1245 - Birmingham v Chelsea - 7th (!!) versus top ( 1.6 away side). Since 24th October , Brum have won 6 and drawn 3, 2 draws against Man City and Liverpool. Brum have not played the established top 4 at home, but away from home, they have lost 1-0 to United and 3-1 to Arsenal. Not really ideal in measuring up how a well in form Birmingham will cope at home against the top 4.
Birmingham's home games have been generally tight. 2 0-0's, 3 1-0's , 2 2-1's and the losses have been 1-0 and 2-1.
Chelsea away have lost twice to teams in the top 6 ( remember Brum are 7th) .This makes the 1.6 for Chelsea a tad skinny. Their recent form has been poor too - 1 win, 2 draws and a loss.
3pm Celtic v Hamilton - 1.23 - Celtic are unbeaten at home bar 2 draws against 4th and 5th sides. Against sides around Hamilton's place in the table ( Hamilton are 9th in the league), Celtic at home have won convincingly scoring 3 or more against 8th, 10th and 11th .
Hamilton lost 4-1 away to Rangers which ties in well with Celtic's performances against the bottom 1/2 sides. This leads me to believe that Celtic will score 3 or more at home.
Celtic lost to Hearts in their last match and readers of the previous one a day regarding this game will remember I said it would be a tough game, but prior to the Hearts game, Celtic scored 9 in 3 games.
A definite shortlister this game with expectation for a 3-1, 4-1 scoreline . 1.18 over 1.5 goals
3pm Leeds v Hartlepool 1.38 - top versus 11th. 3 draws v top half sides means the 1.38 is a little short. Leeds only convincing really against bottom sides ( but to be fair they have not played 6 of the top 10 sides yet at home)
Hartlepool's form against top 7 sides have been poor, 2-0 losses to 2nd and 3rd at home, 2-0 and 2-1 losses away . This suggests that the top sides in the division just have the edge over them.
The 2 goal scoreline recurs for Hartlepool
3pm MAn City v Stoke - 1.47 - very much a case of over 2.5 goals at home but a new manager can mean a drastic change of tactics and thus previous form becomes a little redundant under the previous incumbent. This makes it guesswork largely tomorrow regarding how City will play and with which tactics. Will the cavalier Hughes "we'll try to score more than you" attitude remain? Makes this game a toughie to read
3pm West Brom v Peterborough - 1.43 - 2nd top v 2nd bottom and more often than not West Brom at home means goals ( the safe option being over 1.5 goals)
The Baggies have won comfortably against bottom 5 sides and beat Peterborough 3-2 at Peterborough. Generally Brom have succumbed at home against the top teams.
Peterborough have not won away but 3 draws and a 1-0 loss against top 10 sides means they can be frustrating . Newcastle won easily 3-1 - is this a good guide to the potential for West Brom?
I would consider a goals bet here I think although I suspect the Baggies form against lower league sides looks strong enough that they can continue this into today's home game
Newcastle have a 10 point cushion but Brom do have a game in hand. They MUST take advantage of that game in hand especially against such perceived poor opposition and hope that Newcastle stumble.
530pm Liverpool v Wolves 1.32 - against the bottom 11 sides, Liverpool's results have been what we would expect from a "top 4" side.This really is an unpredictable Liverpool side though
A deliberate team change v Man Utd gifted 3 points at Old Trafford and this spoiled a run of 3 wins in 4 games. 9 points from 12
Away to 1st and 2nd , Wolves have lost convincingly. BUT is this Liverpool side to be trusted? Highly inconsistent and their top 4 crown is slipping by the week. I would love to see Benayoun and Torres play as Wolves surely could not contain such quality?
RUGBY UNION
MAGNERS LEAGUE
The 2 big Irish teams play and are priced to win convincingly as they should again weaker Irish opposition
530pm Leinster v Ulster - 1.12
730pm Munster v Connacht - 1.13 - Munster dare not lose at Thomond Park e
Better odds than the bookies but I am viewing the markets some 24+ hours prior to kick off and the hope is that the day brings more interest and more liquidity into these games
HORSE RACING
HUNTINGDON
Inspection in the morning does not augur well generally
1205
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Chamirey, 11/4 Babysitter, 3/1 Quentin Collonges, 6/1 Only The Best, 12/1 Moorlands Teri, 16/1 Fort Severn, 25/1 Knight Woodsman, 25/1 Starlight Air, 33/1 I´ve Been Framed, 40/1 Dream Garden, 40/1 Rokinhorsescience, 66/1 Moonlight Ruby, 100/1 Another Minx, 100/1 Classic Diamond, 100/1 Snow Kaddy, 200/1 Secret Gift.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Chamirey is preferred to Quentin Collonges of the pair at the top but BABYSITTER (nap) did enough on his hurdling debut to encourage hopes that he can prove good enough in what is a decent contest.[Jonathan Neesom]
Interesting betting forecast - only 4 horses under 12/1 the ones to focus on? Only 5 horses under 18/1 - Moorlands Teri now 6/1 the market mover - 1.69 to 2.56 the place prices for these 5.
3pm
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sudden Beat, 3/1 Sun Up, 9/2 Fleet Footed, 8/1 Good Faloue, 10/1 Ridley Taylor, 16/1 Mont Emeraude, 33/1 Jo Joe´s Lot, 33/1 Real Treasure, 40/1 Becky, 66/1 Madame Helga, 66/1 Meant To Bee.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sun Up has the best recent form but Alan King is almost unstoppable in bumpers at this venue (10-24 in the last five years) and SUDDEN BEAT is taken to enhance that record.[Stuart Redding]
Bumper so we really need market consultation nearer the off but as things stand, can we assume that the betting forecast is accurate? If so, there's only 6 horses under 33/1 and Alan King is represented by Sudden Beat. 11.runners down to 7 runners..2 horses are 33/1 or bigger so hopefully 5 runners for 3 places.
3rd and 5th betting forecast favourites are out so this should make life easier for Sudden beat and Sun Up.
1.33 and 1.36 to place but very illiquid markets on Betfair at time of writing ( meaning no n reflective of true place only price)
KEMPTON
A sumptuous card
1245
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bellvano, 5/1 Menorah, 13/2 Inventor, 15/2 Cootehill, 15/2 Dr Livingstone, 17/2 Farleigh House, 14/1 King Olav, 100/1 Another Miracle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BELLVANO was smart in bumpers and looks like being as good over hurdles judging by last month's easy win on his debut at Newbury. He should be tough to beat if jumping proficiently again and can see off Menorah, who may well appreciate the return to 2m.[Mel Cullinan]
Price gapper here and the straight 8 runners make this "tough to beat" Bellvano of great interest. The opposition is full of last time out winners but McCoy the difference and the hope for the first 3 places?
Only 3 horses under 14/1 in the live betting the ones to focus on? Bellvano at 4/6 is holding up well at the head of the market -1.19 to place
230
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Binocular, 7/4 Go Native, 5/1 Starluck, 10/1 Pepe Simo, 40/1 Cape Tribulation, 66/1 Straw Bear, 200/1 King´s Revenge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson (twice) and Noel Meade (three times) have won five of the last nine runnings of this and in BINOCULAR and Go Native respectively, they can be expected to dominate again as the other five runners have upwards of a stone to find according to the handicapper. Provided Binocular's Newcastle flop was indeed just a one-off and he is back to his top-class best, he has the form to win with a bit to spare.[Mel Cullinan]
Can we trust Binocular after his poor Newcastle performance? Was there any proper reason for it?
Only 2 places mean the market should be looked at. Only 4 under 40/1 the ones who should fill the 2 places - money for all of the top 4 horses in the market makes this a tough race to nail one horse of these 4 who will confidently place
305
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Kauto Star, 6/1 Imperial Commander, 8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 14/1 Deep Purple, 16/1 Barbers Shop, 16/1 Nacarat, 20/1 Albertas Run, 40/1 Master Medic, 50/1 Our Vic, 50/1 Tartak, 66/1 Racing Demon, 150/1 Ollie Magern, 500/1 Sandymac.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Looked at in isolation, their Haydock encounter five weeks ago suggests that it is touch and go whether KAUTO STAR can beat Imperial Commander, but Kauto Star also looked highly vulnerable in that race in 2007 and 2008 and when he moved on to Kempton on Boxing Day he was imperious. Imperial Commander is an emerging star and Madison Du Berlais twice showed high-class form last season, but they have something to prove in this race and the probability is surely that Kauto Star will emulate Desert Orchid by winning it for the fourth time. Deep Purple and Nacarat are respected most among the several who throw their hats into the ring for the first time at this level over 3m.[Richard Austen]
Yes, it's only fecking Kauto Star, who should b a great place only price given the field size, but it is Imperial Commander surely who is the value bet here given his superb performance in a controversial photo finish which was not as clear as many would have us believe. Price gapper here 4/7 - - - - 6/1
"very much the one to beat" - the kind of trigger words I look for.Kauto is the only horse in the place only market under 2.38. Imperial commander is 2.38 to place which is a HUGE price for a horse who has been so close to Kauto at Haydock. From a sequencing perspective, Kauto cannot continue winning this race year after year by 8+ lengths, *unless he gets retired before a defeat occurs)
LEOPARDSTOWN
1210
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Gates Of Rome, 8/1 Bold Buccaneer, 10/1 The Real Tyson, 12/1 Royal And Regal, 14/1 Like Your Style, 16/1 Sinbinned, 20/1 Qoubilai, 20/1 Winner Takes Itall, 25/1 Hidden Diamond, 25/1 King´s Bastion, 33/1 Tawazoun, 50/1 Best Buddy, 50/1 Woodbrook Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RITE OF PASSAGE has the potential to become one of the season's leading novice hurdlers and is sure to have been well schooled for his introductionPrice gapper here for Dermot Weld in this maiden hurdle. As you have seen before, a betting forecast price shortening in the live market is a great sign. Currently 2/5 rites of Passsage - 1.12 to place shows market confidence
120
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Alaivan, 5/1 Cross Appeal, 8/1 Action Master, 8/1 Mosstown, 12/1 Our Nana Rose, 16/1 Leblon, 20/1 Carlito Brigante.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALAIVAN has all the appearances of a horse who could feature at the highest level in the juvenile hurdling division. Formerly with John Oxx, he beat the 105-rated Fergus McIver in a 1m4f maiden at Gowran in May and lost only narrowly to Grand Ducal in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes later that month before confirming a liking for 1m4f and heavy ground when beating Von Jawlensky in a Listed race at Roscommon. He jumped fluently when beating Leblon by 15l on his hurdling debut at Gowran, and it was reassuring to see the second go one better, if only by the skin of her teeth, in a maiden at Clonmel just six days later.Only 8 runners here and a strong candidate. Surely good for the first 3? 7 runners now and 3 places still - there are only 2 horses sub 10/1 and Alaivan is 1.12 to place
WINCANTON
355
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Pride In Battle, 5/2 Robin Will, 100/30 Megastar, 10/1 Shoegazer, 12/1 Red Mile, 16/1 Johnny Mullen, 16/1 Landenstown Star, 20/1 Keltic Crisis, 33/1 Dust In Time, 33/1 Peasedown Cortina, 33/1 Victors Serenade, 50/1 Fleet Footed, 66/1 Mccauley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King was very positive about PRIDE IN BATTLE even before his hugely promising debut here and it will take a good one to beat him. My Will's half-brother Robin Will is a fascinating newcomer, but imposing Sandown winner Megastar may prove most troublesome.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Another Alan King bumper horse and one of 3 under 12/1 in the betting forecast. The later betting shows will reveal more. Megastar and RobinWill are both 13/8 - the big move is Megastar.1.20 to plce the front 2 -dare we trust the market so early ( remember bumpers need market consultation)
WOLVERHAMPTON
215
BETTING FORECAST: 1/12 Awesome Act, 14/1 Sweet Child O´mine, 20/1 Dubai Bounty, 20/1 Lovers Causeway, 33/1 Yorksters Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda won this race 12 months ago with a 1-12 chance and can take the race again with another long odds-on chance in AWESOME ACT.[Adrian Cook]
Take the hint here? An Awesome Act of God surely will get this one out of the front 2?
4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and Ryan Moore back onboard - yes a 2 year old novices event but surely..............?
Awesome act is a non runner now leaving 4 horses and 2 places Sweet child o'Mine is the shortest to place at 1.29
SHORTLIST
Celtic are 1.23 to win at home against a team well beaten by Rangers .1.18 over 1.5 goals includes both teams
Munster in the Magners League are justifiably short at 1.09 and should win easily
3pm HUNTINGDON - Sudden beat looks interesting in this race where 3rd and 5th original favs are non runners This should be a 5 runner race and 3 places making current 1.35 APPEALING but the markets are simply not liquid
1245 KEMPTON - Bellvano seems to tick all the right boxes - 1.19 to place is good
305 Kempton - Kauto Star is 1.2 ,the only horse under 2.36 in the place market - likely the price is going to increase in running given the field size and waiting tactics of Ruby
215 WOLVES - With Awesome act out, this becomes a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places - Sweet Child o Mine the default choice being original 2nd fav? 1.29 to place makes some appeal as the biggest price of the day
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Celtic look very appealing today against a side beaten well against Rangers and in a position in the SPL table where Celtic dominate teams and score 3 or more at home.
Sudden Beat looks to have a great probability chance of placing here in what looks a 5 runner race and 3 places in the 3pm Huntingdon - a debutant
Bellvano looks ideally placed to, erm, place here
Kauto star is proven, standout here and 1.2 is a very good place price on his achievements. 2.36 for Imperial Commander is very tempting, and although perhaps not for one a day betting, worthy of note or today for me at least.
At the prices, a lot of the selections today are similarly priced between around 1.19 and 1.3
From a footballing perspective, Celtic look well worthy of justifying the odds of 1.23 at home today in a football match which gives us a trading option if we so require.
From a horse racing perspective Bellvano and Kauto star stand out and are both similarly priced. Bellvano
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