Saturday, 10 March 2012

10/3

12pm - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Erzgebirge - 1.38 home
HEAD TO HEADS
16.09.2011D2Erzgebirge Aue2-4Fortuna Düsseldorf
02.04.2011D2Fortuna Düsseldorf3-0Erzgebirge Aue
05.11.2010D2Erzgebirge Aue1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf
14.03.2009D3Fortuna Düsseldorf0-0Erzgebirge Aue
20.09.2008D3Erzgebirge Aue0-1Fortuna Düsseldorf

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 12th - a win takes Dusseldorf 2nd . erze have 2 games in hand of most opponents.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - DUSS

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWWLDD - Loss v 2nd, draws v 3rd and 14th, hint at an ability to cope with 12th. Have scored 2+ in all wins.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWDLDDLDW - sticky patch lately - all bar 2 draws coming away from home.Both defeats against top 6 sides.

GOAL TRENDS - 64% overs at home. Average 2.16 scored at home. Have only failed to score in 3 matches this season. General unders trend in really recent matches.

STREAKS - 2 match home drawing streak. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Erze

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDDWLLWLDLL - only 2 wins away have come against 5th and 8th. Defeats to 1st, 2nd and 6th.  3 of 4 draws have come against bottom 5 sides.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLLWLLDDLDLW - last win against 16th.All draws against 7th and lower in the league. 5 defeats and a 2-3 away win home and away to top 6

GOAL TRENDS - 42% overs away from home. Concede 1.92 on average away. Recent trend to unders with 1-1's which also pervaded Duss's recent scorelines.  Only 4 clean sheets this season. HAve conceded 2 or more in all bar 1 of home and away matches against top 6.

STREAKS - HAve conceded in last 11 away and last 13 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - home team have only failed to score in 3, away side have kept only 4 clean sheets all season. Home side generally score 2+ in wins. Away side have conceded 2+ in 5 of 6 matches home and away against top 6 teams.
All points to over 2.5 ( try over 3.5 ?) goals and a possibility of both teams scoring.Likely win by home side scoring 2 minimum

1245pm - Bolton v QPR - 2.56 home - unlikely to be 4-0 again with Sparky in charge of QPR.
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011PRQueens Park Rangers0-4Bolton Wanderers

LEAGUE POSITION - 19th v 16th and only 2 points separating these 2 puts this match into the   "best team on the day" category as this is effectively a relegation 6 pointer. Very hard to read. And the market is telling you as much.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bolton

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLLWLLLDWDL - wins against 7th and 9th at home. Most recently against Liverpool, followed by a draw against Arsenal 0-0 and a 1-2 loss to Wigan. Talk about unreadable!

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLDWLWDLLLL - Bolton seemed to spring into life with 2 wins and 2 draws in 5 matches against Everton, Liverpool and draws against Arsenal and Wolves both at home. Then they lost 4, conceding 2 in each match, against Norwich, Wigan, Chelsea and Man City.3 wins ( all away) a draw and a loss against bottom 5 home and away.

GOAL TRENDS - 62% overs at home. Average 2.07 conceded per home match.Opponent scores first in 74% of matches. Have scored 14 in last 1/2 hour of matches.

STREAKS - 2 at home without a win, 5 overall. HAve conceded in last 4.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - QPR

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWLLWLLDLLDL - wins have come against 9th, 13th and 18th away from home, but very recently ( i.e. under Sparky), it's 5 defeats  and 3 draws away. HAve lost away to 17th and 20th.  6 of 8 defeats away have come against top 11 sides. It seems QPR set up away very differently against top sides ( as seen by 3 1-0 defeats away) than with relegation fodder ( 3-2 loss to Blackburn, 0-3 win v Wolves and 2-0 loss to Wigan).

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLLWDLLLD - only 1 win recently overall was a home 3-1 v Wigan. QPR are struggling. 

GOAL TRENDS - 54% overs away from home. As I said earlier, it seems QPR are more open against similar relegation threatened sides and more likely to produce goal laden games. Have conceded in their last 18 matches.

STREAKS - 7 away without a win, have conceded in last 10 away. Only 1 win in last 15.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is the kind of match I would tend to avoid. Remembering the time of the season and the problems these 2 are having, this is a traditional 6 pointer. I would take my cues from QPR's matches against bottom 6 away rather than their heroic 1-0 defeats to top sides. This might hint at an open game and goals. Both sides in poor form, only 2 points separate them and not a match to ignite any excitement. Bolton concede first in 3 of every 4 matches. That might be an interesting angle in.

230pm - B Munich v Hoffenheim - 1.28 home
HEAD TO HEADS
01.10.2011D1Hoffenheim0-0Bayern München
12.02.2011D1Bayern München4-0Hoffenheim
21.09.2010D1Hoffenheim1-2Bayern München
15.01.2010D1Bayern München2-0Hoffenheim
08.08.2009D1Hoffenheim1-1Bayern München
16.05.2009D1Hoffenheim2-2Bayern München
0-0 last time out. What chance that happening again? BAyern have won last 2 head to heads at home without conceding.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 10th. Dortmund have a solid gap now but are playing away. A glimmer of hope for Bayern ?

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - bayern

RECENT HOME FORM  -LWWWWWLWWWWW - no draw at home. More likely to win. Defeats have been 0-1 against 1st and 3rd.Have scored 2,3,4,5,7 in all wins at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWWLWDWDWL - Last LLDDL have all come away from home. 2 or 3 goal wins at home last 4 without conceding. 

GOAL TRENDS - 58% overs at home.3 scored and 0.25 conceded on average at home is really standout. OR 36 scored and 3 conceded. Last 6 matches under 2.5 goals includes 3 2-0 wins at home. Gomez, Ribery and Robben your go to men for goals at home. Gomez, if absent , will be a huge miss.

STREAKS - 5 match home winning streak. 12 at home without a draw. Have scored in last 5 and no goal conceded in last 4 at home.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Hoff ( just hope they don't sing or run around in red speedos)

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLLLLLWLDW - wins away against 9th, 11th 12th and 16th. Have lost 5 adn drawn 1-1 against top 8 away from home. All defeats away by 2 or 3 goals . Have played 5 against top 7 away , scoring a goal in 4 of the matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWDDLDDDWD - do note that 5 of last 6 draws came at home. Only 1 draw away was a 1-1 with Werder Bremen.Last defeat was 3-1 away to 1st in the league. Playing 2nd away today.

GOAL TRENDS - 42% overs away from home. Very strong unders trend lately helped in no small part by 6 1-1 and 2 0-0 draws. Have failed to score in 6 this season. Have scored 63% of goals in the first half.

STREAKS - HAve scored and conceded in last 6 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - immediately for me the numbers 2 and 3 spring up. 2+ goals scored in wins at home by Bayern. 2 or 3 conceded in away defeats by Hoff. Conceded 3-3-2-2-2 in defeats away to top 8. Recent spate of draws for Hoff punctuated by a 3-1 defeat to Dortmund. 1-1 saver might be a good starter as Hoff could score. Over 3.5 goals could be a goer if Hoff do score ( and early). Form indicates a BAyern win scoring 2 minimum. Hoff have showed they can score against top sides but against a team averaging 0.25 goals conceded at home ( or 36 scored and 2 conceded!!!)

230pm - Mgladbach v Freiburg - 1.6 home
HEAD TO HEADS
01.10.2011D1SC Freiburg1-0Mönchengladbach
07.05.2011D1Mönchengladbach2-0SC Freiburg
12.12.2010D1SC Freiburg3-0Mönchengladbach
27.02.2010D1Mönchengladbach1-1SC Freiburg
27.09.2009D1SC Freiburg3-0Mönchengladbach
11.05.2008D2Mönchengladbach2-3SC Freiburg
It would seem Freiburg at home win, Mgladbach at home have struggled in 2008 ( how relevant this head to head?) and 2010.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 17th, hence the reason the market is sweet on the home side.Mgladbach, like Bayern, are waiting for Dortmund to slip up.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Mgladbach

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWDWWDWWWD - no defeat at home . Have only played one of the bottom 5 at home, a 1-0 win over bottom. This is inconclusive. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWWDWWDL - last 2 losses against 9th and 16th away, both 1-0 defeats.  And they have lost away to 16th and 17th 1-0. Yes I know they are playing at home today but it shows a little vulnerability.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home -have scored in all home matches, inferring that if you were expecting a draw, it would be a score draw. 2.08 scored on average at home. All 6 times Mgladbach have failed to score, they have come away.They score nearly 70% of their goals in the first half of matches.Have scored 20 and conceded 6 in first half. The opponent leads at half time in only 12.5 % of matches.

STREAKS - 12 at home without defeat. Have scored in last 12 at home. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Freiburg

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLWDLLLL - sole win away v 9th. Against top 8 away, have lost 4 , conceding 7-4-5-4 - if the market was expecting that again today, Mgladbach's price would be lower than 1.6

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDDLLWLDLDLW - last 2 wins came at home.4 of last 5 defeats came away. Hint of Jekyll and Hyde about recent home and away form.

GOAL TRENDS - 82% overs away from home is a real standout stat and with Mgladbach at 50/50 overs at home, perhaps we should be taking our cues from this stat. Have conceded in all away matches. 3.18 conceded on average away. 3/4 of points have come at home this season. Opponent scores first in 2/3rd of matches and leads at halftime in 50% of matches.

STREAKS - 4 match away losing streak. 5 away without a win. 4 away without a draw. Have conceded in last 11 away matches

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - here we have a team which has scored in all home matches against a team conceding in all away matches. Freiburg have been royally spanked meeting top teams,  conceding 7-4-5-4 against top 8 away. IF you think this continues today, then 1.6 for Mgladbach offers extreme value. I would take my cues for overs from Freiburg, but a note of caution that Mgladbach are NOT priced to score 4+ goals today ( they would be around 1.2 if they were).
Freiburg get 75% of their points from home matches, indeed they have favourable results at home when Mgladbach visited. At Mgladbach's home, in head to heads, it's 1-1 and 2-0 .
I expect this type of scoreline today.
Overs is determinant on whether you think Mgladbach can replicate other top 8 sides when Freiburg visit.

3pm - Aston Villa v Fulham - 2.6 home - another match which, at first glance, does not appeal.  And no surprise they have drawn last 3. Beware though, of new manager itis for Villa.
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011PRFulham FC0-0Aston Villa
05.02.2011PRAston Villa2-2Fulham FC
06.11.2010PRFulham FC1-1Aston Villa
30.01.2010PRFulham FC0-2Aston Villa
30.08.2009PRAston Villa2-0Fulham FC
09.05.2009PRFulham FC3-1Aston Villa

LEAGUE POSITION -  15th v 8th and only 6 points between them. So at first glance top 10 for Fulham looks impressive, but it does not tell a story of a tight midriff in the Premiership table.Villa, on 30 points seem safe, with those below starting on 22 points.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Villa

RECENT HOME FORM - WDDWLWLLLLDDL - you want exciting football, then don't hire McLiesh.  Catch 22 now for Villa. The natives are restless at home with no win in 7 matches, this surely increases the pressure on Mcleish and team for the home win, they start to dread playing at home, making at elusive home win all the more difficult.Wins have come against 11th, 17th and 20th. Against the 6 of the top 10 Villa have played at home, they have lost 5 and drew 1-1 with Newcastle.  Do you realistically term Fulham a top 10 side, despite their current position?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWLDWDLLDD - last 3 wins came away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - 39% overs at home I suppose typically Mcleish. Only 6 clean sheets all season. Have conceded in last 9 home matches.

STREAKS - 7 at home without a win, 5 overall. Have conceded in last 9 at home. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Fulham

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLWDDLDDLLW - wins against 16th and 20th away from home continues a very poor away form which is becoming synonymous with fulham. 3 losses have come against 14th, 17th and 18th, which makes determining what will happen against 15th a little difficult. We can say that Fulham have not drawn away against bottom 7 sides ( of which Villa are one).

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDDWLWDLWWW - 3 match winning run, albeit 1 away 0-1 v QPR. A real Jekyll and Hyde home and away team , particularly against bottom 6 where they have won 3 at home and drawn 2 . For example, Fulham at home beat Wolves 5-0 yet lose 2-0 away to the same side. Only 1 defeat away in last 6 matches sees Fulham is a good frame of mind.

GOAL TRENDS - 23% overs away from home. Score an average 0.62 away per match. Score only 21% of their goals away from home. 

STREAKS - no goal conceded in last 2 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a real headscratcher. Why? Well Villa need a home win, they have not had one in 7. The home fans get on the team's back. They feel the pressure and dread playing at home. Fulham continue their struggles away from home, but have posted wins against 16th and 20th ( Villa are 15th) and are playing Villa at the right time ( i.e struggling at home).The 23% overs stats for Fulham away is really standout and hints, more than anything, at a Fulham side finding it tough to score away. Indeed Only 21% of their total goals this season have come away from home. Only 1 defeat in 6 might see Fulham get something, but they'll need to resolve their away goalscoring blues.
Villa have conceded in last 9 home matches.
Do we back the 0-0 initially as  a back to lay trade given Fulham's poor away goalscoring record?

3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
14.08.2011PRStoke City0-0Chelsea FC
02.04.2011PRStoke City1-1Chelsea FC
28.08.2010PRChelsea FC2-0Stoke City
25.04.2010PRChelsea FC7-0Stoke City
07.03.2010CupChelsea FC2-0Stoke City
12.09.2009PRStoke City1-2Chelsea FC
Chelsea have historically won to nil when Stoke visit.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 9th - so 2 top 10 sides meet. beware Chelsea new manager syndrome. The , ahem, clears throat, capable Roberto Di Matteo who really, ahem, worked, cough, wonders at West Brom.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Chelsea

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLLWWDLWDW - defeat at home v Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa. Draws against Man Utd and Fulham. Playing 9th today and have beaten 10th to 14th inclusive at home.  Only 1 defeat in last 7 at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDDLWWDDDLWL - 4 of last 6 draws came away from home. This shows the kind of form that cost " Oh arse" his job. Last 2 defeats away from home. 

GOAL TRENDS - 85% overs at home is a standout stat. Have scored in all home matches. Have conceded in 10 out of 11 matches at home v top 15.Fat Frank and Mata top scorers at home.

STREAKS - have scored in last 13 at home. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Stoke

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLLLLWWLWDLL - all wins away have come outside the top 9. Have lost to 1st, 3rd, 4th and 8th at home conceding 3-2-3-2. 0-0 v Liverpool I suppose is something Stoke would strive for today. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDDWDLLLLWW - last 2 wins came at home v Swansea and Norwich. 0-0 with Chelsea at home this season again a reminder of the 0-0 away at Liverpool.

GOAL TRENDS - 54% overs away from home. Have only scored 9 goals away in 13 this season. 4 of last 6 matches under 2.5 goals. Peter Crouch with 4 away goals the only real goalscorer away.

STREAKS - 3 away without a win, no draw in 6 overall

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I don't really like " new manager" games. Sudden tactical and personnel changes may produce the gold they are looking for, or leave them head down in the dirt. What is it to be today? Form wise, Chelsea should win by 2 or 3 goals, with a chance of a clean sheet as Stoke have shown a distinct lack of away goals this season - 9 in total. 0-0 could be backable if Stoke bring the bus with them.Expectation as usual with Chelsea is for more goals 2nd half than 1st half.
Strong overs trend from Chelsea at home in particular. Again I reiterate that Matteo's game plan might be a lot different to "Oh Arse"'s 

3pm - Southampton v Barnsley - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011LChBarnsley FC0-1Southampton
10.01.2009LChBarnsley FC0-1Southampton
20.09.2008LChSouthampton0-0Barnsley FC
29.12.2007LChBarnsley FC2-2Southampton
Only 1 head to head of any relevance sees a marginal away win for Saints. They'd take that today with West HAm hitting some unbeaten form.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 17th - Hammers a game in hand and only a point behind so crucial Saints win home matches they are expected to win. They need Le God back.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Saints

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWWWWWWDWLLDWWD - slight wobble of late after superb winning streak. defeats at home v 11th and 20th. Draws against 5th, 8th and 15th, all score draws.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLDDWDWWWD - 2 of last 3 defeats were the only 2 home defeats this season. Since then, an unbeaten run of 8 augurs well for the run in tussle with the Hamsters.

GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs at home a little inconclusive. 0.72 conceded at home on average and 2.11 scored. Lambert is the key goalscorer for Saints. IF he is missing, think again. do Prado is also needed for goals at home. Saints have scored 23 and conceded 7 in first 1/2 hour of matches. 

STREAKS - 4 at home without defeat, 8 overall. Have scored in last 4 at home and last 6 overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Barnsley

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDDDLLLWWLLWLLLL - no draw in 12 away from home. 1-0 loss to 2nd away, 1-2 win v 3rd and 2-0 loss to 4th . An ability to keep West Ham to 1 goal might signal a special set up against top teams away from home.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWLWLLWLLDL - 3 of last 4 wins have come at home . Against top 8 home and away, it's 8 defeats, a 1-1 away draw v Brum and a 1-2 win v Reading away. Note 1-0 home to Saints loss and 1-0 away loss to West HAm.

GOAL TRENDS - 35% overs away from home. 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals. Only 2 clean sheets in last 23 matches. 63% of points at earned at home. Have conceded a whopping 26 goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches this season. 

STREAKS - no draw in 12 away. Have conceded in last 14 away 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 2 defeats at home for Saints, and no draw in 12 away for Barnsley could lead us to conclude a home win is more likely than anything else. Unbeaten run of 8 overall for Saints should see them come away from this match with something. 8 defeats, 1 draw and 1 win for Barnsley home and away v top 8. Do note 1-0 defeats when playing Saints and West Ham  - is that just a coincidence? 35% overs away from home suggest an ability to keep it tight for a short while. If tight coming to the last 1/2 hour, BArnsley are more likely to concede.
If you are keen on saints at home, then confidence will really be boosted by the presence of Ricky Lambert and Do Prado as they are best at home.

3pm - Sunderland v Liverpool - 2.06 away
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011PRLiverpool FC1-1Sunderland AFC
20.03.2011PRSunderland AFC0-2Liverpool FC
25.09.2010PRLiverpool FC2-2Sunderland AFC
28.03.2010PRLiverpool FC3-0Sunderland AFC
17.10.2009PRSunderland AFC1-0Liverpool FC
03.03.2009PRLiverpool FC2-0Sunderland AFC
Again we have new manager syndrome for Sunderland which may impact performance.
LEAGUE POSITION- 12th v 7th. A win could take Sunderland provisionally 8th dependent on other results. 

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Sunderland

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWDDDLWDWWWL - defeats have come against 4th, 5th, 6th and 20th. Note playing 7th today!!! Top teams a step too far? Last 3 wins against Man City ( 90th minute win 1-0), Swansea and Norwich. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWLWWWLLD - 2 recent defeats against Arsenal ( unlucky 90th minute Henry winner), West Brom 4-0 drubbing, and a 1-1 away draw v Newcastle a sign of decline under O'Neill? Against top 7 home and away, 1 win was a 1-0 home win v Sunderland, 7 defeats, and that 1-1 away draw v Newcastle.

GOAL TRENDS - 62% overs at home. 4 of last 7 unders. 

STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw. HAve scored in last 7 at home.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Liverpool

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLWWWLWDLLWL - 3 away defeats in last 4 against Man City, Bolton, and Man United. The win was against Wolves. Not the most enticing recent away form. Liverpool have beaten 10th, 13th and 15th 0-2 away. A good gauge re 12th? Only 1 draw away from home was against Wigan. Is this an angle in?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDDWLDLWDLL  - only 1 win in last 7 for Liverpool again hints at a slight lack of form. Tough recent fixtures against Tottenham, Man Utd and Arsenal.

GOAL TRENDS - 46% overs away from home. 6 overs in last 8 matches. 4 of those overs were courtesy of the opposition scoring 2+.No great shakes scoring away. Top scorer away for Liverpool scored 3. 

STREAKS - 4 away without a draw. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is another tough game to decipher. Defeats for Sunderland at home have come against 4th, 5th, 6th and 20th - playing 7th today. 3 home wins in last 4 against Man City, Swansea and Norwich. Overs has a chance it would seem with 62% for Sunderland and 6 overs in last 8 for Liverpool. Liverpool are out of form with 1 win in 7. This is a messy match and one I really cannot get an angle on. Only one draw away for Liverpool enough to lay the draw?

3pm - West Ham v Doncaster - 1.39 home
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011LChDoncaster Rovers0-1West Ham
West Ham would love a 1-0 today as Southampton seem to have a winnable home match as well.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 23rd - or 2nd top v 2nd bottom

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Ham

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLWWDWLWWWWDDD - 3 consecutive draws = 6 points dropped. This has to end for West Ham and against 2nd bottom, this logically presents an ideal opportunity for this sequence to end. Only 3 defeats away from home, 2 0-1 against Cardiff and Ipswich care of 89th and 90th minute goals.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLWWWLWDWDWD - only 1 loss in last 10 for West Ham and the last 3 draws have come at home.7 wins in 7 matches against bottom 4. 1-0 win at home v 3rd bottom.

GOAL TRENDS - 47% overs throughout the season. Concede on average 1 per match all season.Have scored 18 and conceded 5 in the first half hour of matches this season. Note that West Ham have not conceded in the 16th to 30th minutes of any matches this season. 4 of last 5 matches overs down largely to the draws. Have failed to score  in only 2 of last 19 matches 

STREAKS - 3 match home drawing streak. No defeat in 7 at home and 6 overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Doncaster

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLWLLWLLLLLLLW - no draw away for Doncaster this season.Wins against 15th, 18th and 21st. Against top 8, 2-0 loss to 3rd, and 2-1 losses to 5th, 6th, 7th and 2-0 v 8th. All defeats away have been by 2+ goals.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWDLDLLDDW - wins recently against 17th and 21st. Sole win, 1-0 at home against Southampton  in 15 matches home and away against top 10. 10 defeats there, and 4 draws. 

GOAL TRENDS - 77% overs away from home logically from opponents' ability to score 2+. Have conceded 25 goals in last 1/2 hour of matches. Concede 69% of goals in 2nd half.

STREAKS - have scored and conceded in last 5 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 3 consecutive draws must end for West Ham at home and this logically is an ideal match. Doncaster have lost 10 , and drawn 4 of their 15 matches home and away v top 10. Away from home, defeats have been by 2+ goals and they are yet to draw away.
So , no draw away plays 3 consecutive draws at home should equal home win. What do you think? Overs looks logical too as Donny concede 2+ in those away defeats. Perhaps do with over 3.5 goals for value and a little more speculative.

3pm - Wolves v Blackburn - 2.4 home - welcome to another toughie in a tough weekend of Premiership fixtures.
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011PRBlackburn Rovers1-2Wolverhampton
22.05.2011PRWolverhampton2-3Blackburn Rovers
04.12.2010PRBlackburn Rovers3-0Wolverhampton
24.04.2010PRWolverhampton1-1Blackburn Rovers
12.09.2009PRBlackburn Rovers3-1Wolverhampton
One thing we might be able to latch onto is the goals here. Overs a reasonable call?
LEAGUE POSITION - 18th v 17th, same points total, and another one of those relegation 6 pointers which is too hard to call for me and of no real interest from a trading perspective.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Wolves

RECENT HOME FORM - WLLLDWWLDLLLL - wins against Fulham, Sunderland and Wigan.4 consecutive home defeats against Chelsea, Villa, Liverpool and West Brom.5 defeats in last 6 at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDDDLDLLWLDL - only 5 wins all season and only 1 win in last 13. Against bottom 5 home and away, 3 wins , a draw and a 0-3 home loss v QPR. 

GOAL TRENDS - 85% overs at home. Have failed to score in the first 1/4 hour of all matches this season. 2.07 conceded overall on average. Last 6 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 4 match home losing streak. Have conceded in last 12 at home and last 24 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Blackburn

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLDDDLLDWDLL - only 1 win away a 2-3 v Man Utd. Against bottom 14 away, 6 score draws and 3 defeats. Could signal both teams scoring today. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWLWDLLWLD - against bottom 5, have lost 2, drawn 2 and won 1 3-2 home win v QPR home and away. inconsistent form of late.

GOAL TRENDS - 70% overs away from home. Average 2.22 conceded per match all season. Have conceded in every match this season. Have failed to score in only 5 this season.

STREAKS - have conceded in last 13 away and last 27 overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -Wolves have conceded in last 24 and Blackburn in last 27 overall. 85% and 70% overs figures suggests the obvious. The only stumbling block being that this is a 6 pointer must win relegation dog fight match!Will Blackburn continue to draw? Will Wolves post the kind of positive results they have collected against bottom 6 sides? 

3pm - Atromitos v Doxa Dramas - 1.42 home - 1-0 loss for Doxa again? Refreshingly readable!
HEAD TO HEADS
no head to heads
LEAGUE POSITION- 5th v 16th - Atromitos having a good season.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Atromitos

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWDWWWDLW - only 1 loss at home was a 0-1, and that is the only result , I suggest, that will see a Doxa win.Have played 5 of bottom 6 at home and won all of them. 2 1-0's against 12th and 13th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWLWDLLDWWW - Struggled to score a goal in 3, but that has changed recently with 1-3-2-2 scored and 3 wins. Unbeaten home and away v bottom 6.

GOAL TRENDS - 27% overs at home. 0.54 conceded at home on average.

STREAKS - have scored in last 4 overall and conceded in last 6 overall. 4 overall without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Doxa

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLLLWLL - sole win away to 3rd bottom 0-2. Have failed to score in 8 away matches and tight generally against top sides. 6-0 loss to 1st, 1-0 loss to 2nd, 0-0 draw with 4th, 1-0 loss to 6th and playing 5th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWLLWWLLWL - no draw in 12 overall. 3 of last 4 scorelines 1-0. 

GOAL TRENDS - 27% overs away from home identical to Atromitos at home. 73% of points are earned at home. Have scored in only 7 of 22 matches this season. Score an average 0.36 away from home.

STREAKS - 6 away without a draw, 12 overall

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - against top sides, yes Doxa unlikely to win, but they go down in tight matches. Under 2.5 goals very obvious. 1st half under 1.5 goals could be a value play. I did this in the last Doxa match. 0-0 back to lay trade and hope that these appalling goals %'s are accurate and Atromitos have trouble scoring.
Atromitos could be backable later in the match if it remains 0-0 for a while. Doxa are unlikely to score away from home and they have only score in 7 of 22 matches all season.

5pm - Galatasaray v Genclerbirligi - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
03.12.2011D1Genclerbirligi0-1Galatasaray SK
14.05.2011D1Genclerbirligi2-3Galatasaray SK
11.12.2010D1Galatasaray SK0-2Genclerbirligi
16.05.2010D1Genclerbirligi2-1Galatasaray SK
19.12.2009D1Galatasaray SK1-0Genclerbirligi
17.05.2009D1Galatasaray SK2-1Genclerbirligi
A tight away win last time, because Gala the team to beat and teams at home set up differently against league leaders?
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 5th -2 top 5 sides. 66 points for Gala and 44 for Gencl.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - galatasary

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLDWWWWWWDWW - sole defeat at home against 13th back in October 2011. 8 wins and a draw in last 9 home matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWLDWWWWW - 4 of 6 draws this season have been 0-0.

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

530pm - Augsburg v Dortmund - 1.45 away
HEAD TO HEADS
01.10.2011D1Borussia Dortmund4-0FC Augsburg

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

530pm - Everton v Tottenham - 2.62 away
HEAD TO HEADS
11.01.2012PRTottenham2-0Everton FC
05.01.2011PREverton FC2-1Tottenham
23.10.2010PRTottenham1-1Everton FC
28.02.2010PRTottenham2-1Everton FC
06.12.2009PREverton FC2-2Tottenham
27.10.2009LCTottenham2-0Everton FC

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

6pm - Braga v Leiria - 1.27 home
HEAD TO HEADS
02.10.2011D1Uniao Leiria1-0Sporting Braga
01.05.2011D1Sporting Braga0-0Uniao Leiria
04.12.2010D1Uniao Leiria3-1Sporting Braga
10.04.2010D1Uniao Leiria1-2Sporting Braga
24.01.2010LCSporting Braga4-1Uniao Leiria
30.11.2009D1Sporting Braga2-0Uniao Leiria

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

645pm - Heracles v ADO Den Haag - 1.47 home
HEAD TO HEADS
09.12.2011D1ADO Den Haag2-0Heracles Almelo
15.05.2011D1Heracles Almelo3-0ADO Den Haag
25.09.2010D1ADO Den Haag3-2Heracles Almelo
02.05.2010D1Heracles Almelo4-2ADO Den Haag
13.12.2009D1ADO Den Haag1-4Heracles Almelo
17.01.2009D1ADO Den Haag2-2Heracles Almelo

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

745pm - Heerenveen v Excelsior - 1.18 home
HEAD TO HEADS
10.12.2011D1SBV Excelsior0-5SC Heerenveen
02.04.2011D1SC Heerenveen2-3SBV Excelsior
16.01.2011CFSC Heerenveen1-2SBV Excelsior
30.10.2010D1SBV Excelsior0-2SC Heerenveen
20.04.2008D1SC Heerenveen5-0SBV Excelsior
15.09.2007D1SBV Excelsior2-5SC Heerenveen

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

815pm - Porto v Academica - 1.16 home
HEAD TO HEADS
19.11.2011CupAcadémica Coimbra3-0FC Porto
02.10.2011D1Académica Coimbra0-3FC Porto
20.03.2011D1FC Porto3-1Académica Coimbra
30.10.2010D1Académica Coimbra0-1FC Porto
13.03.2010D1Académica Coimbra1-2FC Porto
10.02.2010LCFC Porto1-0Académica Coimbra

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

9pm - Betis v Real Madrid - 1.49 away
HEAD TO HEADS
15.10.2011D1Real Madrid4-1Real Betis
21.02.2009D1Real Madrid6-1Real Betis
27.09.2008D1Real Betis1-2Real Madrid
16.02.2008D1Real Betis2-1Real Madrid
27.09.2007D1Real Madrid2-0Real Betis
15.08.2007CFReal Betis1-0Real Madrid

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

No comments: