Friday 2 March 2012

28/2

2pm - Serbia v Armenia - 1.68 home

13.10.2007ECQArmenia0-0Serbia
11.10.2006ECQSerbia3-0Armenia

Futbol24 has Armenia as the 1st mentioned team. Head to heads out of date pretty much.
Armenia have lost their last 2 friendlies and Serbia have lost their last 5 friendlies and have failed to score in the last 4. Does this hint at experimentation in friendlies? 7 of Serbia's last 8 matches in all competitions under 2.5 goals.
10 of Armenia's last 11 matches in all competitions over 2.5 goals.
Another imponderable friendly folks. I thought I could get an angle in, but no luck.

7pm - Brazil v Bosnia - 1.41 home - the Harlem globetrotters of football return for another meaningless friendly. Friendly in Switzerland, and remember Bosnia have the likes of Dzeko , Begovic, and Vidic( when fit) in the side. That's some serious premiership talent. Brazil will likely shuffle the pack this evening.  I think it is important to look at Brazil in friendlies only.

Wed09/02/11FRIFrance1 - 0BrazilView eventsMore info
Sun27/03/11FRIBrazil2 - 0ScotlandView eventsMore info
Sat04/06/11FRIBrazil0 - 0NetherlandsView eventsMore info
Wed08/06/11FRIBrazil1 - 0RomaniaView eventsMore info
Wed10/08/11FRIGermany3 - 2BrazilView eventsMore info
Mon05/09/11FRIBrazil1 - 0GhanaView eventsMore info
Thu15/09/11FRIArgentina0 - 0BrazilMore info
Thu29/09/11FRIBrazil2 - 0ArgentinaView eventsMore info
Sat08/10/11FRICosta Rica0 - 1BrazilView eventsMore info
Wed12/10/11FRIMexico1 - 2BrazilView eventsMore info
Thu10/11/11FRIGabon0 - 2BrazilView eventsMore info
Mon14/11/11FRIEgypt0 - 2Brazil

Winning 6 of their last 1. Going down marginally against Germany and France, and draws with rivals Argentina and Netherlands not too shabby for 2011 onwards. Under 2.5 goals questionable therefore unless Bosnia can chip in with at least one goal.

Wed03/03/10FRIBosnia-Herzegovina2 - 1GhanaView eventsMore info
Sat29/05/10FRISweden4 - 2Bosnia-HerzegovinaView eventsMore info
Thu03/06/10FRIGermany3 - 1Bosnia-HerzegovinaView eventsMore info
Tue10/08/10FRIBosnia-Herzegovina1 - 1QatarView eventsMore info
Wed17/11/10FRISlovakia2 - 3Bosnia-HerzegovinaView eventsMore info
Fri10/12/10FRIPoland2 - 2Bosnia-HerzegovinaView eventsMore info
Thu10/02/11FRIMexico2 - 0Bosnia-HerzegovinaView eventsMore info
Wed10/08/11FRIBosnia-Herzegovina0 - 0Greece

Bosnian friendlies more of a mixed bag. The only time Brazil have drawn was with 2 0-0's, and this occured in the most recent friendly v Greece. Only 2 wins , tight v Slovakia and Ghana. Bosnia conceded 4-3-1-2-2-2-0 ( the 0 obvious really against dour Greece) so Bosnia certainly vulnerable in defence and more so in Vidic's absence.
730pm - Spain U23 v Egypt U23 - totally illiquid market hints at Spain u23 as strong odds on shots.I cannot find any details for this match.
745pm - Swindon v Burton - 1.41 home
HEAD TO HEADS
17.09.2011L2Burton Albion2-0Swindon Town

I am not au fait with this league but in a day of few opportunities, it's good to practice research.
LEAGUE POSITION  -1st v 15th. 2 games in hand over 2nd placed sees Swindon have a bit of breathing space.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Swindon

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWDWDWWWWWWW - sole loss 1-2 v 7th placed. Solid home form from Swindon - have beaten 12th, 13th , 14th , 17th, 18th scoring 2 minimum and not conceding.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWLWWWWWWWWW - rock solid - winning sequences always end but we normally get a hint in the market odds when that time is about to arrive.

GOAL TRENDS - 53% overs at home. 2.2 scored on average and 0.53 conceded at home.4 overs in last 5. Could conceivably be a 2-0 scoreline so overs as a trade still a possible.Have failed to score in only 1 of last 15 matches, and that ended with a loss. 

STREAKS - 7 match home winning streak, 9 overall. No defeat in 13 and in 9 overall. Have scored in last 7 at home and last 9 overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Burton - already beaten Swindon 2-0 this season - we must factor in " bogey teams" as time and again, teams already beating teams in a season have defied the odds and done so again.

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLDLWWLWLWDLDLL - only 1 win away in last 7 matches away from home. Against the top 14 away, 6 defeats, 3 draws ( all 2-2) and wins against 4th and 11th ( both 0-1). The 0-1 win against 4th placed Southend came in the 4th match of the season so is not representative of current away ability I would suggest.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWDLLLDDLDL - 11 of last 12 matches without a win. Last 5 draws were score draws, 4 of them 1-1 so perhaps a saver on the 1-1. The 2-0 loss to Cheltenham ( 2nd placed) came last match. Maybe, just maybe, Burton could learn from that and be more defensive away to top, OR this is a good gauge for the likely scoreline against Swindon.

GOAL TRENDS - 69% overs away from home. Only 2 of the last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 clean sheet in last 19 matches makes Burton vulnerable to at least one goal today. 

STREAKS - have conceded in last 10 away and last 14 overall. No win in 5 away and 9 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS 2-0, 3-0 really standouts here, scuppered only by a Burton goal or a positive Burton reaction to losing 2-0 away to 2nd place last time out. Also, Swindon have 2 games in hand at the top - complacency? Not really a must win. This is wins at home v 11 of last 12 without a win overall . I think the over 2.5 goals trade might be successful but only if we get out after an earlyish 2nd goal. 
Question - are Burton a bogey team? They did beat Swindon this season.


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