Note - at time of writing (1130am) the markets are illiquid , there's £93 available at 1.19, and £81 at 1.18 in the place market. This market must get more liquidity nearer race time. If possible, wait until nearer the race time until placing your bet
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ANALYSIS AND COMMENT
Bellvano placed and the shortlist of the shortlist bets all came in with Kauto winning and Celtic winning. Nice to swerve Chelsea as Birmingham proved their 7th place is not by accident.
Midday - Hibs v Rangers - this is going to be tight as the 5/6 about an Old Firm side attests. Hibs are in great general form and great home form and lost to Celtic 1-0 and drew at Rangers 1-1.Difficult to get an angle into. If Hibs score first, I can see them holding on or drawing.Rangers have only lost one away and that was 1-0 Aberdeen.
130pm - Arsenal v Aston Villa - Arsenal's only loss at home was against Chelski 3-0 - all other games have seen Arsenal score 2 or more and win every game. Villa away from home ,have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2 2-1. If they don't win, they keep it tight . 4 wins on the trot means that Villa are brimming with confidence.
4pm -Hull City v Man Utd - 1.43 away side. Some good general form for Hull at home against those 11th or lower in the league - losing none. Move up to the bigger clubs and it's not so good - 8 losses and a 1-1 draw against top 10 sides. Hull have not played the big teams at home so we cannot guage their set up - ultra defensive?
United have scored 13 away in 3 games against the bottom 4 (Hull being 2nd bottom) which hints at a mauling for Hull.
United have surprisingly lost away 4 times -to Chelsea, Fulham , Liverpool and Burnley.
Recent United form is poor - 2 losses in last 3 games. UNACCEPTABLE to Fergie, and he will expect a win against this type of opposition, especially considering Chelsea's 0-0 yesterday and a potential tricky affair for Arsenal with Villa.
Rugby Union - Leicester v Sale 1.13
HORSERACING
1240 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Star Promise, 5/2 Bubbly Bellini, 7/2 Tamarind Hill, 25/1 Stoneacre Joe.
| DIOMED VERDICT: STAR PROMISE has plenty going for her given that she comes out with the best chance at the weights, was a ready maiden winner on her only previous visit to Southwell and represents a trainer who won this race in 2002 and 2006. |
2 places in this race and if Stoneacre Joe can be readily dismissed, then it's 3 horses for 2 places
"the one to beat" this Star Promise and odds on with the rest at 11/4 and 4/1. 2 year olds in a 5 furlong class 6 seller not perhaps the ideal scenario.Can Kauto star not run again today to make my life easier?
1.22 for Star Promise to place - the only one under 1.5 in the place only market. With Stoneacre Joe at 12.5 to place, this tells us surely that it's a 3 horse race.
PRE PROBABILITY!! 2 of the 3 will place, ONE will not.
100 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mille Chief, 5/4 Westlin´ Winds, 14/1 Baccalaureate, Freedom Fire, 20/1 Mymateeric, 28/1 Woodlark Island, 50/1 Father Figure, 66/1 Pezula, 100/1 Coka.
| DIOMED VERDICT: In a probable match, MILLE CHIEF receives a sizeable weight concession from dual hurdles winner Westlin' Winds and is readily preferred. |
Only 2 horses are under 16/1 here, Mille Chief was brought down last time when looking very competitive.Choc Thornton and Alan King are a formidable partnership when on a market leader.
Oliver Greenall has been onboard both of Westlin Winds 2 wins. This is one of those races where we would have to assume that this race will involve 1st and 2nd favourites at the business end. Diomed mentions the sizeable weight concession for Mille Chief - enough to swing things in his favour?
1.11 for Mille Chief to place. I did think this was a shortlister but the price gives little away. Westlin Winds is 1.16 to place
125 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Forpadydeplasterer, 11/4 Tranquil Sea, 7/2 Golden Silver, 13/2 Scotsirish, 8/1 Watson Lake, 9/1 Made In Taipan, 10/1 Carthalawn, 16/1 Mansony.
An interesting race in the live betting market with 3 horses only in this grade 1 race under 12/1.
Form of the front 2 is rock solid. Tranquil holds up the market, is on a hatrick . Forpady has the able assistance of McCoy who makes the trip over to Ireland.
In his last 8 races he has finished in the first 2. The straight 8 here means 3 places Forpadytheplasterer is now a non runner - still 3 places
Tranquil Sea -1.19 to place in newly formed market so not accurate
Golden silver - 1.46 to place
These were 2 of the 3 originally under 12/1
130 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Riverside Theatre, 5/1 El Dancer, 8/1 I Have Dreamed, My Moment, 9/1 Rory Boy, 16/1 Noble Request.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose RIVERSIDE THEATRE after his scintillating chase debut success, though El Dancer was officially rated his equal over hurdles and receives 6lb. |
" hard to oppose" and has the excellent Barry Geraghty onboard for Nicky Henderson -only his 2nd chase run but a 28 length victor in his first.
Now down to 5 runners and 2 places, Riverside Theatre is 1.15 to place ( again the market is illiquid so this is only a guide price)
2 horses are 20/1 or bigger and hopefully will play no part.
Normally I dislike chase betting because the bigger obstacles can create more fallers but from a probability perspective this is looking good for Riverside theatre
155 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Some Present, 3/1 Fionnegas, 4/1 Judge Roy Bean, 5/1 Sweeps Hill, 11/2 Luska Lad, 12/1 Baron De´L, Saludos, 20/1 Hollo Ladies.
Another 8 runner race and 3 places, a high class affair here with the live market showing 3 only under 10/1
A string of 2nd places for Some Present, 2 at the hands of the imperious Dunguib, surely today he can be competitive again for the places 1.3 for some present to place belies the fact this is high class fare.A nice price though
215 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Tejime, 9/1 If You Knew Suzy, 10/1 Freya´s Flight, 12/1 Manana Manana, 14/1 Bandstand, Poet´s Place, 16/1 Place The Duchess, 20/1 Montego Breeze.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TEJIME has done enough to think he could win an ordinary maiden and this looks a golden opportunity. |
The biggest price gapper of the day in the betting forecast.Watch out for Bandstand - a significant market mover in this maiden.1.09 for Tejime to place is ,again, a guide price only given I have to write this earlier than I would like
245 LIMERICK
Another " hard to oppose" Special Token in this bumper
300 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Agus A Vic, 9/2 Top Twig, 7/1 Simonsberg, 8/1 Rudi Trucker, 10/1 Boxer Georg, Royal Ranger, 12/1 Kircassock Vic, Souixsanna Vic, 14/1 Silent Whisper, 16/1 Carlanstown, Lead ´Em Over, 20/1 Leaders Mate, Paddys Star, Send For Paddy, Trideag, 25/1 Security Man, Tagel Rock, 33/1 Euro Seeker.
"the one they all have to beat" , High Class Agus a Vic has not run since May 2009, and will this 1st seasonal run allow the horse to keep up the form shown? Today's ground is soft and 2 mile 7
1.25 to place again a guide price as there's some 4 hours to the off.
SHORTLIST
With the busy Xmas schedule for the football, the ideal really is to get team news because of probable squad rotation. Against perceived weaker opposition Fergie does tend to slightly weaken his squad. Will he do so against Hull today? 1.42 away from home and a good chance of coming in if the United side is strong.
The correct score and +1.5 goals to Hull markets are up on Betfair - expectation for goals? ( but these markets were up in the Chelsea game yesterday!!)
Over 1.5 goals is 1.26
1240 SOUTHWELL - a great PROBABILITY race here - 4 runner and 2 places and a 33/1 outsider.
Default to Star Promise here?
CAUTION - 5 furlong 2 year old class 6 seller is as far removed from the quality of a King George that you can get!
1.22 is the placae price for Star Promise. This is a bet that Star Promise will not get beaten by 1 other horse in this perceived 3 horse race.
125 LEOPARDSTOWN - with Forpadytheplaster a non runner, will this open things up for Tranquil Sea and Golden Silver in this Grade 1 chase?
130 KEMPTON - with the 3rd favourite in the betti ng forecast a non runner, surely this makes Riverside Theatre's chances of placing far better. A 5 horse race now and 2 places, this horse was superb on his sole chase run, winning by 28 lengths.
1.18 to place is the guide price and faith again in Barry Geraghty .2 horses at 25/1 or bigger can hopefully be dismissed, leaving 3 fighting for 2 places.
A chase so we have to assume that Riverside Theatre will put in a clear round of jumping on only his 2nd chase start.
155 LEOPARDSTOWN - can Some Present run well again? Very consistent form and Dunguib has been his victor twice. No Dunguib today though!!
300 DOWNROYAL - Agus a Vic is a high class hunter chaser
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1.42 is certainly very appealing for Man United away to Hull City today. BUT it is likely to be a hard fought win (if indeed it is a win) -this match is not quite as straightforward and rock solid as Celtic yesterday.
1240 SOUTHWELL - is simply included because it is a probability race. It looks like a 3 horse race and 2 places hoping the outsider plays no part. The negative is the race type - 5 furlong class 6 seller for 2 year olds.
Quite simply, you will be backing the horse NOT to get beaten by 2 horses in a 4 horse race ( or if discounting the outsider, NOT to get beaten by one other horse in a 3 horse race)
130 KEMPTON - Riverside Theatre seems to have a lot in his favour in this race - a comprehensive chase victory under today's jockey augurs well for a clear round ( and remember when jumps betting, we alwways have the spectre of a fall) 5 runners and 2 places, 2 of those are 25/1 or bigger. All things being equal, Riverside Theatre seems to have just 2 to realistically beat to place .
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