Tuesday 6 March 2012

6/3

745pm - Arsenal v AC Milan - 2.14 home - after the Milan defeat, 4-0, Arsenal have scored 0-5-2. Interestingly the 5 were scored at home against Spurs. Is this a coincidence? 5 goals is precisely what the Arse need this evening, albeit they will be finished pretty much if AC Milan score.
In their last 3 home matches, Arse have scored 7-5-2 but AC Milan are a little more illustrious than Blackburn.
Importantly though, Arsenal have conceded in last 4 home matches.

Tue16/08/11UCLArsenal1 - 0UdineseView eventsMore info
Wed24/08/11UCLUdinese1 - 2ArsenalView eventsMore info
Tue13/09/11UCLBorussia Dortmund1 - 1ArsenalView eventsMore info
Wed28/09/11UCLArsenal2 - 1Olympiakos PiraeusView eventsMore info
Wed19/10/11UCLOlympique Mars…0 - 1ArsenalView eventsMore info
Tue01/11/11UCLArsenal0 - 0Olympique Mars…More info
Wed23/11/11UCLArsenal2 - 1Borussia DortmundView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLOlympiakos Piraeus3 - 1ArsenalView eventsMore info
Wed15/02/12UCLMilan4 - 0Arsenal

Recent Champions League form sees a lack of goals. It was back in 2010 at home to Braga and Shaktar that Arsenal scored 5 and 6 goals.

Tue09/03/10UCLArsenal5 - 0PortoView eventsMore info
Wed31/03/10UCLArsenal2 - 2BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Wed15/09/10UCLArsenal6 - 0Sporting BragaView eventsMore info
Tue19/10/10UCLArsenal5 - 1Shakhtar DonetskView eventsMore info
Wed08/12/10UCLArsenal3 - 1PartizanView eventsMore info
Wed16/02/11UCLArsenal2 - 1BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Tue16/08/11UCLArsenal1 - 0UdineseView eventsMore info
Wed28/09/11UCLArsenal2 - 1Olympiakos PiraeusView eventsMore info
Tue01/11/11UCLArsenal0 - 0Olympique Mars…More info
Wed23/11/11UCLArsenal2 - 1Borussia Dortmund

There is a historical precedent for Arsenal scoring 5+ goals at home in the Champions league, but note, too, that Arsenal concede at least 1 goal regularly at home. The only team to beat Arsenal at home in the Champions League since 2004 was Man Utd. So Arsenal must gain some great confidence from this.

Wed01/02/12SEALazio2 - 0MilanView eventsMore info
Sun05/02/12SEAMilan0 - 0NapoliView eventsMore info
Wed08/02/12COIMilan1 - 2JuventusView eventsMore info
Sat11/02/12SEAUdinese1 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Wed15/02/12UCLMilan4 - 0ArsenalView eventsMore info
Sun19/02/12SEACesena1 - 3MilanView eventsMore info
Sat25/02/12SEAMilan1 - 1JuventusView eventsMore info
Sat03/03/12SEAPalermo0 - 4Milan

A look at Milan's recent form has seen them score 4-3-1-4 in their last 4 matches.

Sun23/10/11SEALecce3 - 4MilanView eventsMore info
Sat29/10/11SEARoma2 - 3MilanView eventsMore info
Tue01/11/11UCLBATE1 - 1MilanView eventsMore info
Sat19/11/11SEAFiorentina0 - 0MilanMore info
Fri02/12/11SEAGenoa0 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLViktoria Plzeň2 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Sun11/12/11SEABologna2 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Tue20/12/11SEACagliari0 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Sun08/01/12SEAAtalanta0 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Sun22/01/12SEANovara0 - 3MilanView eventsMore info
Wed01/02/12SEALazio2 - 0MilanView eventsMore info
Sat11/02/12SEAUdinese1 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Sun19/02/12SEACesena1 - 3MilanView eventsMore info
Sat03/03/12SEAPalermo0 - 4Milan

Only 1 defeat away recently saw 2 77+ minute goals from Lazio. Note that Milan have scored 2+ in 9 of their last 10 away games.
I watched the 0-4 win over Palermo and it was a master class in finishing from ibrahimovich.

Wed09/03/11UCLTottenham Hotspur0 - 0MilanMore info
Tue13/09/11UCLBarcelona2 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Wed28/09/11UCLMilan2 - 0Viktoria PlzeňView eventsMore info
Wed19/10/11UCLMilan2 - 0BATEView eventsMore info
Tue01/11/11UCLBATE1 - 1MilanView eventsMore info
Wed23/11/11UCLMilan2 - 3BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLViktoria Plzeň2 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Wed15/02/12UCLMilan4 - 0Arsenal

An unimpressive , but I suppose, effective campaign for Milan Key players include Ibra, Boetang and Robinho who have pretty much been the mainstay of the goalscorers in recent Champions League matches.

Wed09/03/11UCLTottenham Hotspur0 - 0MilanMore info
Tue13/09/11UCLBarcelona2 - 2MilanView eventsMore info
Tue01/11/11UCLBATE1 - 1MilanView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLViktoria Plzeň2 - 2Milan

Last 3 away CL matches all score draws which pretty much sounds the death knell to any Arse chance of a comeback.
With Arsenal needing 4, it is obvious that we should hope for over 3.5 goals and an open game. Arsenal, though, will need to balance a clean sheet with a need to constantly create chances. Milan are adept at away draws in this competition and scoring 2 against the likes of Barcelona tell you they are dangerous.
Laying Milan to qualify at 1.04 is a bet to nothing. It will cost you £4 liability for every potential £100 profit. And imagine if Arsenal score 2 goals early on to no reply. But a Milan goal will end this bet most likely.
For you romantics out there, remember 2005 CL Final, 3-0 up at halftime. Remember the 4-1 lead against Deportivo La Coruna who won 4-0 in the 2nd leg. Milan may be breaking out in a cold sweat if you remind them!
Over 4.5 goals is 5.5 currently and is worth consideration for " believers". If Milan score early , though, you get the feeling Arsenal will be resigned to defeat.

745pm - Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.74 home

Sat28/01/12PRLFeirense1 - 2BenficaView eventsMore info
Sun05/02/12LECBenfica3 - 0MarítimoView eventsMore info
Sat11/02/12PRLBenfica4 - 1NacionalView eventsMore info
Wed15/02/12UCLZenit3 - 2BenficaView eventsMore info
Mon20/02/12PRLVitória Guimarães1 - 0BenficaView eventsMore info
Sat25/02/12PRLAcadémica0 - 0BenficaMore info
Fri02/03/12PRLBenfica2 - 3Porto

A recent poor run must do nothing for confidence, or is that run because benfica have had one eye on this most lucrative of games. Porto won the top of the table clash with an 87th minute winner.Benfica were not entitled to win that tough match. The 2 previous saw Benfica score none and concede only 1.
The tight defeat by Porto last time out the only defeat since April 2011 at home in all competitions.
Let's look closer at Benfica in the CL

Wed24/08/11UCLBenfica3 - 1TwenteView eventsMore info
Wed14/09/11UCLBenfica1 - 1Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Tue27/09/11UCLOţelul Galaţi0 - 1BenficaView eventsMore info
Tue18/10/11UCLBasel0 - 2BenficaView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLBenfica1 - 1BaselView eventsMore info
Tue22/11/11UCLManchester United2 - 2BenficaView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLBenfica1 - 0Oţelul GalaţiView eventsMore info
Wed15/02/12UCLZenit3 - 2Benfica


United could not beat Benfica . To be honest, they have met quite easy opposition bar United and Zenit. Benfica did get the priceless 2 away goals which could be made to work by a 1-0 win today.

Tue14/09/10UCLBenfica2 - 0Hapoel Tel AvivView eventsMore info
Tue02/11/10UCLBenfica4 - 3Olympique LyonView eventsMore info
Tue07/12/10UCLBenfica1 - 2Schalke 04View eventsMore info
Wed27/07/11UCLBenfica2 - 0TrabzonsporView eventsMore info
Wed24/08/11UCLBenfica3 - 1TwenteView eventsMore info
Wed14/09/11UCLBenfica1 - 1Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLBenfica1 - 1BaselView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLBenfica1 - 0Oţelul Galaţi

4/5 CL defeats at home since 2003 have been 0-1. Worryingly, Benfica have conceded 1 goal in 3 of last 4 matches. A 1-1 will do today. Zenit would be denied on the away goals rule. Recent home form since 2010 is promising, bar the 1-2 loss to Schalke.
Only 1 defeat in 19 in all competitions for Zenit, came away in a friendly.A recent 2-2 away draw with CSKA Moscow a nice confidence booster for Zenit ( scoring away!)
Overall, in all competitions, away from home, Zenit have scored 2-5-2-1-3-2-2-3-1-0-1-2 -slackened a bit in last 4 matches but generally a sign that Zenit travel well.
4 of Zenit's 5 defeats in the Champions LEague since 2008 came away from home to the likes of Juve, Real Madrid, Auxerre and APOEL. A bit of a worry with those last 2!

Wed17/09/08UCLJuventus1 - 0ZenitView eventsMore info
Wed05/11/08UCLBATE0 - 2ZenitView eventsMore info
Wed10/12/08UCLReal Madrid3 - 0ZenitView eventsMore info
Tue27/07/10UCLUnirea Urziceni0 - 0ZenitView eventsMore info
Wed25/08/10UCLAuxerre2 - 0ZenitView eventsMore info
Tue13/09/11UCLAPOEL2 - 1ZenitView eventsMore info
Wed19/10/11UCLShakhtar Donetsk2 - 2ZenitView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLPorto0 - 0Zenit

A poor run in the Champions League, and a 0-0 against Portugeuse opponents last time out. Best case away for Zenit? Any scoreline to nil will see them through. An away goal will leave Benfica with a mountain to climb. 5 times in 8 away CHampions League matches, though, Zenit have failed to score. That must be a concern.
1-0 sees Benfica through with the most efficient scoreline available to them. 0-0 sees Zenit through.
Benfica have only lost 1 recently in the CL at home. Zenit have only won 1 away in the CL away from home.
Tough to call. Unders looks obvious with a Kremlin sized bus for Zenit to park infront of the onion bag.


745pm - Birmingham v Chelsea - 1.76 away - the facup that was squatting clown Andre Villa " Oh arse" is now gone and to replace him King Midas, Di Matteo, who did such an, ahem, clears throat, "interesting" job at West Brom before he was sacked.
Samaritans number is being distributed to all Chelsea fans this evening.
With a season in array, a trip away to Brum will be a toughie, but there is no getting away, still, from the power of Drogba, the guile of new England man Sturridge and Juan Mata you has been amongst the goals.
Brum have only lost 1 match in all competitions this season and that was 1-2 v Notts Forest 2 matches ago.
At home, Brum have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 games, where previously , in 12 games prior to those 2 matches, they conceded none in 7 matches and 1 in 5 matches.
3 of the 4 goals conceded came in the 2nd half.

Sat07/01/12FACBirmingham City0 - 0Wolverhampton …More info
Wed18/01/12FACWolverhampton …0 - 1Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat28/01/12FACSheffield United0 - 4Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat18/02/12FACChelsea1 - 1Birmingham City

Clean sheets dominated in the FA Cup in 2012 apart from when they met Chelsea.That match saw Brum score first.
At home, a single 0-0 v Wolves ( another Premiership side -albeit just about).

Mon02/01/12PRLWolverhampton …1 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sun08/01/12FACChelsea4 - 0PortsmouthView eventsMore info
Sat14/01/12PRLChelsea1 - 0SunderlandView eventsMore info
Sat21/01/12PRLNorwich City0 - 0ChelseaMore info
Sat28/01/12FACQueens Park Ra…0 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue31/01/12PRLSwansea City1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sun05/02/12PRLChelsea3 - 3Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat11/02/12PRLEverton2 - 0ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat18/02/12FACChelsea1 - 1Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLNapoli3 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat25/02/12PRLChelsea3 - 0Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sat03/03/12PRLWest Bromwich …1 - 0Chelsea

2012 for Chelsea has been an annus shoitus .Wins have come against less than star laden opposition.

Wed23/11/11UCLBayer Leverkusen2 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat03/12/11PRLNewcastle United0 - 3ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat17/12/11PRLWigan Athletic1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Thu22/12/11PRLTottenham Hotspur1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Mon02/01/12PRLWolverhampton …1 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat21/01/12PRLNorwich City0 - 0ChelseaMore info
Sat28/01/12FACQueens Park Ra…0 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue31/01/12PRLSwansea City1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat11/02/12PRLEverton2 - 0ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLNapoli3 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat03/03/12PRLWest Bromwich …1 - 0Chelsea

Away from home, the Chelsea problems are quite clean.2 wins in 2012, one against Wolves, and the other QPR, again less than illustrious opponents. The recent 1oss by West Brom another result against a West Midlands opponent.
Against Championship style sides, such as Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Wigan, away its 2 wins 1-2 and 0-1, and 3 draws, 2 1-1 and one 0-0.
Chelsea have only lost 1 match in the FA Cup in 90 minutes since JAnuary 2007.

Sat19/02/05FACNewcastle United1 - 0ChelseaMore info
Fri27/01/06FACEverton1 - 1ChelseaMore info
Mon19/03/07FACTottenham Hotspur1 - 2ChelseaMore info
Sun15/04/07FACBlackburn Rovers1 - 2EChelseaMore info
Sat26/01/08FACWigan Athletic1 - 2ChelseaMore info
Sat08/03/08FACBarnsley1 - 0ChelseaMore info
Wed14/01/09FACSouthend United1 - 4ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat14/02/09FACWatford1 - 3ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat07/03/09FACCoventry City0 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat18/04/09FACArsenal1 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat23/01/10FACPreston North End0 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat10/04/10FACAston Villa0 - 3ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat29/01/11FACEverton1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat28/01/12FACQueens Park Ra…0 - 1Chelsea

Good form away solely in the Cup too, sees 3 clean sheets in last 4 matches for Chelsea. They have, though, stopped scoring the 2+ which pervades from March 2007 to April 2010.Win against QPR courtesy of a penalty perhaps underlines Chelsea's recent problems.
I hate getting involved in new manager matches as teams could put in a shock result. As things stand, it would seem, on form alone in the FA Cup, advantage Chelsea away from home.
Sole home match in FA Cup for Brum was a 0-0 v Wolves in 2012.
Unders expected early on and a traditional pointer towards 2nd half goals if there are to be some? I would lay QPR if they score first.

745pm - Sheff Wed v Bury - 1.56 home
HEAD TO HEADS
16.08.2011L1Bury FC2-1Sheffield Wed
10.08.2010LCSheffield Wed1-0Bury FC
26.07.2008CFBury FC0-2Sheffield Wed

Only one recent head to head of interest saw Bury win in August 2011
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 14th. Playing catch up with the top 2 and playing a game extra too puts the owls at a slight disadvantage.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Sheff Wed

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWDWDWLDWLW - superb winning run at the start of the season has become a little sporadic of late.All dropped points have come against top 10 at home, losing 0-1 to Charlton and Stevenage, and drawing against 4th, 9th and 10th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWWLDWDWLLLWD - inconsistent form overall sees only 2 wins in last 7 matches.  Bury's 2-1 win this season a sign that Sheff Wed are not good away from home. Draws have come against top 4 or bottom 2. Dare we avoid the draw today?

GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs at home. Last 4 matches under 1.5 goals with 2 1-0 losses, a 1-0 win and a 0-0. Is this a sign of focus on defence? Owls failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.

STREAKS - 3 at home without a draw. No goal conceded in 2 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bury

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLLLWLWWWLWLLDLL - Bury had a recent run of 4 wins in 5, but this has changed to 4 losses in 5 now. 1-1 draw away to 1st, 4-0 loss away to Sheff Utd in 2nd could signal a tough evening against 3rd placed. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWLWLDDLLDLD - no win in 8. Against the top 10 home and away, 7 defeats, 5 draws ( 4 score draws), and one win, v Sheff Wed back in august 2011.Both teams have scored and conceded in last 7 matches. Hence, the draws all score draws recently.

GOAL TRENDS - 59% overs away from home. Average 1.29 scored away in each match. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. The 1-1 draws as well also hint at the possibility of over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 15 matches.

STREAKS - Have conceded in last 8 away and last 15 overall. No win in 5 away and 8 overall. Have scored in last 3 away and last 7 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the 2-1 Bury win was their only one home and away against top 10. In August 2011 though which suggests that this may be an aberration and, as this was an early season match, perhaps the Owls were caught cold.
All dropped points at home have come against top 10 at home for Sheff Wed, which suggests that they should not lose against 14th. 
Only 2 wins in last 7 matches for Sheff Wed overall might make them vulnerable? Note too, all draws have come either against top 4 or bottom 2 which suggests a lay the draw strategy?
56% and 59% overs for both sides suggests goals, but what do we make of Sheff Wed's last 4 matches being under 1.5 goals. Owls have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
1-1 draw for Bury away to 1st, 4-0 loss to 2nd suggests they are unlikely to win today.4 losses in 5 away could be an ideal time for the Owls to meet Bury. No win in 8 for Bury overall quite like 2 wins in 7 for Owls ( signals out of form).
Bury have scored and conceded in each of last 7 and this looks probable today ( conceding at least).
Goal trends a concern given Owls' sudden 4 under 1.5 goals matches. Bury look opposable . Perhaps delay entry into the market to get a better price. Owls recent lack of goals might ensure a better price and a 0-0 for a short while

745pm - Southampton v Ipswich - 1.69 home
HEAD TO HEADS
16.08.2011LChIpswich Town2-5Southampton
23.01.2010CupSouthampton2-1Ipswich Town
03.03.2009LChIpswich Town0-3Southampton

Only 1 head to head of relevance saw a humdinger of a game, and take note, Saints scored 5. Looking at Dundee v Inverness yesterday, Dundee scored 3 in last 2 head to heads and scored 3 again yesterday, so this could be an important pointer.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 14th. Yes, a point clear of West Ham but have played a match more than West Ham, so a win required to heap the pressure back on the Hamsters.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Saints.

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWWWWDWLLDWW - superb form but a slight hiccup in last 5 saw only 2 ghome defeats of the season against 11th and 21st. On both occasions Southampton did not score. Having scored 5 away at Ipswich, albeit at the start of the season, there is a suggestion the Saints won't get shut out this evening.  Those 2 defeats were the only matches in which the Saints did not score at home.  Against 12th, 13th, 16th and 17th, wins by 2+ goals without conceding. Playing 14th today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLWLDDWDWWW - the last 5 defeats for Southampton , again, have seen them fail to score. 5 of the defeats came away from home. 4 wins in last 5, unbeaten in 7 sees Saints in rude health. 

GOAL TRENDS - 59% overs at home. Score an average 2.17 and concede an average 0.70 at home. Have scored 23 in the first half and conceded only 7 this season. Lambert, do Prado and Lallana are 3 key goalscorers at home. IF , especially, Lambert is missing, then saints could be vulnerable.5 clean sheets in last 6 sees Saints strong defensively and remember they won to nil  against teams around Ipswich in the league.

STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak, 3 overall. No defeat in 7 overall and have scored in last 5 overall. 3 consecutive clean sheets.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Ipswich

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDWDLLLWDLLLWWL - 2 recent away wins have come against 22nd and 23rd, in the midst of 4 defeats. Not something the Saints should be worried about.Ipswich did beat West Ham 0-1 away from home,  but against the rest of the top 8, they have 4 losses and 2 draws,  - 3 of those defeats without scoring. The draw to 5th was a 0-0.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDLLLDLWWWWLW - what on earth do we make of recent form which has seen a 5-1 home win over West Ham, and 3-0 and 3-1 wins against Cardiff and Bristol, as well as 2-3 away win v 22nd and 0-1 away win v 23rd.  Is this quite simply a case of Ipswich being better at home than away?

GOAL TRENDS - 65% overs away from home. 70% overs this season suggests goals. Average 2.18 conceded away from home.  9 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. 3 clean sheets in last 4. Have only failed to score in 2 of last 15 matches.

STREAKS - 6 away without a draw, 7 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the first thing which really grabs me is the 5 wins in last 6 for Ipswich overall. There is nothing like winning form to breed confidence.
SAints only tend to lose when they do not score, and having scored 5 away v Ipswich in August 2011, a defeat to nil looks unlikely. Recent losses to 11th and 21st is very unsaintly. But against teams around Ipswich's in the league, Saints have won by 2+ goals without conceding, and remember they average just over 2 per home match and Ipswich average over 2 conceded away.
Over 2.5 goals might be the call given Ipswich's propensity for overs of late. 
Lambert must play for Saints and goals backers.
Is Ipswich's recent winning form just down to them being better at home than away? ( 2 of the wins were away v 22nd and 23rd). 3 clean sheets in last 4 matches ( remember Saints only seem to lose when they don't score) makes this a headscratcher. Which Ipswich shows up? The recent winning form Ipswich, or the Ipswich conceding 5 away and losing 4 away to top 8 , 3 of them without scoring.

745pm - Swindon v Dag and Red - 1.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 22nd

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

8pm - Reading v Portsmouth - 1.51 home
HEAD TO HEADS

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

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