom side this evening)
Betfair, alas, is very sparce with its markets, putting up only match odds markets and over/under 2.5 goals. Not in running. Given the stats, and the fact Haarlem scored in all bar 2 of their home games, this might be evidence enough for an over 2.5 goal bet?
730pm - Schalke v Mainz - 1.49 home team - 2nd v 8th - Schalke have only lost 3 games all season, 2 at home and 1 away from home. Schalke's short odds are in part because Mainz are poor away from home, losing 4 and drawing 3 and only winning against 3rd bottom side.
Schalke have drawn at home ( score draws) when facing top 5 sides - mainz are 8th. Schalke did lose 2-1 to Wolfsburg ( 9th side - I look at league positions to guage teams general performances against those similarly placed to opposition)
Schalke have been emphatic against those 10th and down at home.
Recent form? - Have won their last 2 games 2-0, including the scalp of Werder away 2-0 - so confidence high. A 1-0 loss away prior to that , a win, and 3 score draws prior to that was a frustrating period
Mainz have drawn 4 of their last 6 , won 1 and lost 1 .
Couple these draws with the draws Schalke have had at home against top 5 sides, and they don't look that nailed on to me. The bookies disagree with 4/11 and 1.49 on Betfair.
DARTS
The PDC World Championship darts begins tonight and I managed to watch Phil Taylor in action ( thank you Sky) recently and he is absolutely superb. Alas his match odds in individual matches pretty much tell you this. 1.01 I believe tonight is unbackable, but as its the world Championship, this is layable (well 1.02 to lay) with minimal loss and maximum upside)
An alternative is the correct score market. If a player is priced 1.01, then surely this hints at a whitewash? Betfair's markets are illiquid.1.1 is the best available at LAdbrokes for 3-0 to Taylor in sets.
HORSERACING
1205 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Novikov, 3/1 Genari, 7/2 Uncle Bertie, 4/1 Bewery Man, 8/1 Pearl Dealer, 16/1 Nous Voila, 25/1 Fleetwood Flame, 50/1 Tara´s Attraction,
| DIOMED VERDICT: NOVIKOV should up to winning a seller and is preferred to Uncle Bertie. |
Now reduced to 7 runners and still 3 places on Betfair. This opens up the probability aspect as any horse only has 4 to beat to place in the first 3
There are still 2 horses at 40/1 or bigger which reduces the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place
Being a selling hurdle, I cannot get worked up about any of the candidates, suffice to say that this should involve
Novikov 1.36 to place currently
Genari 1.52 to place
Bewery Man 1.45 to place
Uncle Bertie 1.74 to place
The market favours Novikov but the place market is illiquid.
The problem with a race of this type is that it's very much a guessing game which of the principles will NOT place.
1225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Puteri, 6/1 Ambrogina, Privy Speech, 8/1 Que Belle, 10/1 Lily Lily, 12/1 Labretella, 25/1 Penderyn, 33/1 Little Meadow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PUTERI sets the standard in a weak race and unless one of the newcomers is useful, she should prove hard to beat. |
The straight 8 runners here means 3 places and Puteri is a price gapper in this 2 year old maiden. There looks to be 2 clear outsiders who should play no part
A potential " hard to beat" selection but new to the surface ( but has raced at Lingfield and Kempton) and as an only 3 time out 2 year old, the horse may still be learning - 1.21 to place
110 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bescot Springs, 9/4 Samurai Way, 7/2 Predictive, 7/1 Promising Anshan, 10/1 Conington, Lord Tomnoddy, 33/1 Ironical, Ocheekobee, Whiteabbey, 100/1 Good To Be Grey, Harellie, Heroic Lad, Money Finder, Safeguard, What´s Occurrin.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SAMURAI WAY made a likeable return to action at Lingfield and can beat the promising Bescot Springs. |
Interesting aiden hurdle with only 4 in single figure odds. Predictive stands out for wise, with a string of 2nd places ideal for the place only backer. BUT only one of those 2nd places this year on 14th November
Bescot springs is interesting having come 3rd to Peddlars Cross who you'll remember from a recent analysis who went on to win - Bescot is a bumper horse and has not run a hurdle race in anger yet
With this race looking to involve the 8 horses under 50/1 it is worth looking at in the final decision making process 1.52 Bescot Springs and 1.59 Predictive to place
145 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ernst Blofeld, 7/2 Masked Man, 4/1 Hinton Thunderbolt, 5/1 Big Burrows, 50/1 Dermatologiste, No More Punts, 100/1 Chief Lady Olwyn.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ERNST BLOFELD has less to prove than his market rivals. |
An interesting race here with only 4 horses under 50/1 seemingly the ones to concentrate on. This leaves a 50/50 race with 4 horses running for 2 places.Ernst Blofeld is interesting having the best hurdles form and coming an impressive enough 2nd in his chasing debut last time over 2 mile 6 furlongs.
In order to back Ernst to place, we have to assume that the horse will win. 2 places allow for no errors. 1.23 to place in a race where Ernst seeingly has only 2 contenders to beat to place ( and not fall of course)
205 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Confuchias, 7/2 Total Impact, 10/1 Cornus, Ponting, Secret Witness, 12/1 Jord, 14/1 Imperial House, 16/1 Cape Of Storms, 20/1 Mandhooma, Miss Pusey Street, 33/1 Kannon, Tag Team.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CONFUCHIAS (nap) is dropping in grade here and although he isn't as good as he was, this shouldn't be beyond him. |
Recent short pricers in claimers have been placing. A sharp drop in grade for Confuchias may hide the fact that the horse isn't that good.
The betting market is very interesting with only 2 horses 12/1 or under.
4th of 6 in a class 2 handicap at Southwell last time, so the surface will hold no concerns.
As ever with claimers, we just have to hope that today's race is not the one when the outsiders come in! It's very much like russian roulette. You'll get caught out eventually 1.14 to place
320 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Lou´s Coole Girl, 7/2 Whatdouthink, 4/1 Buckshots Banjo, 5/1 Dapper Dan, 6/1 Tammys Hill, 10/1 Dependant Man, 12/1 Ballintemple Star, 20/1 Tommy Kelly, 33/1 Lazy Hill, Octobuddy, 50/1 More And More.
Interesting that Spotlight at the Racing Post is keen on Buckshots Banjo in this national hunt flat race
"BUCKSHOTS BANJO could prove difficult to beat providing that he has progressed as one might expect from a recent outing at Thurles, only the second of his career and coming after a 15-month absence. The manner in which he kept on for third behind Cass Bligh suggests that he will be suited by the longer trip here."
A race where there are only 4 horses under 12/1 at time of writing, I must remind you again that with bumpers the market is key here.
720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Barreq, 9/2 Playboy Blues, 6/1 Ana Moutabahi, 8/1 Thistlestar, 10/1 Pomeroy, 12/1 Fusaichi Flyer, 16/1 Belles Beau, Silkenveil, 25/1 Always Dixie, French Wind, Royal Torbo, 66/1 Whitley Bay.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BARREQ (nap) made a promising debut and with the likelihood of improvement, makes plenty of appeal with his yard in such good form. |
Price gapper here but can be really be brimming with confidence after only one run for this 2 year old maiden? Market not fully formed this early on
SHORTLIST
HAARLEM V CAMBUUR - this looks all over an away win for an impressive Cambuur side, but as it is Dutch 2nd division I would have insisted on trading because this league is not one of the ones I focus on.
There should certainly be goals in this game, but I would have preferred the over 1.5 goal option. The Betfair markets are only ofering match odds and over /under 2.5 goals markets
1205 UTTOXETER - another late withdrawal brings this race down to 6 runners and 3 places - the amount of non runners should sound a note of caution regarding the ground ( as should the inspection conducted this morning)
Taras Attraction is 40/1 and should play no part
Novikov 1.31 to place
Bewery Man 1.4 to place
Genari 1.66 to place
Uncle Bertie 1.77 to place
Any selection need only beat 3 horses to place , one of which is 40/1 making this a great probability race, BUT who to chose?
1225 SOUTHWELL - Puteri is a price gapper here and is new to Southwell's surface. The straight 8 and 3 places make this appealing, 2 debutants - Que Belle looks the better fancied of these.
Going purely on the price gap, Puteri should be competitive or the places
145 UTTOXETER - were it not for the fact that the ground has a question mark over it and there are only 2 places available, Ernst Blofeld would be extremely interesting today as he has not been out of the top 2 in 3 previous races including one chase run ( this is a beginners chase)
205 SOUTHWELL - Confushias gets a mention simply because he is very well fancied in the place market at 1.15
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Must include
- 1205 UTTOXETER simply because it's 6 runners and 3 places - NEGATIVES - selling hurdle and these ain't no future Champion Hurdle winners. None of the front 4 can be discounted so an element of luck needed for any selection to place POSITIVES - probability is 50/50 that with a clear round 3 will place and 3 will not - it's clear cut
- 1225 Southwell because this is the straight 8 runners meaning 3 places and 2 clear outsiders along with a big price gapper favouite in Punteri NEGATIVES - 2 year old maiden race and faith that this favourite replicates the best of his form POSITIVES - massive price gap evens ----6/1 here indicates the market expects the horse to be competitive - 2 clear outsiders reduce the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place
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