Wednesday 14 March 2012

14/3

5pm - Doxa Dramas v Atromitos  - 1.76 away - didn't these 2 just meet? I did the research last week which was spot on. But the teams are changed - away side now at home and home side now away so it warrants new research.
HEAD TO HEADS
10.03.2012D1Atromitos2-0Doxa Dramas

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th v 5th and Atromitos can go provisionally 3rd with a win. 

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team  -Doxa

RECENT HOME FORM - DLLLDLWLWLW - LW sequence of late will be a L if continuing. Wins have come against 6th, 12th and 13th , 2 of them 1-0's which would be perfect for Doxa today.Unders at home v top 6 ( Atromitos are 5th) includes that 1-0 v 5th. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLLWWLLWLL - no draw in 13 overall for Doxa. 3 of last 4 wins came at home. 4 of Doxa's last 6 defeats were 1-0.

GOAL TRENDS - 18% overs at home and 22% overs overall this season. Very strong, of course, under 2.5 goals trend recently.Doxa have failed to score in 18 of their last 23 matches,73% of Doxa's points have been earned at home. 

STREAKS - 6 at home without a draw, and 13 overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Atromitos

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDDLLLLDWW - losses have come against 1st, 2nd , 3rd and 9th away - the inference is that the better teams are too good.Draws against 4th bottom and 3rd bottom.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWDLLDWWWW - 4 match winning streak sees 2 away wins 1-2.They have scored 2+ in last 4 matches. 

GOAL TRENDS - 46% overs away from home . 3 of last 4 over 2.5 goals saw both teams score.

STREAKS - have conceded in last 8 away matches. 4 match winning streak overall. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - we have such a recent match which went as predicted. i.e. 0-0 for a concerted period then Doxa concede as usual, and another successful under 2.5 goals match.
18% overs at home for Doxa standout. Doxa have failed to score in 18 of last 23 which really tells us it is more likely to be a 0-0 or defeat to nil. 13 overall without a draw suggests the latter. BUT what do we make of the fact Doxa have earned 73% of their points at home ( but only 15 points earned so let's not get carried away).
Best case of Doxa a 1-0 , so perhaps a cover bet on that . Unders generally against top 6 sides. 4 match winning streak for Atromitos and no reason this should not continue eventually.
1-0, 0-1, 0-2 potential correct scores.

745pm - Chelsea v Napoli - 1.85 home - why the sudden attack of optimism?
HOME TEAM
RECENT HOME FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Tue06/12/11UCLChelsea3 - 0ValenciaView eventsMore info
Mon12/12/11PRLChelsea2 - 1Manchester CityView eventsMore info
Mon26/12/11PRLChelsea1 - 1FulhamView eventsMore info
Sat31/12/11PRLChelsea1 - 3Aston VillaView eventsMore info
Sun08/01/12FACChelsea4 - 0PortsmouthView eventsMore info
Sat14/01/12PRLChelsea1 - 0SunderlandView eventsMore info
Sun05/02/12PRLChelsea3 - 3Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat18/02/12FACChelsea1 - 1Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Sat25/02/12PRLChelsea3 - 0Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sat10/03/12PRLChelsea1 - 0Stoke City
Reasonably strong home form of late. Man Utd draw should never have been . No defeat in 2012 at home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Sat14/01/12PRLChelsea1 - 0SunderlandView eventsMore info
Sat21/01/12PRLNorwich City0 - 0ChelseaMore info
Sat28/01/12FACQueens Park Ra…0 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue31/01/12PRLSwansea City1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sun05/02/12PRLChelsea3 - 3Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Sat11/02/12PRLEverton2 - 0ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat18/02/12FACChelsea1 - 1Birmingham CityView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLNapoli3 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat25/02/12PRLChelsea3 - 0Bolton WanderersView eventsMore info
Sat03/03/12PRLWest Bromwich …1 - 0ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue06/03/12FACBirmingham City0 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sat10/03/12PRLChelsea1 - 0Stoke City

last 3 defeats away from home for Chelsea. Note the concession of only 1 goal in last 4 matches. As to the opposition and their strength relative to Napoli, well that's another thing.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
RECENT OVERALL FORM

Tue22/02/11UCLKøbenhavn0 - 2ChelseaView eventsMore info
Wed16/03/11UCLChelsea0 - 0KøbenhavnMore info
Wed06/04/11UCLChelsea0 - 1Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Tue12/04/11UCLManchester United2 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue13/09/11UCLChelsea2 - 0Bayer LeverkusenView eventsMore info
Wed28/09/11UCLValencia1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Wed19/10/11UCLChelsea5 - 0GenkView eventsMore info
Tue01/11/11UCLGenk1 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Wed23/11/11UCLBayer Leverkusen2 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLChelsea3 - 0ValenciaView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLNapoli3 - 1Chelsea

It's all about context here, hence the 1.85 for Chelsea at home. 3-1 down. 1 away goal could be priceless. 3-0 home win v Valencia quite eyecatching here.
RECENT HOME FORM

Wed21/10/09UCLChelsea4 - 0Atlético MadridView eventsMore info
Tue08/12/09UCLChelsea2 - 2APOELView eventsMore info
Tue16/03/10UCLChelsea0 - 1InternazionaleView eventsMore info
Tue28/09/10UCLChelsea2 - 0Olympique Mars…View eventsMore info
Wed03/11/10UCLChelsea4 - 1Spartak MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue23/11/10UCLChelsea2 - 1ŽilinaView eventsMore info
Wed16/03/11UCLChelsea0 - 0KøbenhavnMore info
Wed06/04/11UCLChelsea0 - 1Manchester UnitedView eventsMore info
Tue13/09/11UCLChelsea2 - 0Bayer LeverkusenView eventsMore info
Wed19/10/11UCLChelsea5 - 0GenkView eventsMore info
Tue06/12/11UCLChelsea3 - 0Valencia


Chelsea have conceded only 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League matches. They need a clean sheet tonight or it's realistically all over. A new manager could see a new impetus. I have seen Di Matteo choosing the likes of Kalou and Obi Mikel.
AWAY TEAM - NAPOLI
RECENT AWAY FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Wed07/12/11UCLVillarreal0 - 2NapoliView eventsMore info
Sun11/12/11SEANovara1 - 1NapoliView eventsMore info
Sun08/01/12SEAPalermo1 - 3NapoliView eventsMore info
Sun22/01/12SEASiena1 - 1NapoliView eventsMore info
Sun29/01/12SEAGenoa3 - 2NapoliView eventsMore info
Sun05/02/12SEAMilan0 - 0NapoliView eventsMore info
Thu09/02/12COISiena2 - 1NapoliView eventsMore info
Fri17/02/12SEAFiorentina0 - 3NapoliView eventsMore info
Sun04/03/12SEAParma1 - 2Napoli
Napoli's interest in the Copa Italia? Loss to Genoa in Seria A very close. Genoa were 3-0 up. Chelsea should focus on this match and take a look at it. What went wrong with Napoli?
RECENT OVERALL FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Wed01/02/12SEANapoli0 - 0CesenaMore info
Sun05/02/12SEAMilan0 - 0NapoliView eventsMore info
Thu09/02/12COISiena2 - 1NapoliView eventsMore info
Mon13/02/12SEANapoli2 - 0ChievoView eventsMore info
Fri17/02/12SEAFiorentina0 - 3NapoliView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLNapoli3 - 1ChelseaView eventsMore info
Sun26/02/12SEANapoli1 - 0InternazionaleView eventsMore info
Sun04/03/12SEAParma1 - 2NapoliView eventsMore info
Fri09/03/12SEANapoli6 - 3Cagliari

6 match winning run for Napoli must instill confidence in the team . They conceded 3 at home last match, again something for Chelsea to latch onto.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
RECENT OVERALL FORM

Wed14/09/11UCLManchester City1 - 1NapoliView eventsMore info
Tue27/09/11UCLNapoli2 - 0VillarrealView eventsMore info
Tue18/10/11UCLNapoli1 - 1Bayern MünchenView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLBayern München3 - 2NapoliView eventsMore info
Tue22/11/11UCLNapoli2 - 1Manchester CityView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLVillarreal0 - 2NapoliView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLNapoli3 - 1Chelsea

Relative newcomers to the Champions League. Only aberration against BAyern, but a fine performance to score 2 away.
RECENT AWAY FORM

Wed14/09/11UCLManchester City1 - 1NapoliView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLBayern München3 - 2NapoliView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLVillarreal0 - 2Napoli


7Little real away form in the CL to go on. Man City far better than Chelsea but naive in Europe.

Again this is a one off match and contextually, Chelsea need a 2-0 to go through on away goal. It really is priceless.
Napoli ( typically Italian defensively?) need a 0-0, 1-0 loss, 0-1 win to go through. Who will out today? Key areas? No defeat at home for Chelsea 2012. Only conceded 1 in last 4 .Chelsea have conceded only 1 in last 5 at home in Champions League.6 match winning run for Napoli.Have conceded in 4 of last 5 CL matches.

45pm - Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow - 1.13 home

HOME TEAM
RECENT HOME FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Tue03/01/12CDRReal Madrid3 - 2MálagaView eventsMore info
Sat07/01/12PRDReal Madrid5 - 1GranadaView eventsMore info
Wed18/01/12CDRReal Madrid1 - 2BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Sun22/01/12PRDReal Madrid4 - 1Athletic ClubView eventsMore info
Sat28/01/12PRDReal Madrid3 - 1Real ZaragozaView eventsMore info
Sun12/02/12PRDReal Madrid4 - 2LevanteView eventsMore info
Sat18/02/12PRDReal Madrid4 - 0Racing SantanderView eventsMore info
Sun04/03/12PRDReal Madrid5 - 0Espanyol
No draw in 20. Only 2 defeats in 20 against barcelona.
RECENT OVERALL FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Wed18/01/12CDRReal Madrid1 - 2BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Sun22/01/12PRDReal Madrid4 - 1Athletic ClubView eventsMore info
Wed25/01/12CDRBarcelona2 - 2Real MadridView eventsMore info
Sat28/01/12PRDReal Madrid3 - 1Real ZaragozaView eventsMore info
Sat04/02/12PRDGetafe0 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Sun12/02/12PRDReal Madrid4 - 2LevanteView eventsMore info
Sat18/02/12PRDReal Madrid4 - 0Racing SantanderView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLCSKA Moskva1 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Sun26/02/12PRDRayo Vallecano0 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Sun04/03/12PRDReal Madrid5 - 0EspanyolView eventsMore info
Sat10/03/12PRDReal Betis2 - 3Real Madrid

More vulnerable away from home. 1-1 against CSKA and that important away goal could be , yet again, priceless.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
RECENT OVERALL FORM

Wed13/04/11UCLTottenham Hotspur0 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Wed27/04/11UCLReal Madrid0 - 2BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Tue03/05/11UCLBarcelona1 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Wed14/09/11UCLDinamo Zagreb0 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Tue27/09/11UCLReal Madrid3 - 0AjaxView eventsMore info
Tue18/10/11UCLReal Madrid4 - 0Olympique LyonView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLOlympique Lyon0 - 2Real MadridView eventsMore info
Tue22/11/11UCLReal Madrid6 - 2Dinamo ZagrebView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLAjax0 - 3Real MadridView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLCSKA Moskva1 - 1Real Madrid

5 clean sheets in last 7 for REal. Again, apart from CSKA, Barca the thorns in the side.
RECENT HOME FORM

Wed25/11/09UCLReal Madrid1 - 0ZürichView eventsMore info
Wed10/03/10UCLReal Madrid1 - 1Olympique LyonView eventsMore info
Wed15/09/10UCLReal Madrid2 - 0AjaxView eventsMore info
Tue19/10/10UCLReal Madrid2 - 0MilanView eventsMore info
Wed08/12/10UCLReal Madrid4 - 0AuxerreView eventsMore info
Wed16/03/11UCLReal Madrid3 - 0Olympique LyonView eventsMore info
Tue05/04/11UCLReal Madrid4 - 0Tottenham HotspurView eventsMore info
Wed27/04/11UCLReal Madrid0 - 2BarcelonaView eventsMore info
Tue27/09/11UCLReal Madrid3 - 0AjaxView eventsMore info
Tue18/10/11UCLReal Madrid4 - 0Olympique LyonView eventsMore info
Tue22/11/11UCLReal Madrid6 - 2Dinamo Zagreb


It's those buggers Barca again spoiling the Real Madrid show! 8 clean sheets in last 11 and scoring 4-3-4-0-3-4-6 in recent CL home matches.
AWAY TEAM - CSKA
RECENT AWAY FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Sun31/07/11PRLKrasnodar1 - 1CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Sat13/08/11PRLRubin Kazan'1 - 1CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Sun28/08/11PRLSpartak Moskva2 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed14/09/11UCLLille2 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Sun18/09/11PRLRostov1 - 1CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Sun02/10/11PRLKuban' Krasnodar0 - 0CSKA MoskvaMore info
Sun23/10/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala3 - 5CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLTrabzonspor0 - 0CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Sun06/11/11PRLLokomotiv Moskva1 - 1CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Sun27/11/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala2 - 1CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLInternazionale1 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue24/01/12CLFReal Murcia2 - 0CSKA Moskva
A friendly against a recent Spanish side called "Real" lol, ends with a 1-2 away win which CSKA will take today. Unlikely to win it would seem away from home but could draw?

RECENT OVERALL FORM IN ALL COMPETITIONS

Wed07/12/11UCLInternazionale1 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue24/01/12CLFReal Murcia2 - 0CSKA MoskvaMore info
Mon30/01/12CLFCSKA Moskva1 - 0VideotonMore info
Fri03/02/12CLFCSKA Moskva0 - 1Guangzhou Ever…More info
Mon06/02/12CLFCSKA Moskva1 - 0Krylya SovetovMore info
Thu09/02/12CLFCSKA Moskva2 - 0Politehnica Ti…More info
Thu16/02/12CLFCSKA Moskva2 - 2Shakhtar DonetskMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLCSKA Moskva1 - 1Real MadridView eventsMore info
Sat03/03/12PRLCSKA Moskva2 - 2ZenitView eventsMore info
Fri09/03/12PRLCSKA Moskva1 - 1Dinamo Moskva

Those draws reappear and of course a score draw is just perfect for CSKA tonight.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
RECENT OVERALL FORM

Wed31/03/10UCLInternazionale1 - 0CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue06/04/10UCLCSKA Moskva0 - 1InternazionaleView eventsMore info
Wed14/09/11UCLLille2 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue27/09/11UCLCSKA Moskva2 - 3InternazionaleView eventsMore info
Tue18/10/11UCLCSKA Moskva3 - 0TrabzonsporView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLTrabzonspor0 - 0CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue22/11/11UCLCSKA Moskva0 - 2LilleView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLInternazionale1 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue21/02/12UCLCSKA Moskva1 - 1Real Madrid

To be honest my 7 year old nephew's Saturday team could beat the current Inter Milan so that win not really a shock. It seems CSKA generally struggle for positive results in this competition.
RECENT AWAY FORM

Tue15/09/09UCLWolfsburg3 - 1CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue03/11/09UCLManchester United3 - 3CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue08/12/09UCLBeşiktaş1 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Tue16/03/10UCLSevilla1 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed31/03/10UCLInternazionale1 - 0CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed14/09/11UCLLille2 - 2CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed02/11/11UCLTrabzonspor0 - 0CSKA MoskvaView eventsMore info
Wed07/12/11UCLInternazionale1 - 2CSKA Moskva

Reasonable away form for CSKA should be noted.

The odds suggest that Real will win by 3/4 or even a BAyern score!!!!
Mourinho in the team suggests they will focus on not conceding. He is an expert on the Champions League.
CSKA's away form in the Champions League is very interesting. It is advantage Real though with the away goal.

Minimum scorelines
REal Madrid - 0-0, 1-0
CSKA, 0-1.
Laying Real madrid at 1.14 may be a good option but I doubt we will see any movement in price after a concerted 0-0.

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