Wednesday 7 March 2012

7/3

Fabulous display from Arsenal  - 3-0 up after 42 minutes meant the 1.04 lay of Milan to qualify was a surefire winner even though they eventually qualified. I was gutted they did not manage that 4th goal.
That was the highlight call from yesterday and I was delighted with the return for such a small liability.
5pm - Giannina v Doxa Dramas - 1.64 home
HEAD TO HEADS
04.03.2012D1Doxa Dramas1-0PAS Giannina
01.05.2011D2Doxa Dramas2-0PAS Giannina
19.12.2010D2PAS Giannina1-0Doxa Dramas
03.08.2009CFDoxa Dramas0-0PAS Giannina
16.04.2006D3NDoxa Dramas0-3PAS Giannina

Last 4 matches under 2.5 goals is very much Doxa.
LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 16th ( bottom) and only 3 points between these sides.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Giannina

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDLDDLWL - only 3 wins at home, against 6th, 13th and 15th ( playing 16th today). Draws against 7th, 8th and 11th all 0-0's. 72% of Giannina's points have come at home. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDLLDLLLWWDLL - last 2 wins against 13th and 15th perhaps significant now playing bottom. Doxa did win 1-0 away this season.

GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs at home. 0.9 scored and 0.9 conceded on average at home. Have kept clean sheets in only 5 matches this season. 

STREAKS - 3 at home without a draw. no win in 3 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Doxa Dramas

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLLLWL - sole win away was against 13th Interestingly, have not scored against top 10 away but scored in each of the 3 away matches against bottom 5.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWLLWWLLW - 3 of last 4 wins came at home for Doxa. 3 of 4 wins have come against 13th home and away, and 14th at home.Have lost home and away v 15th. Having won home and away against 13th, which suggests Doxa " sussed them out".

GOAL TRENDS - 30% overs away from home.Score an average 0.40 away and concede an average 1.8 away. Only 5 matches this season over 2.5 goals for Doxa. 

STREAKS - 5 away without a draw, 11 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 3 draws for Doxa all season have been 0-0. Only 1 win away for Doxa was against a team they beat at home as well, which suggests  to me that perhaps that team were suited to Doxa. The only 3 matches Doxa have scored in away from home were against 12th, 13th and 15th which hints at a possibility they could score today against 14th. The overwhelming trend is for under 2.5 goals. 0.9 scored on average for Giannina at home and 0.4 scored on average for Doxa in away matches.
The only way, for me, Doxa can get points is with a 0-1 win or a 0-0 draw. 0-0 is backable I think given Doxa's reputation.

530pm - Bologna v Juventus - 1.85 away
HEAD TO HEADS
08.12.2011CupJuventus FC2-1 AETBologna FC
21.09.2011D1Juventus FC1-1Bologna FC
26.02.2011D1Juventus FC0-2Bologna FC
24.10.2010D1Bologna FC0-0Juventus FC
21.02.2010D1Bologna FC1-2Juventus FC
27.09.2009D1Juventus FC1-1Bologna FC

Are Bologna a bogey team for Juventus. Only once in the last 6 head to heads have Juve won in 90 minutes.

LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 2nd. A win takes Juve joint top but 2nd on goal difference.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bologna

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLWLWDWLW - 4 defeats at home have come against 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th. 2-2 draw with AC Milan. Bologna have conceded 2-2-3-2-3 at home in the 5 matches against top 7 so far. last 2 home wins against 13th and 19th, and a 0-0 v 17th .

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLLWDDDDWWLW - only one defeat in last 9 was a home defeat against 4th. Overall,against top 6 home and away, Bologna have not won any matches, losing 4, drawing 4 ( all score draws - 3 of which were away) Last 3 wins away at Inter Milan, and wins v 13th and 19th.

GOAL TRENDS - 31% overs at home.Strong under 2.5 goals trend in recent matches. Bologna have kept 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches against 18th, 7th away, 13th at home and 19th at home. 7th are Inter Milan who we know are on a shocking run of form.

STREAKS - 3 at home without a draw, 4 overall. Have scored in last 3 at home and last 4 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Juventus

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDWWDDDWWDD - no defeat away from home yet for Juve. Have not played 12th to 15th inclusive away from home ( playing 14th today). 6 draws have come against top 10. Wins have come against 3rd, 7th, 11th, 16th and 18th. 3 wins were 0-1. Last 6 Juve away matches under 2.5 goals. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWDWDWDWWDDWDD - interesting set of sequences, first we have DW now we have WDDWDD, which if continuing will lead to another win today. No defeat this season makes Juve strong candidates for this to continue.  4 draws in last 5 matches might signal Juven meeting some resistance ( 2 0-0's and 2 1-1's). 

GOAL TRENDS - 17% overs away from home really is a standout stat. 0.58 conceded in each away match, 0.64 overall. Juve have failed to score in only 4 matches this season, and did not lose, so 0-0 the likeliest scoreline from a shut out.

STREAKS - 25 matches overall without defeat. Have scored and conceded in last 3 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Bologna have got something out of the last 3 league head to heads and this must be recognised.  A strong under 2.5 goals bias here as well, especially from Juve away from home.  Expect an unbeaten Juve today with a scoreline that might match unders, eg, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1

730pm - Tottenham v Stevenage - 1.19 home
745pm - APOEL v Lyon - 2.58 away


745pm - Barcelona v Leverkusen - 1.17 home

745pm - West Ham v Watford - 1.57 home - with the Saints drawing yesterday, this represents an ideal opportunity for West Ham to get close.
HEAD TO HEADS
16.08.2011LChWatford FC0-4West Ham
23.09.2008LCWatford FC1-0West Ham
10.02.2007PRWest Ham0-1Watford FC
27.01.2007CupWest Ham0-1Watford FC

LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 17th. It just gets better for the Hammers. 2 matches in hand and a draw for Saints last time out.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Ham

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLWWDWLWWWWDD - losses against 8th, 13th and 15th. 1-0 home wins against 16th and 18th and playing 17th today

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLWDLWWWLWDWDW - only 2 defeats in last 12 and they were away from home.

GOAL TRENDS- 50% overs at home.11 wins, 2 0-0 draws against bottom 9 home and away, where Watford reside.West Ham concede an average of 0.96 goals per game. The opponent leads at half time in only 12.1% of West Ham's matches. West Ham have not conceded in the 2nd 1/4 hour of the first half all season.

STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat, 5 overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Watford

RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWDLLLLDWDLWDL - last 3 away losses v 6th, 12th and 24th, all spread throughout the table signalling inconsistency. 3 wins only away must put the ball firmly in the Hammers' court you would think, one though was against Reading (3rd) 0-2. Against the rest of the top 6 away, ( 4 other matches), Watford have failed to score.In fact Watford have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDDWLLLWWDWLLW - recent defeats v 1st and 12th 3-0 and 4-0.Last 3 wins have come at home. 5 defeats and a 0-2 win in matches played home and away against top 4.

GOAL TRENDS - 38% overs away from home. 0.75 scored on average. 7 of the last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. HAve scored only 7 in the first 1/2 hour of matches this season, compared with West Ham's 18. Strong overs trend recently overall. In 6/8 matches v top 12 away, Watford have failed to score. 

STREAKS - 4 overall without a draw, have conceded in last 6 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Comprehensive away win for Hammers in head to head. Poor Watford form away to top teams and more likely to not score a goal against the very top. Hammers in a rich vein of form, but do note only beat 16th and 18th 1-0 at home and playing 17th today.
Hammers seem more likely to score the first goal, if there is to be one, judging by the above form. Goal trends inconclusive, it could be a 2-0 win you see which cusps overs and unders.

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