9/10

Well the odds were unexciting but 1/10 about a 1/20 shot just had to be done - and a 6-0 win was nice.
Alazan won and the betting forecast price was significantly shorter in the live market. This was also the case for Kilt rock in the 700 Kempton whose betting forecast price of evens was 1/2 at the off and he won. So do watch out for this - it signifies a potential gamble.

150 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Verdant, 9/2 Beaumont´s Party, 5/1 Illustrious Prince, 13/2 Moobeyn, 10/1 Sheer Force, 12/1 Shamir, 18/1 Luck Of The Draw, 25/1 Belle Zorro, 28/1 Foxtrot Delta, 33/1 Finch Flyer, Optimistic Duke, 40/1 Old Devil Moon, Vito Volterra,

DIOMED VERDICT: Very-well related VERDANT went close to justifying a massive gamble at Newmarket on debut and should gain compensation here.

Do you remember Verdant? Massive gamble last time out and 2nd place. Seeking redress today. Watch out for Optimistic Duke - debutant now 16/1 ( check out the betting forecast price) - could be worth an each way bet given the horse is a debutant and so this could be insider money. 1.29 to place

200 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mcmurrough, 5/2 Alvarado, 14/1 Aint She The Lady, 20/1 Sunset Song, Weetfromthechaff, 25/1 Tipsy Indian, 33/1 Arran Law, Dowd´s Destiny, Steel Giant, 66/1 Alfie Bet, Cocoa Key, Scrum V, 100/1 Flashy Max, Noble Vic,

DIOMED VERDICT: Dual bumper winner MCMURROUGH has shown more than enough in better company over hurdles to suggest he'll be hard to beat this time.

Betting forecast - only 2 under 14/1 but Ain't she a lady is 6/1 in the live market and Arran Law is 12/1with Paddy Power at time of writing, and 20/1 elsewhere 1.11 to place - onl 3 under 14/1 but that 14/1 might be a market mover Arran Law

340 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Nudge And Nurdle, 5/1 Glingerbank, Some Touch, 7/1 Divine Gift, 10/1 Camden George, Go Silver Bullet, 14/1 High Bird Humphrey, Le Roi Rouge, Portavadie, 20/1 Soubriquet.

DIOMED VERDICT: NUDGE AND NURDLE (nap) won in good fashion at Fontwell last time and is taken to defy a penalty at this stiffer course in a race that should be run to suit.

Nudge is a horse I like - penalty today but has the excellent Paddy Brennan on board - AP won't go away on course and distance winner Glingerbank 1.5 to place

620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Worth A King´S, 6/1 Bushy Dell, Rose Row, 8/1 Leyte Gulf, 10/1 Dayia, Force Group, Jadalee, 12/1 Fin Vin De Leu, 14/1 Haarth Sovereign, 16/1 Chookie Hamilton, 25/1 Aegean Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: WORTH A KING'S (nap) defied this mark with some authority at Epsom last weekend and should be hard to beat.

"hard to beat " selection and a price gapper 1.37 to place
730 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fighting Brave, 7/2 Free Judgement, 9/2 Mister Tee, 7/1 Bobbyscot, 8/1 Dream Deer, Queen Of Troy, Rahya Cass, 10/1 Famous Warrior, 12/1 Miracle Match, 66/1 Lukes Desire.

2 Ballydotle horses in FIghting Brace and Queen of Troy

900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Trojan War, 6/1 Ashka, Big Robert, 8/1 Cluain Alainn, Daasij, 12/1 Bashkirov, Sunwise, 14/1 Sutherland Star, 16/1 Jack Olcott, Mid Mon Lady, 25/1 Askwith.

Another Murtagh/O'Brien favourite and a price gapper 1.41 to place - illiquid market

FOOTBALL

14:00

Serbia U21 vs Cyprus U21

1/4 - 1.31 to win but Cyprus are an emerging nation at Senior Level who played well v Italy and Ireland - goalkeeping error kept Slovaks to 1-0 in Cyprus last match and an inkling that Cyprus are not push overs - Serbia have LOST to Slovakia too 2-1 which is a good form line that leaves me swerving the 1/4

16:00

Iceland U21 vs San Marino U21

1/25 - 1.07 to win -not much interest in the market - let in 14 goals in 2 games and Iceland beat Northern Ireland 6-2 so they have their scoring boots on - always a good sign if entertaining such short odds and an obvious nod towards over 2.5 goals perhaps here (but the markets are frustratingly illiquid) - Ladbrokes 1/9 halftime/fulltime appeals and they are not stupid - NO overs/under markets in this game means they expect goals

17:00

Liechtenstein U21 vs Poland U21

14/1

9/2

1/7 - 1.18 to win - 2-0 to Poland at home - could Leic make it hard to break down at home? I would have expected a bigger scoreline than 2-0 for Poles at home - looking at it the weather played a part in the low scoring so hope for a normal resuption of 3-0 , 4-0 today?

19:15

Germany U21 vs Slovenia U21

1/4 - 1.3 to win - beaten 2-1 by the Czechs at home.BUT Slovenia took 60 minutes to score against Malta and only managed a penalty for the 2nd - not enticing form

19:45

England U21 vs Macedonia U21

1/7 - 1.16 to win - english comeback against MAcedonia last time out at their place ensured a 2-1 win and at 1/7 here we would have liked to have seen more convincing head to heads (I think I was involved in that game from an enhanced bet perspective)-it was also a penalty, not a goal from open play that secured victory.Greece held England to a 1-1 draw, but beat Macedonia 3-1 so a form line there - a game to watch initially then decide - 1/7 is far too short for the Brits here for me

19:50

Malta U21 vs France U21

14/1

9/2

1/7 - 1.17 to win - unlike their senior colleagues, France can find the net and Malta have lost all matches albiet by 1-0 scorelines against Ukraine and Belgium. A good trading game I would say if 0-0 for a concerted period ( expect France to make the breakthrough eventually) or back France and trade out after they score first

Always some good opportunities from international weekend with mismatches throughout

SHORTLIST
150 LINGFIELD - I remember well the big punt on Verdant first time out, and yet again we are having to place our faith in a one time out maiden runner - 1.29 to place here - Ryan Moore takes over - only 3 under 12/1 in the live market but Sheer Force and Optimistic Duke are the market movers. The question we have to answer is " are there 3 horses who will beat Verdant?
All weather debut as well. I put him in the shortlist as he stuck in my mind after the big gamble last time
200 CARLISLE
McMurrough is certainly well fancied early on at 1.11 to place and this race looks like a good potential probability race with only 3 under 20/1 . Arran Law is a potential market mover but the price mentioned above seems to be drifting out.
McMurrough not run since April 2009
620 WOLVES - Worth a King's mentioned because he has the " hard to beat" tag - yes I know it's a rather simplisitc little system but it has served me well. Some 6 hours to the off and with all of the evening races, it is pointless commenting at this stage - will need further investigation nearer the race off as a lot can happen between now and then
This comment applies to both of the Dundalk races which feature Murtagh/O'Brien partnerships. Instinctually, Trojan war seems to have the better chances as I write, but we need to see the market forces in play nearer the off ( this being Ireland the markets are illiquid and messy at time of writing and do not give a good reflection of the proper chances of all horses)
Under 21 football the natural precursor to the senior squads tomorrow. Of course we cannot be as clued up about the under 21's as we can about the senior squads who get far more press and thus offer us far more information with which to make our betting decisions.
Icelandu12 v San Marino u21 looks to have goals in it -the 6-2 beating of Northern Ireland suggests a visit to over 2.5 goals if the market on Betfair becomes a little more lively. 1.07 is reasonable enough and a victory should be assured at home ( my initial niggle was " this is Iceland, not really world beaters, but the 6-2 Northern Ireland persuaded me)
Malta u21 v France u21 - for me a better bet than England at the same odds . England struggled against Macedonia last time ( and because Germans lost 2-1 (German goal was a penalty in the 92nd minute) I have looked over them) Frenchies should score first.
England game looks a good trading game I would think
ONE A DAY
Football wise, for me Franceu21 look to have the necessary goals in them to make a breakthrough against Malta at 1.17. Iceland under 21's over 2.5 goals would have been my bet today ( and may yet be if the very illiquid market picks up)
Verdant would be interesting but a couple of market movers scupper things
McMurrough looks far more solid ,albeit at only 1.11 - only 4 under 25/1 -great probability bet and another horse well backed down to 4/7 in the live market
THe evening bets look very interesting indeed but it's far too early to comment of them without seeing the proper betfiar and live bookie markets
So McMurrough for me today - I had hoped the Iceland game would have been a bit more liquid